40万吨船的到来
2014.10.02
一：本期头条 据9月26日媒体的报导招商局能源和巴西淡水河谷(Vale) 签署一份合约由招商局在国内订造10艘40万吨超大型矿砂船 (VLOC) 然后以25年租约租给淡水河谷, 这和上星期中远与 Vale 所签之14艘合约略为相似, 二份合约共为24艘, 这个庞大的船队每次可装运 960万吨的矿砂石, 这是个双赢的局面也意味着当局即将解除禁止40万吨船进入国内港口的禁令. 在不久的将来我们可以看到40万吨的VLOC在国内港口卸货.
China Merchants Energy Shipping deal raises hope for Valemax return to Chinese waters
Growing signs of Beijing lifting the ban on the entry of mega ore vessels after Vale signs orders with the China Merchants unit and China Cosco.
China Merchants Energy Shipping (CMES) has partnered with Brazilian mining giant Vale in a 25-year freight contract with the order of 10 very large ore carriers (VLOCs), a step that would seem to further indicate Beijing is lifting the ban on the entry of Valemax, the world's largest dry-cargo ship.
Vale is under pressure to use larger vessels for iron ore shipments to China to achieve economies of scale and cut freight costs.
Shanghai-listed CMES said yesterday that it had signed a strategic framework with Vale in Beijing.
The deal follows a similar one between China Cosco Holdings, a unit of China Ocean Shipping (Group), and the Brazilian miner two weeks ago, in which the two agreed on a 25-year contract that involved 14 VLOCs.
CMES is a subsidiary of state-owned China Merchants Group.
Vale will charter 10 carriers from CMES on a long-term basis.
Details of both deals remain sketchy, but the vessels to be ordered are expected at the Valemax class with a capacity of 400,000 deadweight tonnes, topping the cap that is now prohibited at mainland ports, according to an industry source.
The mainland's two other national carriers, China Shipping (Group) and Sinotrans & CSC, were not joining any deal with Vale, the source said.
A Valemax vessel might cost between US$100 million and US$105 million to build, said a shipbrokering source, putting
Vale, facing more than three times longer transit times to China compared with its Australian competitors, opted to build 35 Valemax vessels in 2008 to achieve economies of scale and slash transport costs.
In early 2012, the Ministry of Transport disallowed the entry of Valemax after lobbying from the China Shipowners' Association, which is chaired by the head of China Ocean Shipping (Group)
The ban made Vale's iron ore exports at a sharp disadvantage to its Australian competitors.
Australia has dominated shipments to China, accounting for 51 per cent of iron ore imports by Beijing, up from 42 per cent in 2009, government data showed. In contrast, Brazil's share has declined to 19 per cent last year from 23 per cent in 2009.
"The fact that distances from Brazil are longer and therefore shipping costs are higher than from Australia has certainly been a deterrent," said Ralph Leszczynski, Singapore-based research director at Italian shipbroker Bancosta. "For China's steel industry, it makes sense to diversify sources of supply and not to be too dependent on Australia."
Vale unveiled a plan last month to double exports to the mainland in five years
Does China's shipbuilding 'white list' create a blacklist? 中国政府为整顿造船业所发表的白皮书是否会变成黑名单? 该白皮书从国内300多家造船厂中挑出51家国企和民企值得支持的厂家和21家可以考虑的名单, 那剩下的厂家又该何去何从?
The recently announced Chinese shipyard “white list” is meant to be a step-change for China’s shipbuilding sector in terms of singling out yards that are worthy of policy support.
A first batch of 51 state-owned and private enterprises was announced by the ministry of industry and information technology in early September, and 21 more are being considered, putting the potential total at 72. At present, China has around 300 active yards, and the China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry typically tracks 87 leading Chinese yards for regular statistical records.
Looking at the numbers, a question that arises is what would happen to the remaining yards that did not make it to the “white list”? Being able to receive favourable policy support and gain easier access to loans especially from state banks are the key advantages for “white listed” yards. As for those “unlisted” yards, even if they are actually decent and reliable, they could be forced to shut down if access to both bank loans and government support is totally cut off. To put it crudely, those that do not make it to the “white list” are in fact “blacklisted”.
Beijing wants to see only 10 major yards account for 75% of the country’s share of shipbuilding, as the sector undergoes a consolidation to remove surplus yard capacity. The lean ‘white list’ yards among 300 active enterprises is perhaps the strongest indication of Beijing’s resolve to streamline the shipbuilding industry.
But whether the grand aim of the “white list” can indeed solve the problem of excessive yard capacity is as yet unknown. Shipbuilding firms that do not qualify may turn their yard capacity to building offshore units instead, potentially creating a new problem of overcapacity in the offshore sector. Banks may also be more willing to extend loans for offshore deals and overlook the absence of their ‘white list’ status.
