世界最大的船队
2014.01.02
一：本期头条 据中国船舶新闻 Sino Ship News 上月31日报导: 中国正朝着正确方向于2020年超越希腊和日本成为世界拥有最大商船船队的国家.
China on track to be world’s largest shipowning nation
Tuesday, 31 December 2013 | 00:00
China is on course to overhaul the likes of Japan and Greece to become the country with the most merchant ships in the world by 2020, according to early results from The Future of Shipping Poll carried out by our sister title, Maritime CEO. Roughly two thirds of the hundreds of respondents so far reckon China will leapfrog traditional powerhouses Greece and Japan to the number one slot in six years.
Full results of the poll, which closes in mid-January, will be revealed in the next issue of Maritime CEO magazine.
Source: Sino Ship News
Shipping overcapacity will continue into 2014: DVB Bank 船舶吨位过剩将延续到 2014年
Monday, 30 December 2013 | 00:00
The overcapacity problem of the global shipping market is expected to persist going into 2014, limiting substantial recovery for the three main shipping segments of containers, bulkers and tankers, according to a latest report by research and strategic planning of DVB Group.
In container shipping, trade demand is projected to improve in late 2014 on the back of a strengthening global economy with the strongest growth coming from regional trades. However the large part of the orderbook due for deliveries in 2014 is anticipated to keep rates under check, while pressure from supply side in 2015 is not likely to ease even after factoring in postponement, the report stated.
“Meanwhile capacity discipline measures such as cascading, void sailings and slow steaming have limitations, which implies fewer options for liners to maintain the rates at profitable levels. Recovery in time-charter rates are expected to be short-lived and gradual,” it mentioned.
The current container carrier fleet stands at 5,135 vessels aggregating 17.1m teu, according to data from Clarksons. The global box fleet is considered young with an average age of 11 years and approximately 70% of the fleet capacity is below 10 years.
Currently, the dry bulk fleet stands at 9,725 vessels of 678.2m dwt, according to data from IHS Global. The orderbook equates to about 16.6% of the current fleet with 1,365 vessels of 105.3m dwt scheduled to be delivered until 2017.
The crude tanker market, which did not have a good year both in 2012 and 2013, is expected to continue facing pressure from fleet oversupply next year, though asset value and earnings might improve slightly going into 2015.
Fleet oversupply will continue to put pressure on fleet employment even with the expected increase in demand. Scrapping on the other hand is expected to continue with vessels as young as 15 years old, the report highlighted.
Source: Seatrade Global
The New Nicaragua Canal: China Barges In – Analysis 分析中国进军中美洲尼加拉瓜运河事件.
Monday, 23 December 2013 | 10:00
Since it first opened in 1914, the Panama Canal has provided the primary shipping conduit linking the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans through the Americas. And in that time, it has also represented U.S. dominance in the region. Even after the canal passed entirely into Panama’s control in 1999, the United States has maintained a strong military presence in the region, establishing its continuity as the region’s key economic and political player.
All that is about to change.
Nicaragua and China have come to an agreement allowing the construction of a new inter-oceanic canal in Nicaragua, connecting China with the Caribbean and its Atlantic-American trade partners. This won’t just increase the flow of goods between China and the Americas. It will also usher China into the region as a major political force—something that is likely to raise alarm in Washington, which will regard any Nicaragua-China alliance as a destabilizing influence in the hemisphere.
China’s role in the development of this canal is partly about expanding its global trade. But it’s also a way for China to push back against Washington’s militarized “Pacific Pivot,” as well as the U.S. drive to establish a Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership (commonly shortened to Trans-Pacific Partnership, or TPP) that seeks to contain China’s global economic growth.
Rival Alliances
The TPP is a U.S.-led free trade agreement—a partial draft version of which WikiLeaks recently exposed to the public—that is being devised in secret by 12 Pacific Rim governments and 600 of the world’s largest corporations. It seeks to define the rules for investment and trade in the 21st century.
