VFB #145 - 淡水河谷与中国之争 2012.05.16

2012-05-17 19:37  浏览次数 26

淡水河谷与中国之争   

2012.05.16 

一:本期头条

贸易凤周刊  0511日社论 最近淡水河谷公司(Vale)与中国船东公会纠纷之加剧恐對礦砂石咻斠祹砦;�.事情起因是 Vale 1040万吨 VLOC 因安全问题披拒进入中国港口, Vale 被迫于马来西亚和菲律宾兴建转运站因此提高成本, 据说 Vale 为报复起见开始不租用中远 Capesize 装运矿砂石. 业界认为此仍世界二大集团之纠纷最终结局如何尚难得知.....( 原文如下)

Dangers as the Vale-China row escalates

Harsh lessons need to be learned as China’s anger escalated this week over the fleet of 400,000-dwt “Valemax” vessels being built and now operated by the Brazilian miner.

In an intriguing twist to an already extended saga, which could be a parable for our times, Cosco has rounded on Vale for allegedly boycotting its dry-bulk fleet. The blacklisting is in apparent retaliation for what Brazil believes is Cosco’s – and China’s – discrimination against its new fleet of super-bulkers.

It pits one of the world’s biggest commodities producers against a leading shipowner and operator, which just happens to be a state-owned arm of the world’s largest importer and second-biggest economy. Put so bluntly, it is hard to overstate its potential significance.

Cosco president Ma Zehua has threatened to complain to China’s ministry of commerce over what he believes is Vale’s retaliation for government lobbying he says has not happened.

Vale has yet to confirm the boycott but has apparently shunned chartering Cosco ships for around two months, even at times taking higher-priced alternatives.

Vale has already seen some of the 10 Valemax vessels delivered refused entry to Chinese ports on thinly argued “safety” grounds, although some independent experts acknowledge the risks of such large ships in China’s shallow coastal waters.

Vale has set up a transhipment point in the Philippines in an expensive solution that clearly undermines the potential savings of building and operating such giants in the first place.

In response, Cosco’s Ma continues to peddle the fear of “a growing number of [future] safety problems” without any hint of the specific issues, let alone any solutions — which is rather ironic as 20 of the current proposed fleet of 35 Valemaxes are being built at Chinese yards.

Attitudes on both sides appear by turns authoritarian, naive and now increasingly embittered. It is not a pleasant picture with worrying implications for all.

The central message the outside world needs to understand is that commerce and state remain firmly intertwined in modern China, despite apparent modernisation. Until those links are fully broken, it is wise to presume that the two remain cyphers for the other.

Further, no one should underestimate China’s desire to take complete control of its supply chain. If that means breaking the power and influence of any supplier — either of commodities or ships — then that’s what it will do.

It is another chapter in the story of China remodelling the world to its own needs and expectations. China believes the choice is clear: you are either with it or against it.

贸易凤周刊  0511        

China cargo volumes weaken  中国原料进口数量减缓.

China’s demand for major commodities such as iron ore and crude continued to weaken last month, latest official figures show.

China's iron ore imports fell to a six-month low

April's iron ore imports fell to their lowest monthly level since October 2011, according to preliminary customs data.

However, the figure was still 9% higher than the year-ago level and coincided with a 6-month high for iron ore prices.

Shipbroker SSY said this would seem to suggest that the lower imports owed much to restrictions on global supplies.

April volumes were an 8% decrease on March, accelerating a trend begun two months back, when imports fell 3% from February.

China’s steel demand has been heavily hit by policy curbs on the construction sector, which accounts for half of steel demand in the country.

However, total imports in January to April of this year were 244.9mt, an increase of 6% on the same period in 2011.

On the crude side China imported 5.44mb/d during April, a 129,000 b/d decline from March, after refiners reduced purchases ahead of peak spring maintenance.

“April’s imports were up 176,000 b/d compared with the same month in 2011, representing the slowest monthly rate of year-on-year growth since last September,” SSY said.

