VFB #120 - 40万吨货轮对市场之影响 2011.05.01

2011-05-02 18:06  浏览次数 47

40万吨货轮对市场的影响         

2011.05.01

一:头条新闻 (Headline news)

                   希腊船务日报 0429                巴西淡水河谷公司所订造19艘之中的第一艘40万干散船 “Vale Brazil” 号于53日抵达巴西,它的到来将给淡水河谷帶来对铁矿石价格, 运费的控制和减少18万吨海岬型的参与, 这对沃洲铁砂石出口商和船东们将帶来极大的威脅和恐惧.世界干散船运费市场的运作也将因此重写.( 1 and 2).

   

“Vale Brazil” sends shipping returns plummeting

The biggest iron-ore carrier ever built arrives in Brazil next week, a sign of strengthening demand for commodities that means record profit for Vale SA and a slump in earnings for shipping companies. The “Vale Brazil” is expected to be at Rio de Janeiro on May 3. It is the first of a fleet of 19 such vessels that Vale, the world’s largest iron-ore producer, is building to supply China, which buys about 60 percent of all shipments of the raw material used to make steel.

For Rio de Janeiro-based Vale, the new ships ensure it can export more ore at a time when shortages drove prices 84 percent higher in a year. For ship owners, it worsens a glut that caused returns to drop 66 percent since January.

“These sea monsters are going to prolong the slump,” said Erik Nikolai Stavseth,  “It’s going to change the way iron ore flows to China, and it will take longer until the market rebalances,” he said, predicting some rates in the spot, or single-voyage, market may not be profitable until 2015.

Busiest Route
Vale’s Chinamaxes, named for the customer they are being built to serve, will displace ships competing for the industry’s single-biggest cargo on its busiest route. The ore is currently hauled mostly by capesizes, which use shipping lanes around South Africa’s Cape of Good Hope and Chile’s Cape Horn.

Returns for owners of capesizes, which have less than half the carrying capacity of a Chinamax, are at $6,755 a day, according to the Baltic Exchange in London, which publishes daily rates for more than 50 maritime routes. The assessment is for contracts in the spot market. Ship owners also lease their vessels on long-term contracts at fixed rates.

Owners of capesizes valued at $60 million need $25,000 a day to cover expenses such as crew and financing, according to HSBC Shipping Services Ltd. Variable financing costs mean companies have different break-even rates, and while the cost of a new capesize averaged $59 million over the last decade, it reached $97 million in 2007, according to Clarkson Research Services Ltd., a unit of the world’s largest shipbroker.

Global Recession
The mining company wants to better manage its costs after capesize rates averaged $116,054 a day in 2007, up from $11,928 in 2002. Returns slumped from a peak of $233,988 in June 2008 as the worst global recession since World War II cut the number of cargoes and a growing glut of ships were produced at yards in China, Japan, South Korea and the Philippines.

There are 1,085 capesizes in service, with an order book equal to 40 percent of the capacity of the fleet, according to Redhill, England-based IHS Fairplay, which compiles data on ships and ports. The average capesize can carry about 170,000 tons of cargo, compared with 400,000 tons for a Chinamax.

Vale’s fleet will have a combined capacity of 11.4 million deadweight tons when complete, according to Clarkson data. That compares with 217.1 million deadweight tons for the capesize fleet. China imported about 10.9 million metric tons of iron ore a month from Brazil last year, customs data show.

‘Doesn’t Make Sense’
“They wanted to take freight into their own hands, but freight costs are incredibly low right now,” said Jeffrey Landsberg, president of Commodore Research in New York. “They made the decision when capes were earning over $100,000 a day or $200,000 a day, but when you have capes at $6,000 a day, it doesn’t make sense for a miner to be an owner too.”
Vale’s strategy may save money over the two decades or more the vessels will operate. Costs on the route to Qingdao in China from Tubarao in Brazil have risen or fallen at least 29 percent every year in the last decade, Baltic Exchange data show.

Global trade in iron ore will advance 7 percent to 1.06 billion tons this year, from 450 million tons in 2001, London- based Clarkson estimates. About 90 percent of global trade moves by sea, according to the Round Table of International Shipping Associations.
Steelmaking Nation

While China, the world’s biggest steelmaking nation, sought to curb inflation through four interest-rate increases since October, its economy will still expand 9.5 percent this year, according to the median of eight economists’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The U.S. will grow 2.9 percent and the euro region 1.7 percent, the estimates show.

Iron-ore prices will average a record $164 a ton this year, up from $115 in 2007, Sydney-based Macquarie Group Ltd. said in a report in January. Global steel demand will expand to 1.44 billion tons in 2012, from 1.28 billion tons in 2010, with 38 percent of the increase coming from China, the Brussels-based World Steel Association estimates.

China accounted for 43 percent of Vale’s iron-ore exports by volume last year, and the company has said it will spend $720 million on shipping this year to serve Asian clients. Vale will report adjusted net income of $25.1 billion this year, compared with $17.1 billion in 2010, according to the mean of nine analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

巴西淡水河谷公司所订造之40万干散船 “Vale Brazil” 号对市场揭起巨大风波因它将压低运费因此强迫每年38018万吨海岬型退出市场这对船东们帶来极大恐惧.