Unless China is willing to adopt rules that will rewrite its regulatory and investment laws to conform to the standard of this agreement—for example, by curtailing its state-owned investments and opening its state-owned enterprises to Wall Street investment rules—China will remain outside the TPP.
This is not to say that China needs to submit to this bullying. For example, China has capitalized its own development fund with the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) association, and organized its own economic partnership with ASEAN member countries in Southeast Asia (many of which are also involved with TPP negotiations) under the auspices of the Regional Economic Comprehensive Partnership (RCEP).
China’s FDI strategies have surpassed analysts’ expectations, and last year China became the third largest investor country, behind the United States and Japan. According to a recent press release by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, China’s tremendous investment in many African countries has driven up FDI in Africa, defying the global trend. In Nigeria alone, China’s investment rose from $75 million to $1.2 billion between 2004 and 2010. The United States, while still a much larger investor, has been unable to match the growth of China’s investment in resource-rich developing countries.
Due to its increased shipping of resources and goods, China has emerged as the new center not only for global manufacturing but for investment as well. To put this in perspective, China’s container traffic measures over 5,000 transits a year, with hauls exceeding 10,000 gross tonnage per ship. According to a World Bank Data chart, China’s container traffic surpasses that of the United States by a ratio of nearly three to one.
The TPP—with its current 12-nation membership, including Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, the United States, and Vietnam—has a combined GDP of more than $27 trillion, representing over a third of global GDP.
Yet despite its economic power and its military influence throughout the region, the United States has not been able to conclude this agreement. There has been focused criticism nationally and internationally against the TPP, as it is seen as an undemocratic agreement primarily written by corporations for the benefit of corporations. Additionally, for the TPP to conclude, it still needs congressional approval. The push to “fast-track” Obama’s Trade Promotion Authority is likely to meet further resistance from lawmakers.
China’s success in regional and global trade, meanwhile, has given it the economic and fraternal clout to partner with the other ex-colonial—or ex-socialist—emerging economies to provide an alternative model to the neoliberal TPP. It is therefore no coincidence that none of the BRICS countries participates in the TPP.
What BRICS offers is a new reserve currency that helps stabilize economies in developing markets, thereby providing greater access for development and trade, as well as a less draconian debt structure, compared to Wall Street investments.
Of course these competing systems are not mutually exclusive—after all, China and the United States have a symbiotic and integrated economic relationship with each other. However, the TPP and the BRICS economies are competing over the trade and investment rules for the 21st century—and the neoliberal model no longer gets the last word.
Global South Benefits
The proposed Nicaraguan canal is a tangible symbol of this emerging multipolarity.
The canal would bypass not only the already congested Panama Canal, but also the strong U.S. military presence patrolling the area. The access provided by Nicaragua’s canal would be a welcome and long-sought opportunity for Global South economies—especially for regional economic and political trading blocs like the South American Common Market called Mercosur, and the Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas (ALBA).
As we unpeel the geographical layer of the TPP, we find that the TPP countries form an integrated wall separating the Mercosur and ALBA economies under Brazil’s economic influence from the Asia-Pacific economies under China’s regional influence—in effect turning the west coast of South America into a barrier between two of the BRICS charter members. A Nicaraguan canal not only provides the maritime access that streamlines the supply chain between China and Brazil, but it also provides new trade advantages to the Global South.
This does not necessarily alienate the United States, but it does have the potential impact of reducing U.S. economic and military hegemony in the region.
In a 2008 hearing before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs on “The New Challenge: China in the Western Hemisphere,” U.S. representatives expressed concerns that Latin American countries were beginning to turn away from U.S. investment in favor of China. Latin America expert Daniel Erikson testified that “the pace of trade between China and the region has skyrocketed from $10 billion in 2000 to over $100 billion in 2007.” In 2012, China surpassed $200 billion in trade, doubling the 2007 figure, and supplanted the EU as Latin America’s second-largest trading partner after the United States.
