VFB #160 - 贺新年 2013.01.01

2013-01-03 18:58  浏览次数 30





Hopes for a New Year                         新年己到来它充满着希望和机遇..

Monday, 31 December 2012 | 00:00

The New Year is upon us, in what tends to be a season full of hope and an opportunity to look ahead, rather than to gloomily consider the disappointments of the twelvemonth now relegated to history. For the shipping industry, the future is tinged with a certain apprehension, which is quite understandable bearing in mind the supply and demand situation, and the fact that in a sector dependent upon derived demand, you cannot easily encourage people to use ships!
But maybe the fact that shipping is so economical to use ought itself to aid in the recovery of world trade. After all, nobody is inhibited in his or her trade by the cost of shipping their stuff – even to the furthest corners of the world. Shipping does not get enough credit in this respect as the vehicle that facilitates everyone’s imports and exports. There seems some expectation of global growth in the upcoming year, which will surely help, although the pace of maritime recovery will doubtless be slowed by the increase in the world fleet and that pre-2008 optimism that left a long tail behind it.
So while the New Year carries with it all manner of challenges, it is worth looking back to other stormy periods when there were many worrying similarities. And on these occasions, the industry rose to meet the oncoming waves and emerged into calmer waters. Economic cycles are never identical, but the fact that they come around ought to carry with them a germ of optimism. There will be opportunities emerging from even the most unprepossessing circumstances.
It is also worth reflecting that when times get tough, the tough get going, and there is invariably an upsurge in innovative thinking that is not always present in a period when the economic sun is shining. There is no doubt at all that technical innovation is getting into top gear as the engineers and designers, the brightest commercial brains and the people of ideas all combine to ensure the survival of their various companies, whether it is shipyards, engine and equipment manufacturers, shipping companies or those who employ ships. We have seen explosive periods of innovation in the past, and we can be sure that we are already sighting a renaissance of innovation over the horizon.
The harder the challenges, the more important this innovation will be. There is a multi-faceted challenge across the whole economic spectrum of ship operation, in the plethora of new regulations, the environmental pressures, the energy situation and, not least, the uncertainties of what fuel ought to be in the bunker tanks of the future. There are some enormous decisions to be made as ship operators confront these problems which will face them in the coming year. It is why the industry needs the brightest brains and the entrepreneurial skills that will enable it to prosper in the very changed circumstances of the future. In the end, despite all the technology and hardware, it will come down to people. Let us wish everyone a very happy and prosperous New Year.
Source: BIMCO

Feeding the Dragon          2012虽然是经济增长最弱的一年但中国物品进口仍然是最强的..

Monday, 31 December 2012 | 11:00

Despite the economy growing at its weakest pace for 13 years, 2012 will go down as one of the strongest ever for China’s commodity imports according to Barclays. While 2011 saw a mixed picture with imports of key commodities like copper and soybeans falling and coal import growth slowing sharply, in contrast, with just one month of data to go, China is on track to register strong growth right across the commodities sector this year.
"Some of the strongest import growth has been in agriculture. Imports of key commodities like corn, cotton and soybeans are up 318%, 79% and 11% y/y, respectively. Most of the strength in agricultural commodities imports this year reflects China’s structural inability to match its demand growth," say Barlclays. "We expect further growth in soybean imports next year, though corn buying is likely to be very price sensitive and import growth is likely to be much below this year’s pace. Cotton imports have contributed to a big build in domestic stocks and are likely to be much weaker in 2013."
"Imports of all primary metals except nickel also expanded fast this year, whilst iron ore import growth reached 8% y/y. However, much more of this growth has contributed to increases in domestic stocks, as much of the trade has been driven by financing activities and arbitrage plays rather than underlying demand. Raw materials imports for most base metals have also been strong, helping to boost local production and add to local surpluses. Significantly, imports of most base metals fell sharply in November and we think that base metals imports are likely to stay weak early in 2013, with the possible exception of zinc where financing demand is high.
"In energy markets crude oil import growth so far this year is running a little ahead of 2011 (7% vs. 6% y/y) and we expect growth in early 2013 to remain steady at close to these levels, supported by healthy demand growth plus the start-up of new oil refining capacity. Coal imports have been especially strong in the year-to-date (+40% y/y), mainly reflecting transport constraints for domestic coal, which makes imports more competitive for eastern seaboard generators and which we think will continue to be the case early next year.
"Bucking the trends in other commodities, precious metals imports this year have been weak with palladium imports held back by a sluggish start to the year for the auto sector and some destocking, plus a sharp decline in silver imports. Whilst we are not hugely positive on China’s silver import needs for next year we do expect palladium to recover strongly."
Source: Commodities Now

