AFO #18 - 航运将告停顿? 2008.10.10

2008-10-11 14:19  浏览次数 192



这是一篇非常震撼人心的报导, 仅刊登于此作为参考之用

Shipping industry comes to a halt

Thursday, 02 October 2008

With the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) falling for yet another day yesterday, all indications are pointing towards a halt on shipping activity, both in terms of cargoes available and investment activity. BDI retreated by almost 6% yesterday, stopping at 3,025 points, down 192 points from Tuesday’s session. Many analysts are now claiming that the beginning of dry bulk trade’s downward cycle has now arrived. In fact, this arrival is earlier than previously anticipated, since most of the industry’s stakeholders were hoping that the boom would last at least until the end of the year and before the massive new building orderbook began pouring into the seas from 2009 forward.
alas, the collapse of the banking sector, the slowdown of the global economy and therefore global trade and the stockmarkets’ meltdown were good enough reasons to speed things up. The credit crunch is now increasingly and in an alarming way spreading to banks with traditional links with shipping. Fortunately, one of the biggest lenders to the industry, Royal Bank of Scotland, was spared by raising 5.5 billion euros early on. But Fortis didn’t escape the subprime bonanza and was rescued in the last minute. Despite that positive development, one thing is certain; Fortis won’t be granting any more loans to ship owners in the near future. Greek ship owners have received loans of approximately $1.5 billion from Fortis. They don’t seem particularly concerned with the banks’ fortunes, since they will keep on paying their dues.
What worries them though is the fact that the banking sector globally is on a collapse spree, while nobody can actually determine how long will this situation last. as long as the crisis persists, the same will apply with the reduction of demand for goods for in the West and in the East. “That’s why steel prices in China are falling (by 17% in June) and the iron ore reserves in Chinese ports remained unchanged from the beginning of September, to 70 million tons” states Mr. George Grigoriadis, Financial analyst at George Moundreas & Co.
No one can blame market analysts in New York who are predicting a similar drop in freight rate levels during the fourth quarter of the year. Tonnage sale and purchase activity is also near zero levels, but not so much, because of difficulties in financing. Of course, difficulties certainly exist, but the defining reason is the uncertainty of this transitional period. Sellers of ships are reluctant to be the first ones to reduce their asking prices, while buyers are afraid they might acquire ships in out of market prices, since the balance between tonnage demand and freight rates is yet cloudy. No wonder why the sale and purchase activity has been scarce. The four-year old shipping “party” is over, but the hangover isn’t…

Hellenic Shipping News

上一篇:AFO #19 - 香港政..    下一篇:AFO #17 - 三副经..