Agricultural imports were slightly more resilient than metals. China’s April soybean imports rose 26% from a year earlier and 1% from March.

China’s export and import growth slowed in April raising fears about a sharp slowdown in its economy and triggering calls for monetary policy easing.

Exports rose by 4.9% from a year earlier, down from the 8.9% annual growth seen in March, a sign that global demand may be slowing.

Meanwhile, imports rose just 0.3% on the year, down from 5.3% in March, indicating a fall in domestic demand.

Exports to the EU, China’s second largest trading partner, were down 2.4% to $27.6bn. However, those to its number one customer, the US, rose 10% to $28.1bn.

“It is clear that the situation in Europe is dragging on China’s export performance, and in turn on its overall growth,” said one analyst.

In the Euro zone, the region’s debt crisis fears have re-emerged after voters in France and Greece backed politicians who oppose state

spending cuts.

In the US, jobs growth, which is seen as key to a recovery in the world’s biggest economy, slowed in April.

China lays blame on liquefaction     在调查三艘装运镍矿砂船沉没之后中国当局归咎原因是货物液化所致.

China is calling for the early implementation of good-practice guidelines on bulk cargoes.

A Chinese accident investigation has concluded that cargo liquefaction caused the loss of three bulkers and 45 Chinese seafarers’ lives in late 2010.

The findings of the probe have not been publicly released but have been revealed in papers submitted to the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) by China ahead of the Maritime Safety Committee (MSC) meeting next week.

It marks the first time recent losses linked to nickel ore have officially been attributed to cargo liquefaction.

China says its own probe into the losses of the 45,000-dwt Jian Fu Star (built 1981), 56,000-dwt Nasco Diamond (built 2009) and 50,000-dwt Hong Wei (built 2001) concluded that the cause was liquefaction of the cargoes of nickel ore loaded in the Philippines.

Chinese accident investigators drew their conclusion from the testimony of the surviving crew. Alarmingly, the cargo documentation examined by investigators in each case had actually declared that the moisture level was within permissible limits.

China concluded: “According to the evidence available, the direct cause of these accidents was the loss of stability as the result of cargo liquefaction and shift in bad weather. However, the cargo documentation provided to the masters indicated that the moisture content of the cargo samples was lower than the Transportable Moisture Limit.”

There has been no official accident report released as China did not have the obligation to carry out the probe. The vessels were controlled by Chinese interests and were trading to China with full Chinese crew but none of them were registered in China and the losses occurred outside Chinese waters.

The move to improve measures covering ships carrying cargoes prone to liquefy was heightened by the 2011 loss of the 56,000-dwt Vinalines Queen (built 2005) with the loss of 22 lives.

China is now calling on the IMO for good-practice measures, set to be enforced in the International Maritime Solid Bulk Cargoes (IMSBC) code from January 2015, to be offered to the industry as guidelines from this year.

The move is also being backed separately by an industry group made up of dry-bulk owners’ association Intercargo, the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS), Bimco, the protection-and-indemnity (P&I) clubs and the International Union of Marine Insurance (IUMI), who are urging the early application of the measures.

China said: “Considering the importance of the amendments, China proposes that the MSC consider the issuance of a circular to encourage the early implementation on a voluntary basis and the greatest extent possible.”

These measures include the designation of a national competent authority for the safe carriage of grain and solid bulk cargoes, ensuring there is an independent competent authority to measure moisture content of cargoes (and) improvement in stock-pile management to protect cargoes from rain.

贸易凤周刊  0501-15  

                   1. -中国航运界新秀山东船务公司将于今年跃为拥有200dwt船队之大公司.

         2. -香港上市之 Titan化油公司受母公司大新华之影响被迫出售三艘油轮应急.

                   3. -2012年拆船吨数将破有史以来之记录.

                   4. -2012年笫一季干散船新船完工交船数量达 1480 dwt.

                   5. -意大利 Deiulemar船务公司因负债过巨回天乏术. 该公司创办人因此去世.

                   6. -美国正考虑大量出口煤炭前往亚洲, 但因西海岸缺乏煤炭码头和运费较高, 恐难与印尼竞争.

