VFB #133 - 亚欧运费急剧下降 2011.11.16

一：头条新闻   (Headline news)               

贸易风周刊  11月09日  刊有二篇关于亚欧航线上大批过剩船只所带来之后果.第一篇提到亚欧运费己急剧下降, 跌到每货箱450元美元. 船东们在亚洲到美西航线上每星期己撤出 55,000个货箱但亚欧线上仅减少 16,000个.

第二篇是马士基公司因第三季亏损达三亿美元, 去年同季盈利10亿. 据说该公司目前每货箱亏捐124美元比起去年之每货箱盈利 600美元确有天壤之别. 因此该公司总裁呼吁各航运公司减少亚欧航线上之船只以避免船只严重过剩所带来之后果. 但此警告并未被某些人接纳阳明公司刚宣布准备订造5艘 16,000-teu新船.

Rates in freefall on Asia-Europe

A glut of capacity is causing a major squeeze, while service cuts shore up the transpacific.

A spate of service cuts in the transpacific trade is underpinning container-freight rates there but the Asia-Europe trade remains severely over-tonnaged after an influx of post-panamax newbuildings with nowhere else to go.

Asia-Europe rates have fallen by 56% so far this year and the decline is expected to continue. Just $450 per teu is being offered to some named accounts, only $100 higher than the lows seen in 2009. “It looks like it’s a little bit of history repeating itself,” said broker GFI.

The picture is different in the transpacific where a more disciplined supply-side policy is supporting the market and more services are expected to be suspended. Horizon Lines and Grand China Shipping last week joined the four other lines to have ditched operations in response to low rates. The total weekly capacity withdrawn from the Far East-US West Coast (USWC) route has reached 55,000 teu, according to Alphaliner. Overall, 14 services, representing 18% of the transpacific capacity to the US West Coast, have gone.  

In comparison, only three services — representing 16,000 teu per week — have been removed from the Asia-Northern Europe route, the analyst says.

Alphaliner suggests that carriers found it easier to remove capacity from the transpacific route due to the use of smaller chartered ships that can be redelivered to their owners.

The expectation is that lines will start withdrawing or laying up tonnage in an attempt to reduce capacity going into the traditionally quieter winter season, hoping this will finally stimulate freight rates from the first quarter of 2012.

 “The removal of capacity from the former is proving sufficient to put a brake on further rate erosion. However, the absence of such action on the Asia-Europe trade means rates have further to fall.”  

Published: 23:01 GMT, 10 Nov 11 | updated: 19:54 GMT, 09 Nov 11

Maersk boss calls on boxship players to cut capacity after clocking up $300m loss

AP Moller-Maersk boss Nils Andersen has underlined the need for the container-shipping industry to put its house in order.

His call came as the world’s largest liner operation unveiled a heavy loss of nearly $300m in the third quarter of the year — massively down on a profit of over $1bn in the previous corresponding period.

“We are in a tough industry but the problems are basically homemade — too much capacity in the market,” he added.

Yet the hard market pushed rates down 12% on the previous corresponding period, with some of the heaviest falls on the Asia-Europe front, where Maersk operates around 40% of its fleet.

The situation has deteriorated due to larger vessels entering the trade at a time when peak-season demand dropped off and competition intensified between lines.

Andersen forecasts “a couple of tough years ahead” given that the global orderbook amounts to 4.5 million teu, equivalent to 30% of the current fleet. The backlog is likely to be delivered in full, “even if it doesn’t make a lot of sense”, because of down payments and bank guarantees already in place.

Andersen believes capacity needs to come out of the market in the coming months but pulling a massive amount is unlikely to make a difference. “We do expect there to be some layups during the low season but we also expect demand will not grow during that period,” he said.

“We are not telling the competition what to do but I do not feel this is an environment for smaller players,” added Andersen.

Such warnings appear to have fallen on deaf ears with Yang Ming, the 15th-largest carrier, planning to order five vessels of 16,000 teu that appear to be designed for Asia-Europe. Andersen says the individual shareholders of Maersk’s competitors will have to decide whether such orders are worth it but adds that “nobody is breaking even in Asia-Europe at today’s spot rates”.

With bunker prices nearly 50% higher, Maersk itself is losing $124 per feu, as compared with a profit of over $600 in the same period last year.

Andersen appears determined that Maersk should not lose market share and is ready to use the crisis to consolidate its position.

He adds that there will be “plenty of opportunities as the capacity crisis unfolds further”.

Recent initiatives, such as the introduction of daily departures between Asia and Europe, are expected to consolidate Maersk’s position.

And in coming years, its Triple-E vessels will be able to reduce fuel costs. Such measures are expected to help the line achieve margins some 5% higher than its peers.

Published: 23:01 GMT, 10 Nov 11 | updated: 19:54 GMT, 09 Nov 11