世界贸易和船队发展專輯
2013.05.16
本篇文章摘自希腊船务日报4月25日版:
在航运低迷之时处理掉旧船是否正确? 应该更换何种新船? 和更换节省燃料
和环保新船之投资何时可回笼? 这些问题都在考验船东们的智慧.
世上的船队共有三大类: 集装箱船, 干散货船和油轮, 五年内这些船队己增加百分之卅五, 但货物仅提高百分之十四, 造成供过于求之现象, 这种过剩情况在改善之前将会变的更糟………..
Feature: World trade, fleet growth and fuel efficiency
Thursday, 25 April 2013 | 00:00
At what point does it become unviable to continue to operate an older, less-efficient ship in a depressed freight market? And if an older ship is removed from service and sold for scrap, what to replace it with? Are the new generation of so-called eco-friendly ships that much more fuel-efficient than what they are replacing?
Will the new vessel burn less fuel in a cleaner manner to the extent that enables the ship owner to pay back the cost of a new vessel within a reasonable period of time and comply with relevant environmental legislation? Will a decision to scrap and invest in new tonnage ensure a return to profitability in an era of economic uncertainty and stubbornly low freight rates?
These are the questions that are exercising ship owners at a time of persistent over-tonnaging, increasingly strict ship emission controls and faltering trade growth. The answers will differ according to what shipping sector the owner is participating in.
In the LNG carrier trades a modern vessel commands a freight rate premium in the order of 30% over an older vessel. But LNG carriers are a special case. The dual-fuel diesel-electric propulsion systems now chosen for new conventional-size LNGCs mark a major technological leap forward on the relatively inefficient steam turbines that power earlier generations of such ships. Also, today’s typical LNGC newbuild has a cargo-carrying capacity 25-40% greater than that of long-serving vessels.
The LNG carrier market is also different from other shipping sectors in that the demand for such ships is high, as reflected in the buoyancy of the global LNG market and the healthy overall fleet utilisation rate. Even with the reduced freight revenues they command, older LNG carriers are still extremely profitable ships.
It is the owners of container ships, tankers and bulk carriers that face the greatest challenges as they seek to improve their on board energy management and environmental protection practices and match their tonnage offerings with market demands.
The tonnage of the world merchant fleet, comprising primarily these three ship types, has expanded by 35% since 2008 while global trade has grown only 14%. Unfortunately, the oversupply of ships in all three sectors is set to get worse before it gets better. While the amount of tonnage on order remains stubbornly high, forecasts for trade growth and economic output are being revised downwards. The aggregate GDP of the 17-nation Eurozone bloc, for example, is likely to contract by 0.2% in 2013 following a 0.6% shrinkage last year, according to 54 leading economists when their estimates are averaged out.
In the container ship sector operators of major deepsea fleets are going for economies of scale in combination with propulsion systems claimed to be more fuel efficient and less polluting than those which prevailed previously. The new generation of box ships being introduced on the Asia-Europe route are able to carry 18,000 TEUs, over 15% more than the next largest vessels serving this link. Refined hull lines and bow configurations are being utilised, in tandem with reduced service speeds and waste heat recovery arrangements that take energy from engine exhaust gas, to improve propulsion system efficiency.
One operator of these large new container ships claims that their introduction will ensure that 35% less fuel is required to deliver a container compared to the carriage of that box on a 13,000 TEU vessel. Similar reductions in the volume of carbon dioxide emissions generated per box are promised.
The introduction of large new container ships at a time of fleet oversupply, of course, does little to solve the problem of desultory freight revenues unless the overall vessel pool is culled in some way. The operators of the new generation of very large container ships report that their newbuildings are being introduced in a slow, controlled manner to allow an orderly removal of older, smaller ships.
Quite aside from the introduction of these new economy-of-scale vessels, the fleet overcapacity and depressed freight-rate environment that have plagued the container ship sector in recent years have taken their toll. At the beginning of 2012, when the laying up of vessels was at its most intense, over 200 container ships with an aggregate capacity of 550,000 TEU were idled.
As a result of the continued oversupply of vessels, the weakness in the container ship sector has persisted, manifesting itself in other ways. The average value of a five-year old 3,500 TEU ship at the end of 2012 was worth 32% less than at the beginning, while the value of a 15-year-old vessel of the same size was 50% lower.
Many medium-sized container ship players have exited the sector following crippling losses. Some of the more desirable tonnage that suddenly became available was snapped up by the global operators but scrapyards have been busy, recycling older container ships deemed to be uneconomical. Ship demolitions reached a record high last year and such activity will need to be maintained at brisk levels over the 2013-14 period if the tonnage overhang is to be reduced and the box trade depression brought to an end.
Even assuming a reasonable volume of order cancellations and delivery deferrals, newbuilding completions are expected to increase the size of the container ship fleet by 7% in 2013. Ship demolitions this year are expected to come in at about 85% of the record level reached in 2012. However, even at this robust pace nominal box ship overcapacity would still rise by four percentage points in 2013, to 23% of the global fleet. Against this pessimistic background the scrapping of post-Panamax vessels as young as 10 years of age could become a feature, as could a return to the idling of sizeable numbers of ships.
In the bulk carrier and crude oil tanker sectors, too, earnings continue to drag along the bottom, below breakeven levels. While movements of dry bulk commodities could grow by as much as 5% this year, newbuilding deliveries are set to boost the fleet’s cargo-carrying capacity by 7%. Similarly, crude oil tanker tonnage is poised for a climb of 3.4% in 2013 while shipments will only increase by 2.8% over 2012 levels.
The prices for new ships that now pertain, the lowest in a decade, are offering little in the way of consolation to beleaguered owners. They are also enticing speculators and raising the possibility of the ship oversupply scenario being further extended.
The scene is set for the triumph of the bold. Those ship owners with the resources to weather the difficulties of the next few years and prepared to replace older ships with new, more fuel-efficient vessels stand poised to reap the rewards of lower operating costs and increased earnings.
The era of the Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) for new ships and the Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan (SEEMP) for all ships, as mandated in Chapter 4 of the Marine Pollution (MARPOL) Convention’s Annex VI, is now with us. SEEMP establishes, for the first time, a mechanism for operators to improve the energy efficiency of ships.
Meeting the considerable challenge of improving on board energy management is taking ship owners into uncharted waters. Many design, operational and equipment alternatives for boosting fuel efficiency and reducing emissions have been proposed and most have some merit. As those seeking to improve energy efficiency in the home have found, there is no one universal panacea; optimum progress comes from implementing a combination of measures, customised for the particular property.
But what is the best combination? In these straitened times ship owners, with a careful eye on the costs of the various proposed technical solutions, will best be served by a co-operative approach in the search for the most appropriate combination of measures. The establishment of alliances, with like-minded owners, shipbuilders, class, engine manufacturers, equipment suppliers and specialised service providers, offers the best route to a cleaner and more profitable future.
Mike Corkhill is a technical journalist and consultant specialising in oil, gas and chemical transport, including tanker shipping and chemical logistics. A qualified Naval Architect, he has written books on LNG, LPG, chemical and product tankers and is currently the Editor of LNG World Shipping.
Source: BIMCO
