船务中介之前景
2012.04.16
一：本期头条
贸易凤周刊 03月30日
The Future of Shipbroking 隨著世界的经济变迁和挑战船务中介行也必需跟着调整…………….
Shipbroking is constantly having to adjust to meet the challenge of the globalised economy. The traditional model of broking houses being located in a single city serving its domestic market has bee transformed with the emergence of the mega-brokers whose operation now span the globe.
The range of activities has diversified into areas such as derivatives, finance and ship services, with brokers also investing more resources into research to help better serve their clients. But size is not everything, with many brokers still preferring to run niche operations.( 图1).
贸易凤周刊 03月28日
Broking on a bright future 过去25年船务不景气确实对船东和投资者尤其是船务中介业者带来损失,
The worst shipping recession for quarter of a century would have been expected to cause pain for not only shipowners and their investors but also — and perhaps especially so — for shipbrokers.
When rates go down, commission goes down. When asset prices fall, commission falls. When newbuildings are scarce, so is the cut for brokers.
After the “seven years of plenty” during the boom, brokers were facing a real bust.
Yet shipbrokers are proving they are smarter than that. They are proving yet again, for all their quirks and, at times, problems, they offer something the market wants — and is willing to pay for.
Owners and charterers still believe the marginal price of commission is good value when balanced against the opportunities brokers can trade.
It has helped fuel the rise of the global mega-broker, with their integrated research, derivatives platforms and other services, both financial and operational. True niche players have also flourished, using their contacts, personality and knowledge to earn that edge for clients.
Those who face a squeeze are in the middle, of moderate scale but without a cutting focus and lacking the power to invest in value-added services.
For them the crunch may become just that.
Hong Kong loses ground to rivals but not played out yet 香港丧失竞争地位但尚未全输.
Hong Kong was once the thriving broking hub of Asia but nowadays it finds itself in the difficult position of being stuck between the growing broking centres in Singapore and China.
China used to be the bread and butter of Hong Kong brokers. The former UK colony was the bridge shipowners used to cross into the great Chinese hinterland.
Back then, numerous international and Asian broking houses had significant operations in Hong Kong with dry-bulk chartering and sale and purchase (S&P) being the main activities, and boxship chartering not far behind.
Chinese shipowners and charterers had little choice but to use brokers in Hong Kong as the scale of international broking services offered at home was limited.
Singapore did not represent much of a threat as it was considered to be a tanker town and any other broking it did was for the Southeast Asian region. Until then shipbrokers in Singapore rarely targeted China, the goose that was laying Hong Kong’s golden egg. But how all that has changed.
Big-name brokers began making their foray into China about 15 years ago. Initial offices were small, with a handful of staff testing a few specific markets. Being on the ground in China proved extremely successful and soon the flow of brokers entering the country turned into a torrent.
Today almost every major shipbroking company has a presence in China. Most are based in Shanghai and have built substantial operations there. Large teams cover almost all sectors of shipping. Key markets remain dry bulk, S&P and newbuildings but the liquid trades are also gaining prominence.
The target market for brokers based in China is their home turf. Brokers located there say they are kept busy servicing the domestic market and so have little need to go in search of business elsewhere.
At the same time, Singapore quickly established itself as an international shipping centre and was extremely successful in building up its dry-bulk sector.
Suddenly the office towers of Hong Kong were emptying of dry-bulk brokers as desks were shifted to Singapore or Shanghai.
However, it would be incorrect to say Hong Kong has lost its importance on the Asian shipbroking scene, even though it has lost its dominance. Most of the broking majors still maintain a presence in Hong Kong as the city has a large shipowning community. The membership list of the Hong Kong Shipowners’ Association lists 12 large broking shops.
A check of various broking companies in the city shows that S&P has become the mainstay of Hong Kong shipbroking but some still maintain a limited amount of dry chartering.
What the future will bring for the Hong Kong shipbroking scene remains to be seen. Existing players remain, albeit in a reduced form and while they claim to be keeping busy, they readily admit it is unlikely there will be any major growth taking place in the foreseeable future, as most brokers looking to establish operations in Asia immediately think of Singapore or Shanghai.
Singapore comes of age for Asia 新加坡后来居上
Times are good in Singapore with all eyes on opportunities for growth. Singapore has truly come of age as a major international broking hub.
The flood of big shops moving into the city-state has slowed to a trickle but that is only because nearly every medium to large international shipbroker already has an established presence.
Those arriving now tend to be smaller, independent players that want to try their hand in the Asian markets.