The Antipodean Mariner
30th March 2010

“Vale Brasil” - 400,000 –dwt VLOC (Very Large Ore Carrier)

For the followers of Capesize bulk carriers, the Brazilian iron ore giant Vale (formerly CVRD) has created waves with their game-changing 400,000 DWT Very Large Ore Carriers (VLOC).

Vale has ordered as many as 35 VLOC's of between 388,000 and 400,000 DWT to be built at Yards in China and Korea. With

The impact of this rapid introduction of 14M DWT of capacity, or put another way the loss of over 380 Capesize cargoes annually from the freight market strikes fear into the heart of Capesize Owners who 'super-sized' at the peak of the shipbuilding boom. Vale's first VLOC is the 'Vale Brasil', which takes over the 'Berge Stahl's (364,000 DWT) mantle of the largest dry bulk carrier afloat and in service.

“VALE BRASIL”   particulars:

IMO Number 9488918            Flag SINGAPORE            DWT 400,000 tonnes           GRT 200,000
Speed (knots) 14.8                Draught (m) 23.00         Depth Moulded (m) 30.40      Breadth (m) 65.00 (2
Length 362.00 (LOA)   Class Society Det Norske Veritas  Engine MAN-B&W 7S80ME-C8  Power 27,162 (Kw)

 

其他新闻

美联社427                土耳其总理今天宣布在地中海通往黑海的 Bosphorus海峽傍边兴造一条双向长45公里, 150, 25米之运河以便减轻 Bosphorus之船只交通. 如实现的话希望于2023年完工. ( 3 and 4).

 

世界日报 424  一条貫通东南亚五个国家从昆明到新加坡的泛亚高铁经己部份开工并希于2 025年完工. 这条运输线将可减轻我国对马六甲海峽的依赖.( 5).

 

贸易风周刊 0416-30

1. -加拿大之 PSC 上个月共扣留4条货船其中2条为亚洲船东所有:

            “Samsun Boryeong” (1993) 149,000-dwt 因救生和救火设备欠妥被扣2.

            “Nissin Trader” (2001) 173,000-dwt 因机件问题被扣3.

2. -日本PSC 当局今年元月扣留 28条船, 2月份21条犯规货轮, 其中一艘 “Xin An” (2008) 5,500-dwt 因救生艇问题在门司港(Moji)被扣7.

3. -OOCL公司今年第一季货运量提高 12.6%.

4. -中远集团自从去年7月以 5.2亿美元由 Moller公司买进深圳盐田码头 13.7% 股权之后, 有意继续投资海外码头业务.

5. -Dryships 公司以每艘 5420万美元低价向某国企造船厂买进218万吨海岬型干散船.

6. -三月份国内钢铁厂向澳洲大量购买铁矿石数量达 1260万吨.

         希腊船务日报 0416-30

         1. -中国发改委因去年 Rio Tinto以高价铁矿石从中国赚到 140亿美元相等于国内70家钢铁厂之所得而考虑出面调整铁矿石价格协商方式.

         2. -菲律宾外交官 Mr.Neil Frank Ferrer意欲竞选今年6月举行之 IMO祕书长职位. Mr.Ferrer 2007年以第一位亞洲人曾任IMOMSC主席.

         3. -法国CMA CGM在公债 (bond) 市场融资 9.45亿美元

彭博新闻 0416-30

1. -长荣和万海予本月29日开辟一条前往印度东岸 Chennai港口之航线.

2. -巴西 MMX矿石公司预测铁矿石年底价钱将提升到每吨200元美金.

3. -业者报导海岬型船每天8000美元之低迷租金将再保持3个月.

4. -日本地震后钢铁厂停产而减少进口原料而将影响到煤岸和铁矿石之价格.

劳氏船务 0416-30

1. -韩国 Samho造船厂和 Sekwang重工经营困难已向法院申请破产重组.

2. -中海集团今年第一季经营驚見赤字.

3. -迪拜上市公司以 2亿美元向金海湾造船厂订造2 32万吨之 VLCC 经己 10年合约, 2.847亿美金租金租给大中华集团.

4. -印度 Great Eastern 船务公司所退出之3条新造之30万吨VLCC 经由 Maersk Line 接手购买

二:造船 (Shipbuilding)

         1. -在过去的二个星期亚洲造船厂共接到45条货箱船, LNG LPG新船订单, 其中13条为中国造船厂所得, 计有:

                   Zhejiang Ouhus                4  1,700箱位货箱船

                   Jiangsu扬子江                  2  2,550箱位货箱船

                   Tianjin Xingang                  2 30,000吨干散船

                   Tianjin Xingang                  2 18,000吨干散船

                   Dingheng Jiangsu    1   6,500立方米 LPG

         2. -扬子江造船厂宣称今年第一季共接 14条新船订单总全额为 5.123亿美元.

         3. -印度造船业第一条 3,500-teu新船将由西岸之 Cochin 船厂承造.

