世界商船船队过多
2013.05.01
一：本期头条
Too Many Ships in the World Merchant Fleet
Monday, 08 April 2013 | 00:00
世界的商船船队从2005年的 50,000艘急速上升到2012年年底的 86,300艘. 这给航运业带来喜忧参半的问题. 究竞是什么原因会有这样的现象出现专家并不认为是有规律的提升……..
For ship spotters and maritime historians, it was an event of great significance. Back in 2005 the world fleet of cargo-carrying ships reached the symbolic 50,000 number. Today there are many more, and their capacity has risen enormously. For shipowners and market analysts, this enlargement is also significant, but has worrying overtones: expansion in many categories has greatly exceeded the growth of seaborne trade and demand for these vessels. The result has been varying degrees of depressed shipping markets over much of the past few years.
The world merchant ship fleet is very large, probably larger than most people would guess. But just how many vessels are there? What is their cargo carrying capacity? How did this fleet develop in recent years and why? And what is the outlook for the future? The answers to these questions are of interest not only to those participating in, or merely observing, this remarkable industry; they are scrutinised intensely within academic maritime studies at GMI.
Fleet statistics weave a fascinating pattern. By mid-2011 the world’s entire fleet of all types of commercial ships over one hundred tons had increased its gross tonnage to 1 billion. At the end of last year the total reached 1.09 billion GT, numbering 86,300 ships. This gigantic armada includes not only the vast fleets of bulk carriers, tankers and container ships, but also a wide range of other types. General cargo vessels, multi-purpose ships, car carriers, roll on-roll off vessels, gas carriers, reefer tonnage, cruise ships, offshore service vessels and others (such as tugs and dredgers) are represented. Many perform services which do not involve carrying cargo, of course.
Why is all this a problem? Unfortunately (for shipowners and their bankers), expansion of transportation capacity in the main fleet sectors has outpaced the growth of global seaborne trade and demand for shipping services. The market’s two sides are often out of balance, to some extent, but in the present cycle the imbalance (oversupply) is particularly large and persistent and is having a brutal impact on freight earnings and profitability.
Where do we go from here? Forecasters in this notoriously hard-to-predict industry are frequently wrong-footed by unanticipated events. If the world economy soon takes off again and stays there, boosting trade, surplus shipping capacity could be quickly eliminated, but few expect that to happen. Although China’s economic growth appears to be reviving, the USA is picking up, and Japan could start regaining momentum, Europe’s economy is still in the doldrums and probably will remain there for a while. Political events could disrupt trading patterns and potentially add to demand for ships, but these circumstances are essentially unpredictable. There are other factors, of course, but no indications at present of a quick solution to the fleet over-capacity problem. The scale of the problem, although diminishing, is still so large that adjustment towards a better balance may yet take some time to complete.
Source: Greenwich Maritime Institute,
The End of the U.S. Merchant Marine?
Monday, 22 April 2013 | 00:00
美国商船船队面临结束?
-因美国国会去年减低对美国旗船只的补助,很有可能在十年之内美国旗的船舶将因此无法经营而终止. 美国船东和海员工会再三要求政府承认海运对一个国家的重要性. 在2012年之前美国为保障国家海运而限令任何援助第三国家的粮食之中必需有75% 是由美国国旗的船舶承运, 但去年政府将这个优惠减低到50%, 同时以现金代替粮食,因此美国船东将失去大量的货运和政府的赞助而发生危机…..
The U.S. Merchant Marine fleet will be dead in ten years. Food aid lobbyists will convince Congress to eliminate the cargo preference requirements which mandate that government impelled cargo be shipped on U.S. flagged and U.S. crewed vessels. The current Administration will support these cuts to better promote its wind, solar, and nuclear energy programs. The U.S. maritime community must convince Congress and the Administration that cargo preference and the U.S. mariners who transport this cargo are vital to our national security if it is to avoid this grim prognosis.
The U.S. flag fleet's demise is starkly highlighted in Netflix's new series House of Cards. In the show, a Philadelphia shipyard employing over 10,000 people closes without a flicker of concern from the President or Congress. The blithe indifference to angry, unemployed shipyard workers is contrasted by the high-level concern expressed to a teacher's strike. The teacher strike is viewed as extremely volatile political damage that must be successfully resolved; the same angst does not apply to the perceived simple shipyard closure.
Sadly, real life politicians appear to be following the lead of their Netflix counterpart. Last summer, the Senate voted 74-19 and the House of Representatives voted 373-52 to cut the food aid cargo preference mandate from 75 percent to 50 percent. According to the American Maritime Officers, this middle of the night decision, put 16 ships, 640 seagoing jobs, and 2,000 jobs in related sectors at risk. These are the same crews and ships that the Department of Defense uses to transport military equipment and personnel. Congress had not held any hearings on this subject. The Administration did not oppose it. The massive maritime cuts inserted under a section titled “offsets” were viewed as a simple political decision not worthy of open, transparent discussion.
The shocking cuts are a complete reversal of Congress and the Bush Administration's earlier support for the cargo preference program. In 2008, the House of Representatives voted 392-39 and the Senate voted by Unanimous Consent to expand the scope of the program to include other federally financed programs. The following year, President Obama signed into law the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act; legislation mandating several new federally financed initiatives designed to spur economic growth. The two new laws should have created additional maritime jobs.
Sadly, the Department of Energy (DOE) in the first Obama Administration told applicants that cargo preference did not apply to its billion dollar alternative energy program. DOE's position created confusion within the maritime and energy industries; resulting in Congressional hearings during the summer of 2010. Then Chairman of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation SubCommittee questioned Maritime Administrator Matsuda about the steps the Administration was taking to determine if the cargo preference rules applied.
