VFB #188 - 世界之最 2014.03.16

2014-04-04 16:42  浏览次数 1

世界之最  

 

2014.03.16

 

一:本期头条   2013中国之海运进口货物共达21亿吨成为世界最大之进口国家较 十年前之5亿增加了16亿吨, 因此称霸干散船市场和左右运费…. 如不是中国的兴起世界船东情况将是不堪设想,所以船东们要向中国致敬给他们帶來非常可观的利润.

You Knew China Was Big, But Now It's The Biggest 

Monday, 17 February 2014 | 00:00 

In 2013 Chinese seaborne imports reached two billion tonnes, making it the world's biggest seaborne importer. Europe's imports had briefly edged up to 2.1 billion tonnes in 2005, but after the 2008 Credit Crisis they fell back to around 1.8 billion tonnes. Meanwhile China produced its most aggressive growth surge yet, doubling its imports, from 1.0 billion tonnes in 2008 to 2.1 tonnes in 2013.

Hitting the BIG time

It is now 10 years since Chinese iron ore importers hit the dry bulk market. In 2003 China imported 500mt of cargo and steel production was only 221mt. 

Forecasters, including the Chinese government, predicted that steel production would reach 300mt in 2010, a number which looked ambitious compared with the historic growth rates in European and Japanese steel. But by 2010 China’s steel production was 627mt (and an estimated 779mt in 2013). This is twice the forecast and a warning of the difficulty of predicting the trade of an economy with 1.4 billion people.

Shipping’s Sino-Surprise

That seemingly unrepeatable surprise turned out to be just the beginning. Unbelievably, in the 5 years after the Credit Crisis China’s imports accelerated. A massive leap of 370mt in 2009, as the government fired up the economy, was followed by 105mt growth in 2010 and close to 200mt a year since then. Since China’s imports of 1.4 tonnes per person are still way below Europe’s 4 tonnes per capita, who knows where it will end?

Dry Bulk Domination

Dry bulk commodities continue to dominate Chinese imports, accounting for 74% in 2013. Although iron ore now accounts for 39% of imports, over the last 5 years the range of commodities has widened. In the lead is coal which grew from 39mt in 2008 to 302mt in 2013, overtaking oil to become the biggest energy import (by weight). Minor ores are another big grower since the Credit Crisis. In 2006 imports were only 35mt, but they reached 196mt in 2013. Although some of these cargoes are short-haul, they have broadened China’s demand for bulkcarriers, especially the surging Supramax fleet.

Future Growth - Expect Surprises

Looking ahead, these trends are quite encouraging for bulker owners. Steel is bound to stabilise at some stage, but recent developments suggests that for an economy like China, slower GDP growth can still suck in more and more dry bulk cargo. Of course that's not a novel development, it happened to Europe, but it's encouraging to see the range of imports widening as the economy matures.

Wild Horses, Busy Ships

So there you have it. China made the shipping industry rich in the 2000s, a great gift. But an even greater gift has been the extra billion tonnes of cargo since the Credit Crisis. Without it, shipping would be a much sadder place today. So maybe now’s the time to raise a glass to China and drink a toast to an easy passage for China's next billion tonnes.
Source: Clarksons

其他新闻: 

    1. -印尼 LNG出口大幅下滑, 数量仅为世界之百分之七.

     2. -服务于台塑公司油轮之王瑋瑄, 高雄海洋科技大学轮机系2012年毕业生, 成为台湾第一位女性三管轮月薪11万台币(3,300美元). ()

    3. -Anglo Eastern 船管公司管理之船队己达500条其中370条之高级船员为印度籍.

    4. -据报导淡水河谷40万吨船 ‘Vale Indonesia’日前己进入青岛卸货.

    5. -DNV-GL所发证以 LNG作为主机燃料的船只已超过100.

    6. -国际劳工协会(ILO) 建议船上合格水手(AB)之月薪应于201511日开始提升到592美元.                     

二:造船       (New Building)

1. Minsheng places orders for 30 ultramaxes at CIC Jiangsu     民生财务租贷公司向中海工业(江苏) 订造3064,000-dwt有吊货杆之Ultramax型干散船, 总价值8亿美元, 这乃中国造船厂有史以来最大的一张订单.