The rapid growth of Singapore’s broking scene came about a decade ago, when the government launched an all-out push to make it the shipping centre of Asia. A low-tax environment and a pro-active, business-friendly corporate climate prompted many traders, shipowners and the like to move to Singapore’s shores.
It is not surprising that a vibrant broking community sprung up as well. The big broking players in Singapore have all set up substantial operations. The icing on the cake came in March 2002, when a bastion of UK shipbroking, Howe Robinson, announced it was moving its corporate headquarters to the island nation.
But so far this appears mostly to have been a paperwork exercise, with little effect on its overall day-to-day operations.
Singapore’s own local broking shops have also been riding the wave. A large number of growing, independent, home-grown shops are emerging.
Most have been started by brokers who cut their teeth with the majors and then struck out on their own. Some of these are content to remain small, serving a handful of dedicated clients, while others are growing into sizeable operations.
Some independents are now drawing the interest of the big boys. Island Shipbrokers, one of the largest local brokers, attracted the attention of ICAP back in 2008, when it took a one-third stake in the company. This past February it sealed a deal to acquire the entire operation.
Shipbroking in Singapore now covers the entire shipping spectrum. Business is brisk and highly competitive. While it has been affected by the downturn in the shipping markets, brokers in Singapore are said to be performing better than those based in Europe or elsewhere.
“It is a relief to be here and not in Europe at the moment,” said a Danish broker who has been in Singapore for the past five years.
With most of the players who need to be in Singapore already here, the focus is now on growth.
Several leading brokers say they want to hire more staff — a move that would have proven very costly several years ago when the markets were booming. The situation is very different now and recruiting broking talent is much easier.
Singapore seems set to maintain its prime position as the place to do Asian broking for a long time to come. Brokers here say the main challenge they face at the moment is hungry brokers from Europe coming over to see whether they can grab some of the business on offer.
Size not the be-all and end-all in London 在伦敦无论公司大小均有竞争力.
The field is just as ‘open’ for niche operations as old-established names in a tough sector where many have come and gone.
Shipbrokers searching for the secret of survival in a competitive world might well learn from London, home to some of the oldest firms in the business and now offering an interesting insight into what the broker of the future might look like.
Clarksons, EA Gibson, Galbraith’s, Howe Robinson and Simpson Spence & Young (SSY) have been around for a century or more, while by comparison relative newcomers Braemar Seascope, ICAP Shipping and ACM seem set to become equally established names in the business.
The longevity of London’s leading broking houses is even more remarkable given the cut-throat nature of the business, which has seen some big names of the past disappear, as Nigel Richardson, who heads 120-year-old Gibson, points out.
“Shipbrokers have always come and gone,” he said. “Remember Cambridge Tankers? No longer trading but 40 years ago they were one of the largest shipbrokers in London. Then there was Lambert Bros, Howard Houlder, Davies and Newman, GPG Shipbroking, Goddard Osborn, Phoenix, Blidberg Metcalf, Thatham Bromage, Plowrights, to mention just a few of the shipbroking companies that have declined.”
Size is not the most important factor to ensure survival. Richardson believes there is room for both the smaller, specialised so-called “boutique brokers”, as he describes them, alongside the giants. “Any size is ok,” he said. “As long as they are serving their small section of the market well.”
Indeed, he suggests it is wrong to assume London is the centre of the shipbroking world, rather it is made up of numerous centres like New York, Oslo, Dubai and Singapore with emerging hubs like Shanghai and Geneva. And although all the major London brokers have set up outposts around the globe, Richardson thinks it is not essential for smaller niche shops to develop outside London in order to do business successfully.
Gibson is now controlled by London Stock Exchange (LSE)-quoted energy-services provider Hunting Group, which has helped provide a sense of security for the broker during the shipping-market downturn, while ICAP Shipping is part of the listed ICAP group.
And it is London that has really been the only shipping city where brokers have been attracted to the stock market. Clarksons, the longest established on the LSE, followed by Braemar Seascope, which floated in 2002, and most recently, the smaller ACM, which went for London’s Alternative Investment Market (AIM).
The analysts’ view is that shipbroking does not suit public ownership. In theory, investors prefer to see profits paid in dividends to shareholders rather than in bonuses to brokers. And there is some scepticism over whether brokers will use the stock market to raise investment equity for acquisition and growth.
Brokers, of course, take issue with that view and ACM’s Johnny Plumbe pointed out during a recent earnings announcement that the bonus system has acted as an automatic and efficient way to reduce employee costs when the market is in recession.