Questions also linger over the selection process, as financially-shaky Jiangsu Rongsheng Heavy Industries and Guangzhou Shipyard International are listed, even when they are both planning to restructure.
Beijing can definitely afford to shed more light on the grey areas of its “white list” policy.
Japan’s Marubeni to sell 40 pct of Canada coal project to HK’s Up Energy 日本红丸会社把加拿大 Grande Cache煤矿公司之40%股杈卖给香港 Up Energy发展公司. 另一方面因最近煤炭价格的下跌日本住友会社和淡水河谷合作之沃洲煤矿将于明年正月份停产.
1/10/2014
Japan’s Marubeni Corp on Wednesday said it plans to sell its 40 percent stake in Canada’s Grande Cache Coal (GCC) to Hong Kong’s Up Energy Development Group Ltd.
The two companies signed a non-legally biding memorandum of understanding (MOU) on the acquisition, Marubeni said in a statement without disclosing a price.
Up Energy, in an exchange filing late on Tuesday, said it had entered into a non-legally binding MOU with Marubeni.
Earlier this week, Japan’s Sumitomo Corp said it and partner Vale SA will shut down their Isaac Plains coal mine in Queensland, Australia by the end of January next year because of the slump in coal prices.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Yuka Obayashi; Editing by Christopher Cushing)
其他新闻 (Other News)
1. -人民艮行日前悄悄的对国企5大艮行注资 810亿美元.
2. -MOL和 Mitsui合资租用三条155,000立方米的新造 LNG船从美国路易斯州之 Cameron LNG站装运岩页气到日本.
3. -美国今年黄豆和玉米大丰收, 占尽各运输工具如火车及驳船, 而影响到小麦的出口.
4. -国际矿砂石价钱于9月18月从2年前的每吨美金134.5元下滑到81.5元, 这将影响到中国在国外所投资之铁矿.
5. -中远于今年7和8月份共拆掉8条干散船计 563,798-dwt.
6. -伊拉克反对派库德族卖400万桶原油给中国.
7. -伊朗2 年前发现之矿砂石矿 (存量全球排名15), 已开始出口, 第一批卖给中国.
8. -3条拖船把一艘 FPSO 海上原油制造和储存船从韩国拖到挪威历时61天.
9. -迪拜港成立国际海事仲裁中心,意跟伦放敦和新加坡竞争.
10. -因原油价钱跌破百元大关, 联合石化 (Unipec) 在新加坡租用 44.2万吨油轮 ‘TI Europe’作为储仑. 租期第一个6个月租金每天 25600美元第二个6个月每天 28,600美元.
11. -联合石化破记录在9月份单月租下3条 VLCC从挪威装运原油到宁波.
二：造船 (New Building)
1. -中国造船界今年前半年共接新船订单达 4,080万吨 dwt.
2. -中远向长兴岛订造5条 14,500箱位新船, 总值6.12亿美元. 2017-18年交船.
3. -宁波海运向国内船厂订造3条 50,000-dwt装煤新船, 每条 8,320万美元.
4. -阳明向加拿大 Seaspan 租用5条 14,000-teu 由台湾造船厂建造新船. 租期10+2年.
5. -K Line向日本 Imabari造船厂订造5条 14,,000-teu新船.2018年交船.
三：港口(Terminals)
1. -招商局投资6亿美元于科伦布港填海兴造大型港口城市和码头.
2. -三家印尼国企合资在巴里岛之 Tanjung Berosa 兴建 LNG 天然气接收站.
3. -印度孟买港 JNP 货箱码头(每年运作410万箱)因安装新吊杆部份泊位将停工二个月.
4. -美西250名专家开会研究港口和码头如何应对地震和海啸.
四：海难 (Casualty)
1. -德国货轮 ‘Colombo Express’ 和新加坡旗 ‘Maersk Tanjung’ 9月29日在苏伊士运河北部进口处相撞. 前者船身左舷被撞凹进20米. 南北航线运作因此被阻多时.
五：买卖/租贷 (S/P & Chartering)
1. SALE AND PURCHASE
Bulkers Size Built Buyer Price (Mln$)
Lea 42 842 1985 Middle Eastern 4,00
Nikol H 24 159 1997 Undisclosed 4,50 Bank Sale
Resale Daewoo 5403 114 900 2015 Scorpio 58,00
Resale Daewoo 5402 114 900 2015 58,00
2. SOLD FOR DEMOLITION
Name Size Ldt Built Buyer Price(per ldt)
Jimei Ruyi 71749 9977 1990 Pakistan 492
Mercur 39016 10242 1997 India -----
ABM Challenger 28960 8085 1994 Pakistan 497
Zhong Xiam 23853 8671 1989 India 512
King Brave 23404 7208 1983 India 509
King Merry 20482 5489 1986 India 509
3. CHARTERING- Dry bulk (week #40-2014)
Handy
After the recent weeks' rate increase in the Atlantic we see Panamaxes snapping up handymax and Supra cargoes at much lower levels, putting some pressure to the rates for the Smaxes. We do however still see healthy levels being achieved with a slight increase of USD 200 since last week on the Tarvs. In the Feast, Golden Week is upon us, and we see less activity in the spot and period market. Spore-Indo-India are trading at levels around USD 10k while the nickel ore rounds from Philippines are at USD 7k.