 

[10/03/14]

Shanghai: Minsheng Financial Leasing has signed with CIC Jiangsu Shipbuilding, the shipbuilding arm of China Shipping Group, for 30 ultramax bulkers. The order is the largest order ever for the shipyard with a total value of $800m.

The contract includes 12 firm orders for delivery in 2015 and 2016 and another 18 options which are to be exercised at five-month intervals.

Minsheng Financial Leasing currently has another 10 bulkers on order, includings two 67,000 dwt bulkers at Zhenghe Shipbuilding, five 47,500 dwt bulkers at Jiangsu Eastern Shipbuilding, and three 76,000 dwt bulkers at Rongsheng Heavy Industries.  

2. -泰国 Precious船务公司向南京舜天SaintyMarine造船厂订造10 64,000-dwt Ultramax 型干散船. 造价每条2,740万美元 交船期为2016.

3. -德国 Oldendorff船务公司向武汉青山Qing Shan造船厂订造6 64,000-dwt Ultramax 型干散船. 交船期为2016.

三:港口 (Terminal)

1. Too Many Vietnam Seaports Spoiling Terminal Business    位于胡志明市东80公里之越南第一大深水港盖梅 (Cai Mep)自从2009年投入运作后因该国港口过多导致业务清淡,总经理 Robert Hambleton叹说门可罗雀’.

Saturday, 15 March 2014 | 00:00 

Robert Hambleton wants to hear more noise from the huge container port outside his office near Ho Chi Minh City. Towering cranes at the next-door competitor are silent, without a ship on the horizon.
“It’s a brand-new terminal without any customers,” said Hambleton, general director of Cai Mep International Terminal Co. “You get a sense of how dire the situation is. The whole terminal industry is oversupplied.”
With companies from Intel Corp. (INTC) to Samsung Electronics Co. (005930) building billion-dollar factories in Vietnam, regional governments have established competing ports capable of handling overseas traffic, causing plunging rates and losses for operators estimated at $1.5 billion or more, according to Seaport Consultants Asia.
About $2 billion has been invested in state-of-the-art terminals at Cai Mep port, Vietnam’s only deep-sea facility located at the mouth of the Cai Mep River and South China Sea, by foreign investors and state-owned and private Vietnamese companies. Opened in 2009, the port is part of the country’s goal to boost shipping volume more than 130 percent from 2012 to the end of the decade.

2. 越南斥巨资建全球最大集装箱港 首个中转深水港已投产 
   据新华网消息,布隆博格318报道说,越南政府已经制定了一项计划,将投资数百亿美元建设一个大型集装箱运输港,以谋求在全球出口市场上获得比中国 为有利的竞争地位。报道中援引消息人士的话说,越南政府计划投资210亿美元在胡志明市附近建一个全球最大的集装箱运输港,可以停靠目前全球最大的集装 箱运输船。这个港口建成后将挑战香港和新加坡在全球贸易体系中的地位。 中国港口网资料,目前越南全国共有大大小小港口126个,其中24个是国际海港。在24个国际海港中,16个是集装箱港、8个专用港口,用于装卸煤炭、石 油等。港口数目虽不少,但大多是小港和浅水港,特别是港口设备落后,满足不了日益增长的装卸要求。目前,越南主要的港口有两个,即海防港和胡志明港。北方 的海防港(HAIPHONG)是全国最大的港口,年装卸量占整个北方的90%,海防港也是最大的船务和造船中心。另外一个主要港口是胡志明港 HOCHIMINH),胡志明港有三个不同的码头,分别是HOCHIMINH VICT(胡志明国际港)、HOCHIMINH CAT LAI(胡志明泰莱港)、HOCHIMINH NEW PORT(胡志明新港)

3. -迪拜世界码头公司将于印度孟买 Jawaharlal Nehru港投资2亿美元兴建一个每年运作80万货箱之码头.

四:海难(Casualty)            

1. -Malta ’Sea Pride’ 14日在美东N.HPisctataqua河出口时撞上大桥.

2. -土耳其旗 ’Yusuf Cepnioglu’ (1995) 547-teu 8日在爱琴海Mykonos岛搁浅, 损失严重.