According to then Chairman Cummings, it “doesn't sound like super, super rocket scientist stuff.” The Congressman didn't understand why the Administration didn't support the Maritime Administration's assertion that the cargo preference rules applied. The sentiment was shared by many in the maritime industry who lost opportunities to be part of the Administration's recovery efforts. These men and women didn't understand why the Administration would give millions of dollars to alternative energy companies but not support the transport of the purchased items on U.S. vessels.
This year, according to Politico, the Obama Administration is considering writing a check for food aid instead of shipping grain and other crops on U.S. crewed ships. An Oxfam representative called this decision on the organization's website a “bold and important step” which would “break the stranglehold of special interests in the US who profit from the current rules, regulations, and red-tape governing food aid programs.” Oxfam is a special interest group. It's mission is to right the global wrongs of poverty, hunger, and injustice; the majority of whom do not live in the United States. The organization's mission does not appear to take into consideration the thousands of U.S. mariners who would be unemployed if the Administration decides to take this “bold” step.
The current food aid program is a win-win for everyone. It creates jobs in the United States and ensures that U.S. vessels and crews are available for the the Department of Defense during times of conflict. In a recent letter to the Office of Management and Budget, the Navy League reminded the Obama Administration that the program provides employment for over 33,000 Americans, $1.9 billion in economic output, and $ 23 million in household earnings. The Navy League is a special interest group which represents the U.S. maritime community. The difference between the Navy League and Oxfam in this battle is that it represents U.S. jobs in a time when people are still struggling to overcome the losses created by the Great Recession.
Bold decisions in a time of economic austerity should be welcomed. We need to cut spending; these cuts however; should not be borne solely by the U.S. maritime community. The Administration should not destroy U.S. jobs merely because the food aid lobby wants a bureaucrat in a random office to push a button instead of having U.S. grain transported on U.S. crewed ships to those in need. The cuts should be evenly distributed across the various interests and all interests should be included in the decision making process.
Members of Congress and the Administration must see the eyes of the individuals who will lose their jobs if cargo preference is completely eliminated. It is easy to create an offset in the middle of the night. It is even easier to cut an agency's budget in a nondescript Washington, DC office building. It is not that easy to look a person in the eyes and tell them that the preservation of the U.S. maritime industry is not as important to our national security as a feeding a starving child overseas or creating the newest alternative energy solution. These face to face meetings must occur now if the U.S. maritime industry is to survive.
Source: Maritime Executive
其他新闻:
1. -中国以每天进口600万桶原油己超越美国成为世界最大原油进口国.
2. -今年第一季中海和中远之亏损为 1.12亿和 3.24亿美元.
3. -韩国釜山港已开始供应低磺船用燃油, 价格每吨较普通油高150美元.
4. -超过一半的韩国船务公司处于亏损状态.
New Building
1. -据报导今年中国造船厂订单将较去年提高70%.
2. -中海集团步马士基后尘向韩国订造 5条 18,000-teu新船.
3. -马士基第一艘18,000-teu Triple-E新船将于今年6月开始服务.
二:港口 (Terminal)
1. -香港 HIT 码头工人罢工己进入第31天. 劳资两方将举行第四次谈判.
2. -中海集团投资厦门豪华游轮码头之建设.
3. -旧金山港广祝开港150周年纪念.
4. -淡水河谷公司第一条40万Valemax型矿砂石船 ‘ Vale Malaysia’, 在半载情况下,于上月15日驶入连云港卸货.
三：买卖/租贷 (S/P & Chartering)
1. S & P
-“Pacific Tiara” (2004) 180310-dwt usd 25.25M,
-“Seakoh” (2000) 172247-dwt usd 16.20M,
-“Brilliant River” (1994) 154249-dwt usd 9.00M,
-“Peruvian Express” (2012) 79252-dwt usd 19.00M,
-“Myrto” (2001) 74430-dwt usd 12.80M,
-“Ultra Paguera” (2003) 53609-dwt usd 15.30M,
-“Glory Sanye” (1994) 45216-dwt usd 6.50M,
-“Orient Triumph” (2013) 33500-dwt usd 18.70M,
-“Great Mary” (2000) 31605-dwt usd 11.00M,
-“Northern Light” (2001) 28756-dwt usd 10.90M,
2. DEMO
-“PSU First” (1990) 258076-dwt usd 450/ldt, Pakistan
-“Papudo” (1993) 68232-dwt usd 341/ldt, unknown
-“MSC Gianna” (1983) 42077-dwt usd 446/ldt, India
-“Stanislaw” (1983) 33627-dwt usd 432/ldt, India
-“Francisca” (1998) 22525-dwt usd 442/ldt, unknown
3. 2013.05.01远东 2003年造二手船平均价值:
种类 油轮 干散货轮 集装箱轮 (teu)_
船型 VLCC Suezmax Aframax Cape Pmax Supramax Handy P/Pmax Pmax Handy_
吨位(万) 31 16 11 18 7..5 5 3 6500 4000 1400
升降(百分比) -1.2% +1.6% 0.0% +1.4% 0.0% 0.0% +0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
四：2013/05/01船用燃油价格(每吨/usd)
来源: Bunkerworld
IFO 380 __IFO 180 MDO MGO
新加坡 612 617 835 845
鹿特丹 588 613 ----- 832
休士顿 589 640 ----- 965
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备注: tbn = to be named ldt = light d/weight ton
usd = u.s.dollar mtpa = million ton per annum
cbm =cubic meter tpa =million metric ton per annu
