VFB #137 - 展望2012年 2012.01.16

2012-01-18 20:10  浏览次数 47

展望2012     

2012.01.16

新年特刊          新年伊始航运界业者都在希望 2012年市场会有所转机,因此编者特地搜集和刊登国外航运业佼佼者对2012年的看法. 编者认为这些资深船东,造船,中介和银行等业者的观点绝可作为国内业者参考的资料.               

1.       2012年市场将会是怎样?

What’s in store for 2012?                    

Leading lights from across the industry share their thoughts on the outlook for the next 12 months.

SHIPOWNERS

Soren Skou, chief executive of Maersk Line:

According to the Danish liner boss, “2012 will be a hard year for Maersk Line, as it will be for the entire industry”.

“There is likely to be further consolidation in the industry as the need to reduce capacity becomes more urgent. As Maersk Line is the biggest player out there I welcome this.

“It is a year when we will work hard to ensure we retain our position as the undisputed leader in container shipping and come out the other side stronger, leaner and even more customer focused.

Skou adds that the global economy is on a fragile and slightly upward trajectory but even if this is maintained it “will not be enough to allow the container-shipping industry to continue as it is”.

“Most container-shipping companies responded to the economic booms of the recent past by ordering downstream increases in capacity while maintaining a business-as-usual approach. This increased capacity is now coming into play at a time when the global economy is subdued and is likely to remain so.

“There is a huge increase in supply, while demand for containers to be shipped remains stagnant from a global perspective. This has led to a price competition where the rates the industry is charging are unsustainable.”

CK Ong, president of Taiwanese bulker player U-Ming Marine:

Ong is confident that the capesize market will not see the dark days it did in the first half of 2011.

“We won’t see a repeat of the problems we did then,” he said.

Nevertheless, he remains pessimistic on the performance of the dry-bulk sector this year. “I doubt there will be any significant improvement. The overcapacity situation will continue to plague us throughout the year,” he explained.

Although he expects 2012 to be a difficult year for dry bulk, Ong reckons owners that have their finances in order will be able to tough it out.

“But there will be problems for owners who have overcommitted with expensive newbuildings. They will continue to face financial issues and may have a hard time surviving,” he concluded.

Tim Huxley, chief executive of Wah Kwong Shipping in Hong Kong:

Huxley forecasts that the tanker sector will face another challenging year but thinks the shipping industry will have the ability to overcome the problems.

“Shipping always has the ability to ride out tough periods through self-correcting processes. We might see a lot more scrapping this year and will continue to see delays in the delivery of newbuildings, and owners swapping tanker orders into LNG ships.”

On the dry-bulk side, Huxley thinks this year will be slightly better. “The big theme for 2012 will be the availability of credit from shipping banks. Owners will have to come to terms with paying more for credit if they manage to get it.”

Dong Jin Jung, vice-president of South Korea’s Hyundai Merchant Marine (HMM):

The tanker market will continue to experience a tough time due to the large number of newbuildings rolling out of yards, says the HMM executive. “Even if we include some slippages we may still have as many as 60 VLCCs delivered,” he said.

Morten Arntzen, chief executive of Overseas Shipholding Group (OSG):

Arntzen can speak both from the perspective of a shipowner and a ship-finance professional after his earlier career as a banker.

He sounds a little more positive on shipping markets than financial ones for 2012.

On the clean-products front, he said: “I’ve been pretty consistent in saying the products market is on a cyclical upturn, although with some volatility. We expect 2012 to be better than 2011. We’ve invested more in products than in crude in the last four years and we think it’s going to pay off.”

As for crude tankers, Arntzen commented: “We think the crude market will be somewhat better than last year. In 2011, every surprise in the market hurt us: the tsunami in Japan, Libya, the Brent-Dubai spread. And inventories across the globe went to five-year lows. There were a lot of negative factors that are unlikely to repeat themselves, and some surprises might help us. That said, we’re not gambling on a big improvement. We’ll be conservative and run the business as if things are going to stay bad.”

On the outlook for finance, he said: “I think we’ll have the tightest ship-finance market in my lifetime: as bad as the 1980s, if not worse. In the 1980s, banks stayed away because shipping markets were a disaster. Now the banks are in trouble themselves. I don’t see capital markets picking up. Junk bonds will be too expensive for all but a handful of owners. The equity markets will be bystanders until they’re convinced that segment in shipping has clearly turned around.