合并之风盛行                     消息传来 DNV GL 两家船级社同意合并成为一个超级船级社. (1).

New classification superpower is born

The merged classification giant, in which DNV will have a majority stake, will trigger concerns among competitors, writes Adam Corbett in London.

Det Norske Veritas (DNV) of Norway’s merger with Germanischer Lloyd (GL) will create a new classification superpower that is set to dominate the marine-certification business.

The two have been linked as potential merger candidates ever since DNV stepped into the race to capture GL when the Hamburg-based class society was being pursued by France’s Bureau Veritas.

This week they ended fresh speculation with an announcement that DNV will hold a 63.5% majority stake in the merged DNV GL group, which will be headquartered in Hovik, Norway.

The two societies appear to be a good fit. DNV is the larger but they have synergies and similar ambitions that suggest both would benefit from a merger.

The new business will have a combined annual revenue of $3bn, while merging offices and staff should boost earnings. It will be by far the largest marine classification society with a combined fleet of 260 million gross tons (gt), well ahead of closest rival ClassNK with 210 million gt.

DNV, which operates as an independent foundation with no shareholders, employs 8,453 people in 300 offices in 100 different countries. Last year its revenue was NOK 10.2bn ($1.8bn) and the DNV-classed fleet amounted to 160 million gt. DNV ranks second on the Paris Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) port-state-control’s list of best-performing recognised organisations (ROs), while GL comes fourth.

GL is owned by private investor Gunter Herz Holding, which retains the remaining 36.5% following the merger. It employs 6,900 people in 200 offices dotted around 80 countries. It had a turnover of EUR 767m ($1bn) last year and the GL-classed fleet amounted to 100 million gt.

Both are progressive companies and have been on the acquisition trail recently.

DNV made its biggest acquisition so far by taking a 75% stake in energy and sustainability-services company KEMA.

GL also moved in on Noble Denton, an offshore services company, and renewable-energy company Garrard Hassan.

Both DNV and GL have similar aims to expand and diversify along the energy chain and develop synergies with their existing expertise.

For GL a key attraction would be DNV’s prominence in the offshore market, while the Norwegian class society has its eye on GL’s domination of the German shipowning sector, in particular the containership-certification business, which makes up around 45% of its fleet.

Both have been active in attempting to encourage fuel-efficient technology and designs, as well as providing consultancy and advisory work on fuel efficiency to shipowners.

Yet while the long-term outlook for the container business might be good, and the fleet expanding, the current downturn and collapse of the German KG (limited partnership) market has hit GL hard and it was seeking to shed around 90 jobs through voluntary redundancies. It was GL that made the approach to DNV suggesting it was starting to feel the need to act (see story, page 2).

Should a merger go ahead it will be a concern for the new company’s major competitors, American Bureau of Shipping (ABS) and Lloyd’s Register, which rank third and fourth in the marine business,which will be aware of the emergence of a new certification, consultancy and risk-assessment powerhouse in the offshore and renewable-energy sectors.

19 December 2012, 06:57 GMT

Hapag-Lloyd, Hamburg Sud in Merger Talks                         于此同时德国二家船务公司 也即将合并.