And as for acquisitions, all three listed London companies have also used their shares to acquire different broking companies or to diversify.
The London-listed shops have also clearly attempted to demonstrate growth to investors. ACM has branched out of a tanker niche into dry bulk through acquisition. Clarksons and Braemar Seascope have also opted to diversify but in different ways.
Braemar Seascope has put an emphasis on marine technical services and most recently acquired the former Salvage Association. Managing director Dennis Petropoulos says the development of the technical division, Braemar Technical Services (BTS), has its roots in the broker’s original ownership of technical company Wavespec. Since then it has ventured into environmental areas through Braemar Howells and is seeking similar opportunities to grow. It now has technical, logistic and environmental divisions within eight companies. “The strategy has been to increase diversification to get away from the cyclical nature of the shipping business to a service that is more predictable,” Petropoulos said.
The plan at Braemar Seascope is to develop to the extent that technical and other services make up around 50% of the company’s overall profitability.
BTS is already the biggest employer in the Braemar group.
So far Petropoulos says the more labour-intensive technical business is less profitable per employee compared to shipbroking.
Clarksons has historically been a diverse company. It was even a shipowner in the past and is still involved in port services. More recently it has gone into the shipping-related financial-services sector to develop vessel-investment projects. The broker has also developed its research capability to provide bespoke research for clients and also as an information service to the shipping industry.
Shipping Intelligence Network (SIN), developed by Clarksons director Martin Stopford, has become regarded as the industry’s most comprehensive information source on the shipping markets.
Greeks take stock 介诏希腊国内之船务中介行
The owners’ broker tag is still the norm but bigger shops have opted for bases overseas. But the costs involved will likely limit such moves for now.
Just like the Greek shipowning fraternity, the country’s shipbroking community ranges from the large and outward-looking to the small and traditional.
A glance at the website of the Hellenic Shipbrokers Association (HSA) reveals 377 individual members but the number of substantial home-grown brokerages, whether sale-and-purchase (S&P), chartering, or both, probably stands at around two dozen.
Smaller offices or one-man operations have always tended in Greece to be owners’ brokers and HSA president John Pachoulis confirms this still tends to be the norm.
But just as shipping companies have matured, so have many of the brokers.
Unquestionably, the largest and most ambitious Greek shop is Optima Shipbrokers, which embraces S&P, wet and dry chartering, repairs and newbuilding contracting through three separate offices in Athens and several overseas.
In 2005, Optima established an office in Shanghai. Two years later it set up a Dubai operation, with Brazil following in around 2008 and the Singapore base opened for business in 2010.
“We are the only company that has locally established offices,” said managing director of the S&P side Dimitris Koukas.
Optima employs around 150 people locally and a further 50 abroad. Future plans include a research department and financial services, while still further ahead there are thoughts of offshore and a rekindling of activity in freight futures.
Time-wise, Optima just about tied with Intermodal Shipbroking with the establishment of a Shanghai office.
Intermodal, founded in 1984 by Captain Kyriakos Dermatis, last year merged with Greece’s oldest broking house, N Cotzias Shipping. Initially offering S&P, newbuilding contracting, demolition broking, research and competitive chartering, Intermodal later opted out of chartering and has placed some considerable weight on newbuilding contracting.
The third Greek house to have an international presence is Golden Destiny, which last year opened up a shop in Istanbul with two Turkish brokers who were repatriated from the Greek office.
Allied Shipbroking, another of the leading Greek brokers, has opted not to open up bases abroad, as has George Moundreas & Co. Nonetheless, Moundreas is well-known for its very active newbuilding-contracting department, for many years headed up by George Banos, who now enjoys the title of consultant.
Given current market conditions it may prove difficult for Greeks to make further inroads abroad due to the overheads involved.
As one player observes, in order to open an overseas office a broking house is either going to be burdened with the cost of expatriate salaries and privileges or recruiting top guns in the new location, both being expensive in today’s economic reality.
For the same reasons, the expansion of foreign broking operations in Greece may stagnate, despite the magnet of local owners. There are a number of foreign brokers in place but new additions may not be on the cards for the moment.
Clarksons (Hellas), founded in 2001, is the “dean” of the foreign brokers in Greece, with RS Platou having opened an office in 2009 and Simpson Spence & Young (SSY) following suit a year later and now fielding a five-strong S&P team.
Maersk Broker Hellas is another strong player, with both container chartering and S&P activities.
Howe Robinson, which opened up a base in Greece in 2005, later closed it down but is working through a locally based representative, as is Barry Rogliano Salles (BRS).