“Private equity will play a role. It’s smart money and buys when things are really crappy, which they are. There will be more bankruptcies. If rates stay as they are — if the FFA [forward-freight-agreement] markets are right — companies can’t sustain themselves for a long period. There are too many strained balance sheets.”

Herman Billung, chief executive of Golden Ocean:

Billung says dry-bulk players have rightly had a focus on the huge orderbook during the last couple of years.

“Due to the solid increase in demand for coal and iron ore, and other factors like slow steaming, congestion and large growth in Chinese coastal trade, there has been better balance in the market than most analysts had expected. As regards 2012, we will still have to struggle with a too-large orderbook that will put downward pressure on the spot market, as well as values somewhat. But the market is likely to bottom out soon.”

He says Golden Ocean is well placed to benefit from the opportunities 2012 is likely to offer. “The company has strong liquidity, we are fully financed and have good contract coverage. Personally, I believe 2012 will be an exciting year for our company.”

Captain Sunil Thapar, senior director at state-owned Shipping Corp of India (SCI):

Thapar, along with most Indian shipping players, expects the situation will worsen this year.

“Freight rates do not look as though they will improve nor is the pace of scrapping expected to offset the influx of new tonnage into the international shipping industry,” he said.

“SCI is not looking to rush into any fresh acquisitions but will rather preserve its cash reserves to overcome the crisis.”

Published: 23:01 GMT, 05 Jan 12 | updated: 20:01 GMT, 04 Jan 12

Yasumi Kodo, president of NYK:

Kudo says he will rein in spending on newbuildings as the group focusses on logistics expansion and that an oversupply of mega-containerships is predicted.

As a result, “our ordering of new containerships should be suspended for a while, and a light-asset business model should be adopted whereby vessels and space would be leased as needed, thereby minimising downside risks and sustaining business”.

NYK will look to capture opportunities in the rapid growth of the general freight-logistics market in Asia through freight-forwarding business. Turning to tankers, he says the crude-vessel business is also struggling because of oversupply and sluggish demand in developed countries. But “demand in Asia is steadily growing”, he adds.

The company will use its surplus VLCCs to increase its customer base in Asia.

Kudo sees further opportunities in the LNG sector, “which is drawing wider attention due to the recent re-evaluation of nuclear power plants”.

BROKERS

Tim Jones, chief executive of Barry Rogliano Salles (BRS):

“After a year of an ever-worsening outlook, there are signs of getting close to hitting the bottom. The financial crisis looms and colours everyone’s outlook. Thus the easy predictions that the market will be ‘volatile’,” explained Jones.

On the capesize front, he says newbuilding prices and secondhand values are such that long-term levels are close to historic floors for break-even rates and there should be a return to industrial owners looking for industrial returns as opposed to the freight-trading mentality that has dominated the sector for the last five years.

As for panamaxes, he notes the sector is more driven by traders, and the financial health and appetite of the commodities market will have an overwhelming influence on how this sector fares.

“Handysizes/handymaxes are a real mix of the two and with new sources of commodities coming on stream and with changing trade patterns there is hope that here too the worst is over.”

“This being said, the overhang of the oversize orderbook will keep a lid on any fundamental upswings. How the Japanese owners handle their now apparent oversupply, and the shipping banks’ patience, will decide how orderly the maritime sector can get on with the business of developing world trade.”

Peter M Anker, chief executive and managing partner of RS Platou:

Anker says prospects for tankers, except for products, looks dead. Container shipping, which to a large extent depends on demand from quasi-recession-ridden economies in Europe and the US, looks very challenging. Dry cargo, which is more driven by global commodity flows and Asian demand, might be a positive surprise. The only winning shipping segment next year should be LNG!

On his own company’s prospects, Anker commented: “RS Platou’s ship, offshore and finance-brokerage operational expenditure for our 300 employees around the world in 2012 is already covered through our forward book, so it won’t be all bad. Energy-related asset business like offshore and LNG continue to look promising.”