三:海难 (Casualty)

         1. -Zodiac公司货轮 “Hyundai Oakland” (2008) 6,350-teu本月26日于塔可码卸货时一个装有印刷业所有之 Chlorobenzotinfluoride危险液品铁桶浅漏外排.

         2. - “CMA CGM Christophe Colombo” (2009) 13,800-teu本月中旬于盐田卸货时,船上举行救生艇操练因 quick release钩失灵导致艇中二名法国高员 (officer) 喪生, 一名菲律宾船员受伤.

四:码头       (Cargo terminal)

         1. -4月底上海洋山和宝山货箱码头卡车司机因燃油上涨和码头费用的增加而罢工3.

         2. -宁波港去年进口运作量大增,铁矿石提高14.68% 9398万吨,原油提高 4.02% 4041万吨,货箱提升 29.14% 1339万箱.

         3. -州之 Port Waratah 煤炭服务公司投资 2.27亿沃币扩大 Newcastle 装煤码头.             

         4. -澳洲东岸码头工人本周罢工24小时要求提高薪水. 据报导目前工人年薪为 10万沃币.

五:买卖/租贷         (S/P & Chartering)

1. S & P

-“Blue Sapphire”             (2009) 105860-dwt. Tanker        usd  44.50M, S.Korea

-“New Champio”             (1996)   70296-dwt. Bulker         usd  16.50M, China        

-“Blue Coral”                    (2008)   51300-dwt, Tanker        usd  33.00M, Greek

-“Sanko Stream”             (1998)   50655-dwt. Bulker         usd  19.00M, Unknown

-“Good Sailing”                (2004)   18976-dwt. Bulker         usd  13.50M, Unknown

2. 拆船                      

                             -“Challis Venture”                 115053-dwt  Bulker,                        usd 515/ldt, Bangladesh

                             -“Nicolas M”                            40683-dwt  Bulker,                         usd 517/ldt, Bangladesh

                             -“Bukit Timah”                         23224-dwt  Bulker,                        usd 507/ldt, Bangladesh

                             -“RORO Naesborg”                43782-dwt  Ro Ro,                        usd 485/ldt, India

3. TIMECHARTER

-“Crystal Star”       ( 1998)  178632 dwt  dely Rizhao 17-30 May  trip via Indonesia redel China $6300 daily - Winning
-“Paola Bottiglieri”    (2010)    93350 dwt  dely Wakayama 15- 29 Apr  trip via Indonesia redel Taiwan $8500 daily – cnr
-“Future”                (1990)    77893 dwt  dely Praia Mole 3-8 May trip via Santos redel China $24250 daily +$425000 bb – G.ocea             -“Spar Hydra”          (2011)    57920 dwt  dely Zhangjiang 24-30 Apr  trip via Indonesia redel China $16500 daily – cnr
-“JOSCO Changzhou” (1997) 57600 dwt  dely ex yard Nantong 16/20 May trip with nickel ore via Indonesia redel China $17500 daily –cnr
4. PERIOD

-“Ribbon”              (1998)             74522-dwt,              4  -   6 months        usd 14500/daily  Noble

-“Alpha Happiness”           (1999)             72893-dwt,              4  -   6 months.       usd 14750/daily  Swiss Marine

5. ORE

-“Blue Everest”       (2010)           170000/10%, Port Hedland/青島,  2-11 May           usd  7.85    fio,    sc/30000sc --  CMI

-“Bao Zhu Hai”        (2004)          170000/10%, Dampier/青島,   10-25 May               usd  7.85    fio     sc/30000sc --  Rio Tinto

-Tbn                                         170000/10%, Tabarao/Kwangyang,    27/5 – 9/6    usd 17.80   fio,    sc/60000sc--  POSCO

-“Maritime King”      (2010)           70000/10%, Port Hedland/青島, 25-30 Apr         usd  12.50  fio,    60000sc/20000sc --  Pioneer Metals

6. COAL

-Tbn                     125000/10%, Gladstone/Taiwan,   20/4-3/5                usd 10.88  fio,    sc/22000sc --  Taipower

7. GRAIN

-Tbn                      60000/10, South Brazil/China, 18-27 May                  usd 49.50 fio 8000 satshex- Solebay

8. Daily Summary of Baltic Exchange Dry Indices 2011.04.28

Baltic Exchange Dry              Index      BDI     1269 (up       10)
Baltic Exchange Capesize    Index      BCI      1564 (down    2)
Baltic Exchange Panamax    Index      BPI      1450 (up       58)
Baltic Exchange Supramax  Index       BSI      1390 (up         2)
Baltic Exchange Handysize  Index      BHSI      797 (down    4)

2010/04/29 船用燃油价格(每吨/usd)

来源: Bunkerworld

                                IFO 380           __IFO 180              MDO           MGO   

新加坡                       672                     685                     1025            1035

鹿特丹                       652                     677                     -----               1035

            休士顿                        670                     709                     1050             -----

        洛杉矶                       690                     710                     1055             -----

*****************************************************************************************************         

备注:        tbn         = to be named                       ldt          = light d/weight ton

usd        = u.s.dollar                           mtpa        = million ton per annum              

cbm       =cubic meter                           tpa        =million metric ton per annu

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