亚欧线货运前景黯淡
2008.10.06
两星期来亚洲到欧洲的货箱运费一直下跌, 从去年夏天的 usd1,400 到今天的 usd350 per teu, 前景堪忧.
下面两篇来自伦敦劳埃德日报的报导, 2008.09.30 和 10.03, 对眼前的情势作了深入的研讨和报导.
Asia-Europe box rates plummet to new lows
Tuesday 30 September 2008
The Asia-Europe trades have been hit by a slump in high street spending.
FREIGHT rates in the Asia-Europe trades have crashed to record lows as consumer demand continues to crumble, with the crisis compounded by the first signs of customer insolvencies.
A 20 ft container could now be shipped from Hong Kong to Hamburg for as little as $350, excluding surcharges, compared with around $1,400 per teu last summer.
“In all my years in the business, I do not ever remember such difficult trade conditions,” said the trade director of a big Asian line.
“The last two or three weeks have been a nightmare.”
Similar sentiments are being echoed across the industry.
“Has it been as bad as this before? No, not in my 20 years,” the trade manager at another global carrier concurred.
“This is a price war, and we have not seen the bottom yet.”
To make matters worse, lines are coming under pressure to quote all-in prices rather that split ocean rates from currency, bunker and terminal handling surcharges. As rates slide, so they are also starting to incorporate the additional charges that were being levied separately.
The Asia-Europe trades, which were the big moneyspinner for container lines last year as volumes expanded by more than 20% and freight rates soared, have been hit by a slump in high street spending that has pushed year-on-year growth close to zero.
The slowdown coincides with the start of a huge newbuilding delivery programme. Analysts are being forced to re-calculate their forecasts for the year as the supply-demand gap continues to widen.
Adding to the extreme trading conditions are demands on lines from shippers for extended credit as the banking meltdown hits global commerce.
Late payments are on the increase, and anecdotal reports suggest that non-vessel owning carriers are beginning to be hit by bad debts and bankruptcies among their smaller customers. The fear is that this situation will snowball, with lines now keeping their cash flow under intense scrutiny.
The latest downturn concides with the start of the tender season, when lines will negotiate 12-month contracts with their customers that will lock them in for the coming year.
The sense of alarm was apparent at last week’s Box Club meeting when the heads of the world’s biggest container lines held a series of top level meetings, with rumours rife in the Geneva corridors that some newbuilding orders will be cancelled because of the liquidity squeeze.
That does not seem to have happened yet, but ordering activity has come to a virtual standstill as banks demand that owners contribute up to 30% of newbuilding costs from their own pockets.
But ships of 9,000 teu or more will soon dominate the Asia-Europe trades, with smaller vessels no longer able to compete as freights rates collapse.
Zim is withdrawing a series of 4,200 teu units from this trade lane, with one source estimating that the cost per 20 ft slot on a fully laden 9,000 teu is up to $100 less than for a ship of half that capacity. When rates are high, that difference is not so noticeable, but in today’s market, panamaxes are becoming unviable.
Containership lay-ups “are now becoming a distinct possibility” for the coming winter, a broker predicted today. Lines are now shuffling services, redeploying ships and seeking out new markets as they struggle to restore some normality to one of the premier east-west trades. But that might not be enough to prevent some ships from being left idle, several sources predicted.
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Maersk vows to defend container market share
MAERSK Line is determined to maintain its share of the Asia-Europe trades in the face of a battle for cargo that has sent freight rates crashing.
Chief executive Eivind Kolding has sent out a powerful message warning competitors that Maersk Line is determined to “keep its position” in the market.
Mr Kolding’s clear statement of intent coincided with predictions by Evergreen Group chairman Chang Yung-fa that the world economy would continue to deteriorate for the next three years, reaching the bottom in 2011.
Speaking on Friday at the Evergreen Maritime Museum in Taiwan, Dr Chang defended his decision to steer clear of super-sized containerships until cargo markets pick up.
But when that will happen remains anyone’s guess.
In a written reply to questions about the container trades, Mr Kolding described current freight levels as unsustainable for carriers and customers alike.
“An upwards correction is inevitable. The question is, of course, when this will happen.”
But it is his other remarks that are likely to be scrutinised more closely by rivals.
“The freight levels were reasonable at the beginning of the year and we reacted late to the drop in freight levels in the spring,” said Mr Kolding.
“We have now taken adequate action to ensure that we maintain our position. In essence that means that we match the market levels.”
That appeared to be a veiled reference to a reported decision by lines at a Far Eastern Freight Conference meeting earlier this year to target ship utilisations of around 85% to keep rates stable as new capacity comes on stream.
Lloyd’s List was told by a third party that Maersk Line was one of the very few major carriers to adhere to that agreement, only to find other carriers snatching away its accounts by cutting rates.
Maersk Line, which has adjusted capacity in line with a slowdown in volume growth, then abandoned its policy of restraint to protect its customer base and ensure market share was not eroded, according to market sources.
But the result has been a bloodbath, with spot freight rates plummeting to record lows just as lines begin negotiating 2009 contracts with their big customers.
Dr Chang, who has been warning of hard times to come for more than a year, said he did not expect the $700bn US bank bail-out bill to make much of a difference to global economic prospects for the next few years.
With the increase in tonnage supply now easily outstripping demand growth, Dr Chang said Evergreen was “on the right track” in deciding not to order very big boxships.
New figures from Clarksons Research forecast global container trade growth this year at 7.6%, a marked reduction from earlier projections of 9.3%.
With the container capable fleet expected to expand by 13.4%, the supply-demand differential has widened to 5.8 percentage points.
Even allowing for other factors that will affect both sides of the equation and narrow the real gap, the firm notes that “it seems probable that in the short-term, the fundamentals will continue to exert downwards pressure on the containership market”.
Evergreen recently withdrew from negotiations to take 12,400 teu ships on long-term charter as the outlook darkened, and now has an empty orderbook.
Dr Chang had said earlier that the company would wait for better times and cheaper yard prices before ordering new ships.
Located in central Taipei, the Evergreen Maritime Museum is the largest maritime museum in Taiwan and is administrated by the Chang Yung-Fa Foundation.