He expects Platou’s investment-banking business in New York, Oslo and Singapore to continue to do well, plus there will be more equity capital markets (ECM) and debt capital markets (DCM) activity to restructure dry, wet and container-shipping balance sheets.

“The bottom line for RS Platou in 2012: a bit challenging but probably acceptable operating results,” said Anker.

FINANCIERS

Stefan Otto, chairman of the board of managing directors at Deutsche Schiffsbank:

“2012 looks like being a very challenging year for the shipping industry. I foresee four major trends:

“First, the traditional financing model will be put to the test. European banks traditionally financing shipping with a Euro funding base and a tightening regulatory framework can no longer meet the financing requirements of the industry. Either the structures change toward the Euro and shorter tenures or banks with a US-dollar funding base need to pick up the tab.

“Second, the German KG [limited partnership] model needs to reinvent itself. Non-recourse SPV [special-purpose vehicle] structures based on single ships are no longer bankable. Shipowners in Northern Germany need to find a stronger corporate backing and more liquidity reserves for cyclical downturns.

“Third, 2012 will be the year when consolidation finally gains momentum. I expect an increase in restructurings and bankruptcies across the board. The solid business models will provide alternatives for ailing fleets and efficiencies in terms of managing these fleets.

“Fourth, markets will remain difficult in general due to still sizeable orderbooks and weakening demand.”

On the bank’s market expectations, Otto said: “For bulkers, the expansion of the fleet is expected to continue. We expect growth in bulk-trade volumes to be limited by export capacities, and less by commodity demand. But further use of slow steaming combined with increased levels of scrapping is expected to see average bulk-fleet utilisation — and charter rates — similar to this year’s levels.

“For tankers, charter rates are under heavy pressures from slower oil-demand growth and continued high fleet growth. The market outlook continues to be weak.

For containers, we expect the average market balance to deteriorate further during the first half of 2012 as fleet growth continues. The second half of 2012 may see improved market conditions based on a return to a normal seasonal pattern on the transpacific trade. The development of the Eurozone will be crucial for the recovery of the container trades on the Asia-Europe trades.”

Lambros Varnavides, global head of shipping at Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS):

“As you know, there are many issues affecting all banks concerning capital and funding. This has created some uncertainty in our business and in addition the shipping market is at a low point in the cycle and indeed could fall lower next year before the recovery begins. However, such markets create opportunities both for owners and their banks and some good transactions will be concluded next year,” said Varnavides.

SHIPBUILDERS

Shipbuilders in the Far East are expecting a difficult market this year with most saying business will be tougher than last year.

WG Jang, vice-chairman of STX Dalian:

Jang expects demand for newbuildings to be poor as banks offering shipping loans are still in the doldrums.

“The price of newbuildings is already at rock bottom but owners will not be able to book new vessels as there will be little financing available,” said Jang.

Nevertheless, STX Dalian still has a $3bn orders target for both conventional and offshore vessels.

Jang says it will continue its marketing effort as before, targeting both foreign and Chinese owners.

“We will also be taking contracts from our sister company, STX Pan Ocean,” said Jang. “Prices are low and STX Pan Ocean can book ships cheaply then charter them out at lower rates than other shipping companies.”

Executive source, Hyundai Heavy Industries:

The inside source says newbuilding demand for tankers will remain lacklustre because of poor rates. “But we think the good demand for LNG newbuildings will continue this year, as China, India, Japan and Europe are increasing their LNG imports and this will result in greater demand for LNG carriers. We foresee that some 30 to 40 ships will be placed this year,” said the executive. “We also expect some increase in demand for LPG newbuildings since the rise in production will lead to an increase of by-products that will need to be shipped.”

On the boxship front, the yard executive reckons some liner companies will order mega-size vessels as they compete with Maersk Line’s giant 18,000-teu newbuildings. “We also expect some orders for feeder boxships of 2,000 teu to 3,000 teu, as not many ships of this size have been booked.”

David Luan, executive director of Jiangsu Rongsheng Heavy Industries in China:

Luan says big yards such as his will be able to ride out the tough period as they have ample order backlogs.

“We are still getting some enquires for bulkers and tankers but much less for the latter,” he commented. “Rongsheng is also targeting the LNG market. We will be bidding for both domestic and overseas LNG-newbuilding tenders.”