劳氏船务日报0501-15

                   1. -中国 14500公里海岸线之航运带动国内造船业.

                   2. -韩国 STX Pan Ocean今年笫一季亏损 1.04亿美元.

                  3. -韩国现代船务公司(HMM)今年笫一季盈利下跌 63%.

                  4. -新加坡 NOL公司今年笫一季亏损 2.54亿美元.

                  5.  -中国船东协会通知淡水河谷公司如要进入中国港口必需把40万吨之 VLOC型船减到35万吨.

                  6. -又有两家西方船公司扣留日本三光之船只.

二:造船 (Shipbuilding)

                   1. -神华中海向江南造船厂订造6 76,000-dwt新船, 造价每条 2800万美金, 交船期为 2013-2014.

                   2. -John Fredriksen向大连造船厂订造4 Aframax型油轮, 造价每条 4400万美金, 交船期为 2013-2014.

四:港口 (Terminals)

                   1. -新加坡港今年4月份运作量为 260万箱,同比上升5.7%.一到四月为1040万箱同比上升0.7%.

                   2. -香港码头今年一到四月运作量为 770万箱,同比上升0.7%.

五:海难 (Casualty)

                   1. -固惠特旗货轮 “Hussa  Alghanim” (1984) 39,000-dwt之印度籍船长上月21日因酒醉被深圳码头人员锁在船上.

                   2. -马绍尔岛旗 VLCC “Pacific Glory” (2001) 300,000-teu  57日于马来西亚海面搁浅, 15日被拖船拖出, 因该船为双层船壳型故无排油现象.

                   3. - “MSC Idil” (1992) 4,469-teu 本月11日于波多黎谷北面因进行烧焊工作而导致爆炸.                                     4. - 挪威 Jebsen 公司之水泥船 “Malta Cement” (1992) 4,000-dwt 于本月13日于瑞典海岸搁浅.

六:买卖/租贷         (S/P & Chartering)

1. S & P  

-“Iron Yandi”              (1996)   170000-dwt, Bulker   usd   13.60M, Greek

-“Tai Yoh 3”                (1997)     95000-dwt, Bulker usd     9.00M, Unknown

-“Newlead Gujarat”  (2011)     79263-dwt, Bulker usd   22.40M, Greek

-“Voge Prestige”       (1996)     75100-dwt, Bulker usd     8.75M, Unknown

-“Chios Joy”               (1989)     68364-dwt, Bulker usd     6.50M, Greek

-“Mastro Giorgis II”   (1995)     52370-dwt, Bulker usd     7.20M, India

-“Atlantic King”           (1998)     27786-dwt, Bulker usd     8.50M, Unknown

-“Voge Prestige”        (1996)     75100-dwt, Bulker usd     8.75M, Unknown

-“Chios Joy”                (1989)     68364-dwt, Bulker usd     6.50M, Greek

-“Mastro Giorgis II”    (1995)     52370-dwt, Bulker usd     7.20M, India

-“Atlantic King”            (1998)     27786-dwt, Bulker usd     8.50M, Unknown

-“Centennial Jewel”   (1997)   300955-dwt, Tanker  usd   32.50M, Unknown

-“Naviga”                      (1998)   150841-dwt, Tanker  usd   15.30M, Greek

-“Torm Ugland”           (2007)     73708-dwt, Tanker         usd   21.00M, Indonesian

-“Maersk Cameron”    (1995)     46800-dwt, Tanker         usd   10.00M, European

2. DEMO                     

                               -“Sydney”                            (1987)  188125-dwt                    usd    502/ldt, Banglasdesh

-“Amber Star”                    (1986)  181884-dwt                   usd    490/ldt, Banglasdesh

-“Alaskan Sea”                  (1992)    98929-dwt                    usd    500/ldt, Pakistan  

-“Adriatic Sea”                    (1983)    98660-dwt                   usd    500/ldt, Pakistan    

-“Swift Fortune”                  (1987)    71240-dwt                    usd    417/ldt, China