The Nicaragua canal would be yet another blow to U.S. influence in the region. Although the United States relinquished its official sovereignty over the Panama Canal in 1999, it continues to have a strong military presence in the region, maintains first rights for the passage of military ships, and cooperates with Panama to patrol and check ships without warrant. At this time, the United States does not have such an agreement with Nicaragua.
“Containerment”
Both the TPP and the U.S. “Pacific Pivot” have been framed as a kind of “China containment strategy.”
This is not to say that the United States is practicing the same kind of containment strategy it has towards North Korea. For one thing, as long as China’s trading partnerships remain productive, any suggestion of containing China would likely be seen as a deluded conceit.
Perhaps a better description is that the United States is practicing a “containerment” strategy with China—a policy that seeks to assert greater control over China’s overseas investment by controlling the shipping lanes that move the bulk of resources and manufactured goods to and from China. If China gets a new route to the Atlantic, this strategy may wither on the vine.
A China-led Nicaragua Canal challenges Washington’s 150-year-old claim of military and economic hegemony in the Western Hemisphere as outlined in the Monroe Doctrine. The rise of the trans-global BRICS economy, coupled with a new inter-oceanic canal that the United States has no jurisdiction over, means that the United States has been, at this moment, out-maneuvered by China.
Whether Washington attempts to reassert its hemispheric dominance remains to be seen. It will certainly be a challenge, since blowback from the United States’ historically brutal policies in Latin America could very well strengthen economic ties among the developing economies represented by China and their BRICS partners.
Although the completion of a Nicaragua Canal will likely be fraught with difficulties, this China-Nicaragua partnership demonstrates that China will not be container-ed.
Foreign Policy In Focus contributor Arnie Saiki is the coordinator for Moana Nui Action Alliance, which focuses on Pacific Island political and economic justice issues.
其他新闻:
1. -长荣将再租用 7条 14,000-teu 货箱船以便减轻箱位成本.
2. -长荣出售32,000个货箱得现金 6,400万美元去减轻2013年度之亏损.
3. -欧盟国家船队可能会杯葛菲律宾之高级船员, 原因是该国海员之STCW 训练不够完善.
4. -2013年全球船东共花掉210亿美元 (或 1,500次交易)购买二手船舶.
5. -江苏 ChangRong 拆船厂获日本 NK船级社所发之IMO合格证书.
6. -比利时之Euronav 公司准备接手马士基油轮公司属下之 15条 VLCC 油轮.
7. -韩国现代船务公司从今年开始布置10条 13,000-teu 货船于亚洲到欧洲航线和从 2016年开始安排 6条 10,000-teu于亚洲到美东航线.
8. -NYK 公司于上月17日接收第二条新型装煤船,该船特奌是宽舷和吃水浅,但载重却较普通Panamax 型多出2万吨.
二：造船 (New Building)
1. -中运董事会通过该公司购买9条新船4x64,000-dwt和 5x9,400-teu之提议.
2. -南京油轮准备购买 10条 VLCC和 10条 MR油轮.
3. -斯里兰卡船务公司向中国订造2条 64,000-dwt 新船.
4. -香港招商局子公司明毕向澄西造船厂订造4条64,000-dwt新船.
三：港口 (Terminal)
1. -澳州西岸装矿砂石港 Port Hedland 上月30日受強力台风 ‘Christine’ 所袭造成损失巨大.
四：海难 (Casualty)
1. -韩国某造船厂上月30日有条新船在试航时与油轮 ‘Maritime Maisie’ 相撞, 因后者载有 29,337吨易燃烧之化学原料, 二轮均发生火灾, 64名船员被救出.