LAWYERS

The bottom of a market is a busy place — for ambitious consolidators but also for lawyers.

Jeremy Harwood, partner at New York’s Blank Rome:

One of the firms that have increasingly turned to bankruptcy work expects a full load for maritime practices, especially in New York, says Harwood.

“People expect a wholesale restructuring of the shipping industry and one of the places it will take place is New York City,” he added. “And the US offers the best venue either for restructuring or an orderly liquidation and to avoid a fire sale with seizures all over the world.”

Whether in a US-based Chapter 11 restructuring or a US recognition of a foreign insolvency proceeding under Chapter 15, restructurers will be attracted to the power of US jurisdiction. Few shipowners or major charterers among an insolvent company’s creditors will be able to remain outside a US proceeding and threaten to arrest ships elsewhere because practically all will have contacts with the US that bring them under the court’s personal jurisdiction.

Harwood, an English transplant of long standing in New York, underscores that London lawyers cannot offer the same services because of a legal framework less favourable to workouts.

“In many jurisdictions, including England and Wales, trading while insolvent is a criminal offence and can expose corporate officers and directors to penalties,” said Harwood.

“More bankruptcy” is the telegraphic version of his view. “My forecast for 2012 is that there is still a bottom that hasn’t been reached and we don’t know what events will bring in the world economy.”

Published: 23:01 GMT, 05 Jan 12 | updated: 20:00 GMT, 04 Jan 12

2.       新船价钱10年来最低

Price war as values fall to 10-year low

Discounting in Asia is pushing newbuilding values to levels not seen for a decade.

Discounting at Asian shipyards is pushing newbuilding values back to levels not seen in more than a decade as Chinese and Japanese yards attempt to drum up fresh business.

One owner tells TradeWinds that there is a 170,000-dwt standard-design capesize bulker for 2013 delivery being offered for sale by Imabari Shipbuilding at $45m.

It is unsure whether the sale is a newbuilding contract or a resale. However, the price is an eyewatering $3.5m lower than the average for a capesize contract estimated by shipbroker Clarksons.

A deal at that level would prove to be especially painful for the Japanese yard because of the high value of the yen against the dollar. By way of comparison, at today’s exchange rate the deal equates to just JPY 3.4bn, as compared with the JPY 5.1bn the yard would have earned based on last year’s average exchange rate and newbuilding prices.

An official from Imabari dismisses talk of the deal as a “rumour”, adding that it is not desperate for work at the moment. He points out that its orderbook is full through to 2014. A broking source says he had also heard of the Imabari sale but doubts the veracity of the talk, as no deal has gone through despite what appears to be an unmissable bargain.

The pricing may not, however, be too wide of the mark with VesselsValue.com estimating recent Japanese-built capesize deliveries at just $46m. And talk of bargain-basement offers from yards is not restricted to Japan. Brokers point out that Chinese yards are offering $47m for a standard capesize, some $1.5m lower than the estimated average.

Japanese marketing is, however, focussed strongly on energy-efficient designs that meet or exceed the current requirements of the Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI). Despite the huge savings in fuel consumption that these designs are promising, pricing is still proving very competitive. Brokers tell TradeWinds that super-efficient, 80,000-dwt Eco-design bulkers are on offer at $35m, the same price as a standard panamax.

However the Japanese models come with added extras that will reduce fuel consumption from 30.5 metric tonnes per day to just 26 or 27 metric tonnes per day. At today’s marine-fuel prices, that offers owners savings of around $1,600 per day.

By Adam Corbett and Irene Ang London and Singapore
Published: 19:15 GMT, 11 Jan 12 | updated: 19:15 GMT, 11 Jan 12

3.     东方造船面临危机高层跳槽.

Dongfang in deep trouble as key contracts die and top man leaves

Financial difficulties have killed off orders worth almost $60m at China’s Dongfang Shipbuilding.

And with the yard facing heavy full-year losses and a battle to secure financing for its remaining orderbook, it has let go of its chief operating officer, Sun Xiaoming.

Dongfang, which listed on London’s AIM exchange last year, says a failure to secure bank finance and performance bonds has seen its two largest contracts totalling $52.6m axed.

A further potential order for eight mini-bulkers worth $14.5m has also collapsed after languishing charter markets led the buyer to pull the plug before any down payments were made.

