AFO #12 - 租船行情 2008.08.08

2008-08-19 14:22  浏览次数 57



Bulk carriers:

Capesize-         Spot market activity is modest and levels are softening marginally as prime holiday seasons and Beijing 2008 Olympic approaches.

Reference route WAust/China stands at a respectable usd 30 pmt, down only some usd 1 pmt in a week, whilst Brazil/China is down some usd 3 pmt to usd 84.50 pmt.

Supply/demand ratio is healthy in the short picture and no dramatic changes expected  with spot average standing at usd 150,000 and forward deals negotiated in the high usd 160,000s, Faith in q3/q4 remains unabated.

Panamaxes-     The Panamax market continued its sliding trend from last week, and the average of the 4 Baltic t/c routes went down around usd 6,000. Both Atlantic and Pacific had a negative trend, and respectively fell around usd 7,000 and usd 5,000. Atlantic round  voyages fixed in the region usd 70,000. 2LL concluded at low usd 70,000 and 1 yr fetched usd 70,800. Fronthaul biz concluded at low usd 80,000.

In the Pacific the RVs were paid mid usd 50,000 and 4-6 months fixed low usd 70,000s. Backhaul fixtures were seen in the low usd 40,000 range.

Handysize-        Rates in the Pacific have continued to slide this week, super types have been fixed in the low 40,000s for Pacific rounds. A 55,000 dwt vsl has fixed usd 45,000 for a trip via Kalimantan to WC India; for trips to EC India the rates will be lower.

Period activity is scare, rumours of a 48k vsl seeing mid usd 50,000s  for 7-9 months which is well above spot rates. A 45,000 dwt non grabber open SE Asia seeking a short trip within Asia is rated in the mid usd 30,000s, which seems low, but with limit duration there is not much out there, and a 53,000 ex China for trips to PG has seen high usd 40,000s. Both WC and EC India are very quiet with few iron ore cargoes moving; one voyage WC India/S.China has been fixed around usd 34 pmt. In he Atlantic the rates are also under pressure.


Crude-               As VLCC activity in the MEG eased off rates came under downward pressure, and with rather less demand and the appearance of more tonnage, charterers were able to attract a number of offers for cargoes they placed in the market. When a major VLCC owner accepted the counter from a major oilco, this automatically resulted in downward correction of 20 percent in MEG/USG rates.

With the suezmax market also wavering, perhaps we can expect somewhat lower VLCC levels in the near future. The WAF suezmax market peaked at ws340 last week, and it appears that charterers’ strategy of holding back is succeeding in bringing rate down. The suezmax market in the MED/Bsea also experienced spectacular highs solidily above the ws400 level last week, but also here charterers appear to have discovered the usefulness of taking a pause, and rates are now on the decline.

Products- The MR market in the Atlantic has continued to fall. 37,000 mtons is today fixed around ws215/220 level. But we might have seen the bottom for now. LR market for same destination is difficult to estimate but we rate it at ws250 basis 60,000 mtons. Handies trading cross UKC have seen rates been steadily around ws 265/270 level. Caribs, basis 38,000 mtons are still being maintained around ws300 level.

High activity with backhaul cargoes from US to UKCM paying ws230 level basis 38,000 mtons. The market for LR1s and LR2s has been very good this week. From the MEG to Japan they have been paid ws305/315 level respectively. And this segment still seems very strong. Benchmark voyage from Singapore to Japan, basis 30,000 mtons is today ws285 a 10 point drop from last week. Short haul cargo in the region, such as South Korea to Japan and Singapore to Hong Kong are unchanged from last week at usd 510,000 and 560,000. 40,000 mtons from South Korea/Japan range to the USC is still around usd 1.7 mark. It seems that the Far East market will continued its strength also next week and hopefully rates have reached their low in the west.

来源:          贸易风81日周刊

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