Hapag-Lloyd and Hamburg Sud are in preliminary negotiations over a merger that would create the world’s fourth-largest ocean carrier and likely trigger a fresh round of consolidation in the fragmented container shipping industry.

The German carriers today said they “are investigating if, and under what conditions, a merger of both companies would be of interest.”

A merged carrier would generate revenue of $13 billion a year and operate a fleet of 242 owned and chartered container ships with a further 33 on order.

It would rank fourth, behind Maersk Line, Mediterranean Shipping Co. and France’s CMA CGM, with total capacity of 1.05 million 20-foot-equivalent units and a 6.3 percent world market share, according industry analyst Alphaliner.

The two Hamburg-based carriers have been the subject of periodic merger speculation since negotiations broke down in 1997 because of differences over financial terms and control of a combined line.

There would be little overlap in a merged carrier, as Hapag-Lloyd is a major player on the key east-west routes linking Asia, Europe and North America, while Hamburg Sud focuses on the north-south trades and has a strong presence in the fast-growing Latin American market.

As a subsidiary of the family-owned Oetker insurance-to-pizza conglomerate, Hamburg-Sud would be able to quickly make decisions about joining forces with Hapag-Lloyd.

Agreeing on terms would be more complicated for Hapag-Lloyd, which has to satisfy several powerful investors, including the city of Hamburg, which has a 37 percent stake; Klaus-Michael Kuehne, the billionaire owner of global freight forwarder Kuehne + Nagel, who owns just over 28 percent of the carrier; and TUI, Europe’s largest tour operator, which holds a 22 percent stake.

Klaus Michael Kuehne told German business paper Handelsblatt in September that he favored an “ideal” merger with Hamburg Sud so the enlarged carrier could compete with industry leaders Maersk Line and Mediterranean Shipping Co.


       1. -中远集团投资海上油田业务.

                     2. -政府禁止5000吨以下船只川行中港沃航线.

:造船 (Shipbuilding)

              1. -中船集团利用造船厂空档时间建造自己船队.

                  2. -国内造船厂正在进行第一艘 FPSO (Floating Production, Stowage & Offloading) 海上提练储存船.

                   3. -马士基公司旗下10条货箱船正在大连造船厂进行切掉船首改装工程. (2).


三:港口 (Terminal)

1. -大连港正在打造成为国际航运和物流中心.

2. -美国东西二岸码头工人罢工经己暂时结束.

:本星期 (2012.12.21) 远东 2002年造二手船平均价值:

种类                                  油轮                                干散货轮/万吨                               集装箱轮      (teu)_

船型               VLCC         Suezmax      Aframax    Cape      Pmax    Supramax     Handy          Pmax         Handy         Fmax_

吨位()             31                16               11            18         7.5              5             3                4000           1400            750

升降(百分比)     -0.3%           -0.4%           +4.1%      -0.5%    - 0.8%       -0.0%        -0.9%           -0.5%           -0.0%          -0.0%

五:Daily Summary of Baltic Exchange Dry Indices 2012.12.28

Baltic Exchange Dry              Index    BD         669  (-      1)

Baltic Exchange Capesize    Index    BPI       1235  (+     7)
Baltic Exchange Panamax    Index    BPI         699  (-    11)
Baltic Exchange Supramax   Index    BSI         728  (-     4)
Baltic Exchange Handysize  Index    BHSI       447  (+    1)

2012/12/28 船用燃油价格(每吨/usd)

来源: Bunkerworld

                                IFO 380           __IFO 180            MDO           MGO   

新加坡                       600                     613                   920              922

鹿特丹                       585                     605                   -----              920

            休士顿                        615                     645                   -----              1015


备注:        tbn         = to be named                       ldt          = light d/weight ton

usd        = u.s.dollar                           mtpa        = million ton per annum              

cbm       =cubic meter                           tpa        =million metric ton per annu

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