Dongfang is now sitting on orders worth just $5.7m, down from $64.7m when it issued its last profit warning in November.

In a bleak trading update, which sent the company’s shares crashing by two-thirds, Dongfang said: “The directors regret to announce that the outlook has not improved for the company’s shipbuilding division.

“As market conditions have worsened, it has been increasingly difficult to secure the relevant banking finance for the execution of the contracts to allow commencement of work.”

It added: “Whilst the board is extremely concerned about the fall in orderbook and the poor state of the shipbuilding market in general, it has made progress in its discussions with its banks and should be better placed to undertake any new orders as they come in.”

The crashing orderbook is blamed for the resignation of Xiaoming.

Dongfang, which lost £3.7m ($5.81m) in the first half of 2011, says its reversal will be much bigger in the second six months of the year.

Published: 19:14 GMT, 11 Jan 12 | updated: 19:14 GMT, 11 Jan 12

4.     Vale faces tough choice淡水河谷之40万巨轮前景暗淡.

A Brazilian mining giant will pay a heavy price by selling its VLOCs but the political gains may be worth it.

The mooted sale of Vale’s 19 very large ore carriers (VLOCs) with long-term charters back may be a way for the company to solve the problem of how the ships can call at Chinese ports.

But the solution would come at a cost to the Brazilian mining giant that could soar as high as $750m.

Vale took delivery in March of the Vale Brasil, the first of seven 400,000-dwt vessels ordered from South Korea’s Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering (DSME).

A further two have rolled out of Daewoo and one from a total of 12 on order at Jiangsu Rongsheng Heavy Industries in China has been delivered so far. But as yet none have been able to call at any Chinese port as domestic shipowners pressured Beijing to block the vessels in order to prevent being sidelined themselves.

That situation could change, however, since at the tail end of December BW Group confirmed that the 388,100-dwt Berge Everest (built 2011), which is being operated for Vale, had arrived in Dalian with a full cargo of iron ore from Brazil.

The stand-off between Vale and Chinese authorities began last summer.

On its maiden laden voyage from Brazil to China, the Vale Brasil was diverted to Italy with “commercial reasons” being cited. It later emerged that the turnaround was because permission had not been granted for the giant ships to berth in Chinese ports.

Just last month more controversy over the VLOCs arose when the STX Pan Ocean-owned Vale Beijing (built 2011) developed cracks in its hull while being loaded at Ponta da Madeira in northern Brazil. The incident fuelled questions from the China Shipowners Association (CSA), which claimed the vessels could pose an environmental threat.

In addition to Vale’s 19 ships in the water and under construction, a further 16 similar-size vessels have been booked in China and South Korea for other companies and are slated for long-term charter to Vale.

Some analysts see the sale and long-term charter back of the ships as worth the loss in value between contract price and current market values.

ICAP Shipping’s James Leake said last month that “ultimately, this may be a small price to pay for the political capital that could be achieved by transfer of ownership to Chinese interests, with the endgame being the acceptance of these behemoths in Chinese ports”.

Irrespective of the problems with getting the ships into the desired ports, it has already been pointed out that Vale is likely to have a different view on the VLOCs under president Murilo Ferreira than it did under his predecessor, Roger Agnelli, who championed the newbuilding project during his decade at the Vale helm.

Ferreira replaced Agnelli last April in a move that was widely seen as orchestrated by the Brazilian government and president Dilma Rousseff.

Agnelli made too many enemies under the previous administration of Brazilian president Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva, according to local sources. One of his biggest transgressions was selecting China for the newbuilding programme at a time when Brazil was attempting to revive its own shipyards.

Vale’s decision can be contrasted with Petrobras taking 49 tankers from the Promef newbuilding programme of its shipowning subsidiary, Transpetro, all in Brazilian yards.

One local source explained Agnelli’s problem during an interview with TradeWinds earlier this year.

“He lost his mind,” he said. “He thought he was heading up a private company.”

When reminded that Vale was a private-sector company, the source just smiled.

The state has since tightened its grip on the company under Ferreira, sources maintain.

