AFO #27 - 印度未能超越中国 2009.05.31

2009-06-01 22:17  浏览次数 24



Is India the new China?

IS INDIA the new China? Could the world’s largest democracy that now has a population on a par with China be the engine of the global recovery?

Share prices in India enjoyed their largest one-day gain in almost two decades following the emphatic victory of the Congress party, with business leaders speculating that economic growth could return to the high levels of recent years.

Furthermore, the India trades appear to be the one bright spot in an otherwise depressed container shipping industry.

European Liner Affairs Association data shows that volumes from Europe to the Middle East and Indian sub-continent actually rose in March.

At a time when just about every other trade lane continues to shrink, there was a 7% increase in liftings to almost 200,000 teu, a considerable improvement on the 5% decline in February.

The better performance in March? that was not replicated in the westbound trades from India, reduced the first quarter contraction in cargo volumes to just 3%. These days, that is good news, especially when compared with the 22% decline in Asia to Europe volumes over the same period.

But for shipping, at least, India is never going to be another China. Container volumes in and out of the country are modest by comparison. Overall, carriers shipped more than 2.6m teu from Asia to Europe in the first quarter, but 505,000 teu from Europe to India/Middle East ports and 344,000 teu in the other direction.

So any growth will do little to drag container lines out of the mire.


来源: 劳氏船务日记

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