Arrow Shipbroking, which established its Athens office in mid-2010, is focussed purely on chartering, with a team of nine.
Not all Greek and foreign chartering and S&P brokers that are both active and expanding are mentioned here but it seems that, as in shipowning, the days of the one-man show are passing and to compete in an ever-more challenging environment brokers will also have to look to wider horizons.
Turning know-how into a commodity 把专业知识变为成品
Estimating the market price of vessels is part of a shipbroker’s skills but it is Seasure Shipping’s belief that in the Internet age this should be a service that can be done with the click of a mouse. In a prime example of how brokers can turn specialised market know-how into a saleable product, the broker, based in the well-heeled, leafy London suburb of Chiswick, last year set up VessselsValue.com, an instant online valuation service for ships. Marketing executive at VesselsValue Georgina Gavin says the product is already making inroads into the finance, shipowning and even shipbroking world. Its valuations were also recently used as the basis for an acquisition deal by Tufton Oceanic and it has already clocked up 100,000 valuations for subscribers.The website has grown beyond a simple valuation with the development of a so-called ebroker service offering a more comprehensive information service, including instant fleet valuations, sales history and demolition valuations.In addition to the valuations, simplicity and functionality are a key attraction of the service. As chief executive Richard Rivlin said: “We wanted to make it idiot-proof and able to satisfy the demand for instant up-to-date information and for the user to analyse what is happening day to day.” Gavin says a daily e-mail valuation-update service has proven popular with bankers who want to keep a close eye on vessels on the verge of breaking covenants. While that may prove popular with bankers, it is hardly likely to endear the service to shipowners, who may be clients of Seasure.It is perhaps no surprise in a sliding market that one complaint is that VesselsValue’s values are on the low side. But do client pressures compromise the service? Rivlin thinks not.“Some people might not like our valuations but the whole idea is to be objective,” he insisted.
贸易凤周刊 04月09日
Ship boosts China - Iran links 中伊因船提高联系
An Iranian naval intervention that freed a Chinese tweendecker and its crew from Somali pirates appears to have given a boost to Sino – Iranian relations. Chinese foreign minister Yang Jiechi has expressed gratitude for the rescue and according to the Chinese Xinhua news agency told his Iranian counterpart Ali-Akbar Salehi that China wants to work with Iran to further develop their friendly and co-operative relationship.The rescue is being celebrated in both Beijing and Tehran with the 28 crew of the Xiang Hua Men (信华门)also set for a $10,000 a man bonus for bravery in the face of the pirate attack.
The crew of the Xiang Hua Men celebrate their rescue as they arrive at Bandar Abbas.
The 23,000-dwt Xiang Hua Men (built 1987) part of the Nanjing Ocean Shipping Co (NASCO) fleet was seized on Friday in the Gulf of Oman with China sending a diplomatic message to Tehran asking if the Iranian navy could intervene.
贸易凤周刊 04月01-16日
1. -分析家估计今年将有 2千万吨(dwt) 之老旧 bulkers被拆.
2. -三光公司准备卖掉30条船和缩紧经营方式希望 2年后可以付还债务.
3. -全球货箱船务公司2011年共亏损 56亿美元比起2010年之 121亿美元盈利真有天渊之别.
4. -意大利Deiulemar船务公司股东因公司即将破产所借给公司之 10亿美元恐血本无归而游行示威.
5. -希腊 Danaos公司因无货源而退休 4500-teu级 之船队.
劳氏船务日报4月01-16日
1. -外国船东将发觉在中国之业务较前难进展.
2. -南京油轮公司2011年亏损 1.196亿美元, 恐被上海证券所除牌.
3. -15年以上之海岬型船和小型2-3000箱位船陆续被拆.
二：造船 (Shipbuilding)
1. -韩国大宇造船厂预测海上采油船类订单将上升 34%.
2. -丹麦之 Tankers Inc向广州造船厂订造 3条 5万吨之成品油轮,每条 3400万美元,2014年交船.
3. -世界上最贵的 13000-teu新船 “Al Ula”(2012) 13,500-teu(造价每条1.67亿美元) 己交给 UASC联合非洲船务公司. 目前该型新船每条造价已跌 25%.
三：海难 (Casualty)
1. -Maersk Line之 “Anna Maersk” (2003) 8272-teu,上月28日于日本神户举行救生艇操练时一名菲律宾海员意外死亡.