Vale booked the dozen Rongsheng vessels in July 2008. The price was variously reported anywhere from $140m apiece to something over $130m. However, an announcement in September 2010 that Vale had signed a $1.2bn loan agreement with the Export-Import Bank of China and the Bank of China, “which corresponds to 80% of the amount required to fund the construction of the vessels”, would set the price tag at a more modest $128m per ship. The company booked the seven at DSME in October 2009 and June 2010. The first four were said to cost $115m apiece and the subsequent trio $116.67m each.

Since these ships are the biggest bulkers in the world and only came into service last year, no sales data is available for comparison.

At the beginning of this year, VesselsValue.com put a price tag of $88.2m on the Vale Brasil, Vale Rio de Janeiro and Vale Italia delivered from DSME in March, September and October, respectively. The value of the Rongsheng-built Vale China, which came out of the yard in November, was set at $81.7m. But no forward valuations of the ships to be delivered are available.

However, based on some back-of-the-envelope arithmetic, Vale could lose anywhere between $26m and $46m per ship, depending on the shipyard of build and the shifts in asset values.

By Gillian Whittaker and Joe Brady Athens and Stamford

Dark clouds blot a ‘shipping triumph’ (淡水河谷巨轮光辉不再)

Mining giant Vale’s new monster bulkers could turn out to be white elephants as concerns grow over China’s ability to keep up the tempo.

Chinese fireworks at New Year! January has certainly gone off with a bang with what looks like the best and the worst of times.

It should be wonderful that a symbol of boom times — one of the largest bulkers ever built — has finally been able to discharge in the Far East.

But the shipping triumph remains clouded by ongoing political rows over these vessels, financial trouble at a formerly successful shipyard in China and alarmingly poor trade figures.

It hardly needs repeating that growth in the Chinese economy was at the centre of the biggest maritime boom in history.

The unprecedented rise in dry freight rates was driven by what looked like an unquenchable appetite for iron ore, coal and other commodities.

It was this that encouraged Brazilian mining group Vale to decide it wanted to take control of its own shipping and be less dependent on third-party owners.

This resulted in the chartering of the 388,000-dwt Berge Everest (built 2011) and other giant bulkers, some operated by Sohmen family-dominated BW Group.

Vale is understood to have invested over $8bn on “valemax” ships in a bid to lower freight costs between South America and China.

The plan has not quite gone to plan, of course, with the Chinese refusing to allow the first of these nearly 400,000-dwt very large ore carriers (VLOCs) to discharge at a local port.

The stand-off — supposedly over safe docking arrangements but surely really over Chinese shipowner concerns that such monsters represent unfair competition — has just ended.

The Berge Everest has discharged its iron ore at Dalian and more loads are expected to follow. Such VLOCs offer terrific economies of scale but could they turn out to be white elephants?

We have already seen a 5% drop in dry-bulk carryings and a 14% increase in shipping capacity. The $87-per-tonne cost of carrying iron ore from Brazil to China has now slumped to less than one-quarter of that figure.

The poisonous politicking around the ships — made worse by cracks found in the hull of the 400,000-dwt Vale Beijing (built 2011) — has encouraged Vale to think of selling them. The most obvious buyers are the Chinese but will local owners be willing to pay a proper price?

Trade figures released this week show a collapse in the growth of Chinese imports. December increases were 11.8%, as compared with double this figure the month before. Exports from the world’s most populous nation were also down.

China’s economic growth slowed to 9.1% in the three months ending in September from 9.6% in the quarter before and double-digit growth in 2010.

Some Western analysts have talked of the global economy being potentially capsized by China suffering a “hard landing”.

Debt-ridden Europe is already teetering on a second recession and the maritime world has had its confidence hit by the financial collapse of ferry operator SeaFrance.

This follows Hamburg-based shipbuilder JJ Sietas filing for insolvency just before Christmas.

But it is not just Western yards that are struggling as London-listed but China-based Dongfang Shipbuilding made clear this week.

Dongfang chief operating officer Sun Xiaming has just jumped ship as the company admitted its orderbook has collapsed and financial losses are set to grow.

It is clearly not the biggest yard in the world but it is based in the biggest shipbuilding nation and its problems are symptomatic of the crisis gripping even China.

Published: 19:16 GMT, 11 Jan 12 | updated: 19:16 GMT, 11 Jan 12

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