五:买卖/租贷         (S/P & Chartering)           

1. SALE AND PURCHASE

Vessel                        Size                 Built           Price (Mln$)      
Koho                          172964               1999            25.20
Mona Pegasus                  172571               2000            28.00
HB Angel                      81728                2014            27.00
Evian                         51201                1996             7.20
Mystic Treasure               35800                2014            23.50
Great River                   25565                2002             8.00
Harriet                       35062                2001            14.00
Ice Explorer                  146427               2006            41.00
Ice Traveller                 146356               2007            44.00
Elise Schulte                 106122               1999            12.30
Cielo Di Parigi               36032                2001            13.30
YM Jupiter                    15995                2007            20.00
YM Saturn                     15988                2007            20.00

2. SOLD FOR DEMOLITION
Vessel name               D/W               Built             Buyer          Price
Southernpec 8             275993            1990              Pakistan        450
Kima                      95822             1993              Bangladesh      485
Karia                     29212             1978              India           466

3. CHARTERING

Handy

Atlantic is a bit under pressure for spot tonnage, but the underlying sentiment is positive for the short medium future. 2-3 legs are done at 12,750.

Fronthaul typically at 19k. The Far East market is in an upward trend, with few ppt vessels available. For short period vessels open N.China and

S.China mid 14 ́s is achievable. NOPAC runs in the mid 13k where trips via Indo to EC India paying low 15k. Vessel in WCI can achieve around 12k for

trips to Feast where vessels in MEG and Red Sea were fixed at around 14k for same direction.

Panamax

The recent optimism driven by the "caper" and the paper has evaporated with further negative support from a clear lack of fresh requirements.

The poor trend is obvious in the Atlantic where Owners are willing to take 5k on T/C for a short run, and less on voyage.

Chrtrs have a growing list of candidates to select from, but as Owners are reluctant to fix there could be pockets giving better returns. However, optimism is still alive among all the Owners of the substantial number of vessels heading for ECSA grain to catch a Brazilian contango. Rates have in fact improved to 17k + 700 GBB APS ECSA and

Well above 41 pmt for April loading. The eastern hemisphere is softening for the same reasons, lack of activity and/or repositioning for ECSA grains. Typical levels at 10-11k. NOPAC activity is scarce. The forward curve has lost momentum, whereas period rates still hover in the 14-15 range for short period up to a year.

Capesize

A tumultuous week for the big ships, which has seen significant value chipped off the forward curve (Q4 down $4,500 w-o-w) and as of Wednesday, a significant

Correction in physical rates. (The West Australia index rose to low $11 ́s before  sharply correcting to $9 PMT levels at the time of writing.) The week began with

Iron Ore plunging to $104 PMT (62% FE CFR Tianjin), the largest daily loss since 2009, amid talks of a credit squeeze and mounting port stockpiles in China.

The arguments will continue as to whether this commodity price correction will have a bullish (cheaper relative foreign iron ore availability) versus bearish

(signs of a general reduction in demand) impact on cargo flow but what is undeniable is that a few more questions are being posed. In light of this, it is perhaps

not surprising that we saw a 5-year deal on a nice 180kdwt ship at 28k/day fail early this week. Further losses on the paper may see more charterers retreating to reassess their period plays.

. 2014/3/14    远东2004年造二手船平均价值:

种类                       油轮                            干散货轮                           集装箱轮         (teu)

船型        VLCC   Suezmax   Aframax   Cape   Pmax   Supramax    Handy    P/Pax    Pmax    Handy   

吨位()             31          16           11          18         7.5            5           3         6500     4000      1400  

价值(万美元)    +3%   +0.3%     -0.9%    +6.6%     +2.4%    -1.0%     -1.0%    0.0%  -0.7%   +1.1% 

2014/03/14船用燃油价格(每吨/usd)

来源: Bunkerworld

                                IFO 380           __IFO 180            MDO           MGO    

新加坡                       596                     610                   887              897

鹿特丹                       572                     595                   -----              865

            休士顿                        578                     648                   -----              972

*****************************************************************************************************          

备注:        tbn         = to be named                       ldt          = light d/weight ton

usd        = u.s.dollar                           mtpa        = million ton per annum               

cbm       =cubic meter                           tpa        =million metric ton per annu

 

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