四：买卖/租贷 (S/P & Chartering)
1. S & P
-“Vogesailor” (1996) 164188-dwt, Bulker usd 11.60M, Greek
-“Amalia” (2000) 75100-dwt, Bulker usd 16.40M, Greek
-“Hellenic Sky” (1994) 68591-dwt, Bulker usd 10.10M, Korean
-“Dina G.” (1984) 37725-dwt, Bulker usd 3.50M, Chinese
-“Ocean Belle” (1999) 32130-dwt, Bulker usd 10.00M, Turkey
-“SC Chelsea” (2000) 26707-dwt, Tanker usd 12.50M, European
2. DEMO
-“BC Alina” (1986) 179802-dwt usd 490/ldt, Bangladesh
-“MT Seacrest” (1991) 154970-dwt usd 475/ldt, Pakistan
-“MT Akaria” (1991) 107223-dwt usd 496/ldt, India
-“MT Northern Bell” (1990) 83651-dwt usd 485/ldt, India
-“BC Raina” (1984) 68405-dwt usd 445/ldt, China
-“STX Busan” (1985) 12573-dwt usd 420/ldt, China
3. 本星期远东 2002年造二手船平均价值:
种类 油轮 干散货轮 集装箱轮 (teu)
船型 VLCC Suezmax Aframax Cape Pmax Supramax Handy ULCV Pmax Handy Fmax
吨位(万) 31 16 11 18 7..5 5 3 16000 4000 1400 750
价值(万美元) 3780 2740 1870 2650 1760 1710 1390 --- 2710 1210 870
4. Daily Summary of Baltic Exchange Dry Indices 2012.04.16
Baltic Exchange Dry Index BDI 975 (+ 3)
Baltic Exchange Capesize Index BCI 1547 (- 25)
Baltic Exchange Panamax Index BPI 1189 (+ 31)
Baltic Exchange Supramax Index BSI 944 (+ 8)
Baltic Exchange Handysize Index BHSI 543 (+ 3)
5. TIMECHARTER
-“Star Polaris” (2011) 180000 dwt dely retro Cape Passero 14 Apr trip via Baltimore redel S.Korea $25000 daily – SK Shipping
-“Emma Schulte” (2012) 115000 dwt dely Bayuquan 1/5 Apr trip via Port Hedland redel China,int Chrome ore, $5500 daily – Aquavita
-“Hebei Quihuangdao” (2011) 93720 dwt dely Taichung 10/15 Apr trip via Indonesia redel Taiwan $8250 daily – cnr
-“Jin Star” (2010) 79386 dwt dely Richards Bay 20/25 Apr trip redel Malaysia $13000 daily + 300000bb – Oldendorff
-“Coal Age” (1997) 73824 dwt dely EC S.Am 3/8 May trip redel S’pore-Jpn range $16500 daily+ 650000bb – Glencore
-“King Felipe” (2011) 57000 dwt dely S’pore Spot trip via Indonesia redel China, int. coal,$11000 daily – cnr
-“Four Mpgami” (2009) 55582 dwt dely Shanghai 12 Apr trip via Indonesia redel China, int.Bauxite, $9000 daily – Winning
6. PERIOD
-“Global Star” (2009) 83222-dwt 4-6 months usd 9100/daily GMI
-“Bianco Builker” (2001) 52193-dwt 3-5 months usd 10700/daily Cargill
-“Monte Pelmo” (2000) 72917-dwt 4-6 months usd 9000/daily Norden
-“Krania” (2010) 57696-dwt 5-7 months usd 11000/daily HMM
-“Great Dream” (2011) 35000-dwt 4-6 months usd 9500/daily cnr
-“Great Leader” (2004) 33745-dwt 11-13 months usd 9500/daily Pacbasin
7. ORE
-Tbn 150000/10%, Itaguai/China 21/30 Apr usd 70.35 fio, sc/30000sc -- Usiminas
-Tbn 160000/10%, Port Hedland/青島 21/24 Apr usd 8.00 fio, sc/30000sc -- FMG
-“Ocean Clarion” (2009) 160000/10%, W.Australia/Japan 20/30 Apr usd 7.95 fio, sc/55000shinc -- JFE
五：2012/04/16 船用燃油价格(每吨/usd)
来源: Bunkerworld
IFO 380 __IFO 180 MDO MGO
新加坡 710 718 975 980
鹿特丹 687 718 ----- 998
休士顿 708 736 ----- 1030
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备注: tbn = to be named ldt = light d/weight ton
usd = u.s.dollar mtpa = million ton per annum
cbm =cubic meter tpa =million metric ton per annu
