2012年干散船运输市场和方式大转变
2010.11.15
一:头条新闻 (Headline news)
贸易风周刊11月11日
1. 北京当局下令积极在国内21个省开发矿砂生产以减轻对国外进口的依赖. 专家预测到2012年 中国每年向国外所购买之矿砂石将减少50%, 加上淡水谷公司所订造之35条和其他公司建造中之50条新型40万吨Chinamax 干散船二者将对海岬型市场带来极大威协.
Beijing ups battle to rein in imports
Government plans to develop China’s mineral resources are expected to hit owners of large bulkers from 2012.
Beijing has launched its biggest mineral-exploration project as it battles to stem the tide of increasing imports.
The plan could see iron-ore imports cut by 50% in the next five years, government officials say.
But the impact of China producing more of its own minerals — particularly iron ore — will begin to take effect at a time when overcapacity issues start to strangle the dry-bulk trade.
Some analysts are already saying that changing trade patterns in two years’ time could “easily prove catastrophic for the industry”, pushing capesize bulkers to eventual “unemployment”.
Wang Min, vice-minister of the Land and Resources Ministry, announced this week that China will launch the exploration project in 21 provinces.
“We believe China has great potential for mineral exploration,” Wang said. His department predicts a 50% cut in iron-ore imports over the next five years.
Imports of copper ore and sylvite are expected to be cut by 75% and 60%, respectively, officials say.
The Greek broker says that in 2000 China imported 50 million tonnes of iron ore, as compared with the total world total of 410 million tonnes.
In 2010, China will import 640 million tonnes, as compared with 1,010 million tonnes for the rest of the world.
This trend has seen China jump from importing less than 8% of the total world iron-ore trade to taking 60% of world imports.
He adds that a rise in very large ore carriers (VLOCs) will have a devastating effect on the market.
He notes there are currently 83 VLOCs trading with a capacity of 24 million tonnes.
However, another 85 are under construction with capacity of 28 million tonnes.
The biggest concern for the dry-bulk market is the 35 ships of 400,000 dwt that are on order, totaling half of the new VLOC capacity at 14 million tonnes, Cotzias says.
It added: “These are indeed serious additions to the large-size segments. Vale SA of Brazil has 27 on order, and this may be detrimental for the future of capes.
“When one of the most serious and important charterers like Vale — who is one of the world’s greatest iron-ore miners — could become ‘autonomous’ and be able to transport on her own all of China’s imports in a period of maximum two years time from now, that could easily prove catastrophic for the industry and end up pushing capes to eventual ‘unemployment’.”
Published: 23:01 GMT, 11 Nov 10 | updated: 20:14 GMT, 10 Nov 10
贸易风周刊11月05日
2. 舟山与广州造船厂共享荣誉.
Zhoushan and Guangzhou to share shipping limelight |
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Friday, 05 November 2010 |
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二:Daily Summary of Baltic Exchange Dry Indices 2010.11.15
Baltic Exchange Dry Index BDI 2261 (down 52)
Baltic Exchange Capesize Index BCI 3530 (down 82)
Baltic Exchange Panamax Index BPI 2294 (down 71)
Baltic Exchange Supramax Index BSI 1495 (down 21)
Baltic Exchange Handysize Index BHSI 828 (down 5)
三:11月15日船用燃油价格(每吨/usd)
来源: Bunkerworld
IFO 380 __IFO 180 MDO MGO
新加坡 488 495 728 737
鹿特丹 475 494 ----- 743
休士顿 484 498 708 -----
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备注: tbn = to be named ldt = light d/weight ton
usd = u.s.dollar mtpa = million ton per annum
cbm =cubic meter tpa =million metric ton per annum
注: 笔者现旅行在外, 本期内容从简, 尚希读者们见谅.