五：买卖/租贷 (S/P & Chartering)
1. SALE AND PURCHASE
Vessel Size Built Buyer Price
Pacific Challenger 149 026 1995 Winning Shipping 12,00
Toucan Bulker 57 991 2011 SuisseAtlantique 29,50
Thunderbird Bulker 57 991 2011 SuisseAtlantique 29,50
Dyna Crane 55 705 2006 Greek 21,50
New Rainbow 44 183 1998 Undisclosed 11,50
Oriental Zinnia 14 045 2002 European 11,70
2. SOLD FOR DEMOLITION
Vessel name Size Ldt Built Buyer Price/ltd
APL Spinel 66 512 21 439 1996 Singapore 451
Maersk Dartford 59 093 19 631 1993 India 444
Nedlloyd Honshu 55 242 23 857 1995 India 444
Nedlloyd Oceania 46 985 17 600 1992 India 444
Guadalupe VictoriaII 45 350 10 890 1983 Mexico 442
Lazaro Cardenas II 45 350 10 890 1982 Mexico
Nuevo Pemex I 42 202 10 890 1987 Mexico
3. CHARTERING
Handy
In the Atlantic we see activity coming off and rates slowly sliding before the holidays. This was anticipated and we believe same trend will last till over New Year. In the Feast we see the same tendency with rates slipping due to few fresh cargos. The nickel ore trade from Indo is almost disappeared and the rates have dropped somewhat USD 3-4k since last week. One healthy note from the market is the MEG-WCI to China rates which still achieve a good USD 14/15k.
4. Panamax
After last week’s rally in the Panamax market we experienced some stand-off between owners and chtrs this week. Some chtrs will have to pay up to cover their end Dec.beg Jan cargoes, however, there is not much free tonnage in the North Atlantic. Tarv’s are now being fixed in the low 2-‘s region and shorter rounds like Murmansk/Baltic rounds have been done in excess of usd 30k on voyage basis. As the holidays are approaching limited activity is expected for the next two weeks followed by a strong start of the New Year. In the eastern hemisphere rates are coming off. The impact on Indonesian ban on coal export causing lee activity on the Indo/China rounds. Pac .rounds are now being fixed in the low teens. The period market has been somewhat active although with gradually less support from FFA’s short period in the 14k range and one year around 13k. but takers for period seems to be talking a breather over the holidays for now.
5. Capesize
At time of writing, a number of vessels loading or in ballast toward W.Austr enjoying daily returns at close to $45k. However, after two weeks of
relentless demand for prompt tonnage, the Aussie miners appear covered for Dec, and Pac rates have plummeted toward their present value of around $25k/day. The heavy Dec ore re-stocking appears to have contributed to some delays in N.Chinese ports, which may further depress Pac rates once these ships open end of month. Fronthaul rates for Jan remain firm and tonnage supply in the Atl appears balanced against cargo volume. As such,paper hangs in the balance. With Jan and Q1 contracts currently trading at 19.5k and 13.5k respectively, the front end appears backwardated against a spot 4TC rate of 33k. Just how far the 4TC rate comes off will be dependent upon seasonal variables, but with increased Austr i.ore supply set to come online for Q1 and Q2, the effect of these variables on rates could well be mitigated compared to years previous.
六. 2013/12/31 远东2003年造二手船平均价值:
种类 油轮 干散货轮 集装箱轮 (teu)
船型 VLCC Suezmax Aframax Cape Pmax Supramax Handy P/Pax Pmax Handy
吨位(万) 31 16 11 18 7.5 5 3 6500 4000 1400
价值(万美元) -1.4% -2.6% -1.6% -0.7% -7.0% -3.4% -2.2% +0.4% +0.0% +0.0%
七：2013/12/31船用燃油价格(每吨/usd)
来源: Bunkerworld
IFO 380 __IFO 180 MDO MGO
新加坡 598 610 915 920
鹿特丹 595 622 ----- 900
休士顿 590 650 ----- 995
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备注: tbn = to be named ldt = light d/weight ton
usd = u.s.dollar mtpa = million ton per annum
cbm =cubic meter tpa =million metric ton per annu