                               -“Oriental Sky”                     (1980)     38323-dwt                   usd    482/ldt, Banglasdesh

                               -“Anjasmoro”                       (1996)    32696-dwt                   usd    490/ldt, Banglasdesh

-“Reefer Centaurus”         (1972)    12182-dwt                   usd    412/ldt, China

3. 本星期远东 2002年造二手船平均价值:

种类                              油轮                                              干散货轮                                       集装箱轮         (teu)

船型                    VLCC         Suezmax      Aframax    Cape    Pmax    Supramax     Handy     ULCV     Pmax     Handy     Fmax

吨位()                 31                16             11             18         7..5            5              3           16000      4000       1400        750

价值(万美元)         3790             2820          1770          2410     1820        1610           1330          ---         2250       1160        960

4. Daily Summary of Baltic Exchange Dry Indices 2012.05.16

Baltic Exchange Dry              Index     BDI      1137  (+        7)
Baltic Exchange Capesize    Index     BCI     1632  (+       19)
Baltic Exchange Panamax    Index     BPI     1266  (-        17)
Baltic Exchange Supramax  Index      BSI     1106  (+         1)
Baltic Exchange Handysize  Index     BHSI     630  (+         0)

5. TIMECHARTER

-“Shagangfirst Power”  (2011)       179527 dwt dely Kashima spot trip via Roberts Bank redel China $7500 daily – Cargill

-“Chiara”                    (2011)       115000 dwt dely aps Recalada 20-25 May trip redel Med. $10000 daily + 400000bb–Bunge

-“Bulk Indonesia”         (2011)         95740 dwt dely Rizhao spot trip via Indonesia redel Taiwan $11000 daily – Ark Shipping

-“Annou G.O.”             (2011)         87000 dwt dely Goa spot trip redel China $23500 daily – cnr

-“Mega Star”                (2010)         79000 dwt dely Mumbai prompt trip via Bandas Abbas redel China $18000 daily – Sea Freight

-“Sumihou”                  (2000)  74882 dwt dely Beihai 11/13  May  trip via W,Australia redel China, int. grain, $12500 daily – Oldendorff

-“Huang Shan Hai”       (1998)         73596 dwt dely Guangzhou 27/30 Apr trip via Indonesia  redel China $10500 daily – Oldendorff

-“Spar Hydra”              (2011)         57970 dwt dely Hong Kong spot trip redel US WC $6000 daily – HMM

6. PERIOD

-“Lolcos Unity”        (2006)   74476-dwt    11-13   months   usd  11800/daily     Bunge

-“Tian Tong Feng”    (2001)   74275-dwt    4-6   months       usd  17000/daily     cnr

-“Deep Seas”          (1999)   72891-dwt    4-6   months       usd  11500/daily     BHP Billiton

7. ORE

-“Cape Claudine”   (2010) 170000/10%, Port Hedland/青島    18/25 /May        usd      7.50   fio,    sc/30000sc  --  BHP Billiton

-Tbn                              160000/10%, Saldanha Bay/青島   25 May-6 Jun   usd     14.00   fio.     sc/30000sc  --  Ore & Metals

-Tbn                              160000/10%, W.Australia/青島       24 May-2 Jun   usd       7.50   fio,    sc/30000sc  --  Prime East

8. COAL

-“Alpha Cosmos”     (2001) 150000/10%, Richards Bay/Liuheng     27 May-1 June    usd  13.35   fio,    sc/25000shinc --  Phoenix

2012/05/16 船用燃油价格(每吨/usd)

来源: Bunkerworld

                                IFO 380           __IFO 180              MDO           MGO   

新加坡                       660                     670                   928              935

鹿特丹                       630                     655                    -----             927

            休士顿                        645                     680                    -----             953

*****************************************************************************************************         

备注:        tbn         = to be named                       ldt          = light d/weight ton

usd        = u.s.dollar                           mtpa        = million ton per annum              

cbm       =cubic meter                           tpa        =million metric ton per annu

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