The period market is very quiet this week, much lead by the falling FFA market. Owners are still holding out for levels around USD 12k for 1 year on the Supras, while takers are holding back in the low 11's.
Panamax
Indices are up, and stronger fixtures are done in both hemispheres Just before holidays in India and festival time in China. A steady output of USG grains give owners return of above 15,500 + 550K GBB or close to 45 pmt mid-week. Could reports of deferred rail supply of grains to US ports lead to a prolonged season? Some "pockets" with lack of tonnage in the Atlantic have resulted in significantly stronger fixtures up to and above 8k/day. However, charterers with forward requirements are offering far less returns on voyage. In the Pacific volumes and levels were sliding early_ week, whereas mid-week reports show strong fixtures in the 8k range for NOPAC and above 9k for trips to India. Are we about to see a seasonal Q4 push? On the contrary to the positive signals above, arbitrage and trading is limited. There has been a stable lack of confidence in the forward curve with a subdued period market. 1 year levels are around 9k.
Capesize
Dull and without much direction as iron ore and coal volumes fail to live up expectations. An abundance of prompt tonnage in Far East, not daring to gamble on the long Brazil rounds, compete fiercely for the few stems available ex Australia - with the Dampier/Qingdao conference trade being stuck at around USD 8 pmt or around USD 10k/day. Conditions in the western hemisphere becoming critical, with a distinct lack of activity on both fronthaul and transatlantic - resulting in idled ships and the Tubarao/Qingdao key, route falling close to USD 19 pmt or some USD 19k/day. Period activity remains limited as FFA values presently support no more than USD 18k for good large modern units, a brutal step down from a reported USD 20k recently done on 178k dwt/built 2009 for about 2 years.
CHARTERING-Tankers
Crude VLCC
The VLCC market limbed along recent level for most of the week since last Wednesday until yesterday when owners managed to put a halt to charterers ' rampage. Rate level for VLCC MEG/East was in few hours pushed up some 6 ws-points due to a combination of several reasons such as recent steady activity, several charterers approaching the market at same time, upcoming Chinese Golden Week holiday, to mention a few. Although owners seem to be in the driving seat at the moment more demand is needed as the position list is more than ample. The Atlantic remain fairly quiet with steady, rates levels. The past week proved to be very active for Suezmaxes, especially ex West Africa basis 2nd decade Ocotber laycan. Based on a round trip voyage owners can again enjoy daily return of low USD20K. With still several cargo outstanding for loading during the 2nd decade we expect rate to firm even further.
Market levels ex Med/Blsea also increased in line with the firm sentiment for Suezmaxes in the west. The Nsea and Baltic Aframaxes saw more activity, especially in the Baltic on the back of more fuel oil cargoes being worked in addition to the already steady flow of crude oil volumes. Ships got absorbed one by one and the availability got thinner which in turn caused momentum to slowly turn last week with an upward pressure on rates. In the Med we have seen a long period with slow activity, and the market hit bottom levels at the beginning of this week. At time of writing activity is picking up with more cargoes materializing, and owners holding back a bit more hoping for better rates. Rates are showing signs of recovery but due to a large overhang of tonnage it will take some time before we see decent returns. Caribs market finally showing signs of improvement after moving sideways at bottom levels last week.
Product
EAST: Over the past week there has been very little to get excited about in the East, except for the APPEC parties in Singapore.The LR2 market has remained steady, and rates have barely moved. If anything at all, it has gone down ever so slightly and currently we are assessing the market as steady to softish. From fixing at YTD high-levels a few weeks ago, the LR1 market has during the last week lost out another 10 points and currently looking soft. There is little enquiry from charterers and the que is getting longer and longer outside the GulfThe MR market ex Singapore is looking steady and fixing at the same levels. as last week.
WEST: The big story this week in the West has most definitely been the MR market on the Continent. With a tight position list for the next 10 days and the US craving gasoline we have a surge in freight rates. At time of writing there are rumours in the market of ws150 on su s. As the gasoline arb to the US is not properly open in addition to several ballasters headed for the Continent, this bull market we are seeing might be short-lived. It might be risky ballasting all the way from the USG like this, but on the other hand the arb is closed out of the USG and currently looking very soft. Handies trading x-Med have kept its momentum, and looking possibly even better due to the spiking MR market on the Continent. Otherwise in the West we have seen very little change on the LR2s as supply/demand has remained somewhat unchanged. Still there is a shortage of LR1s out of the Continent, and the few owners in the fixing window are looking at a firm market.
CHARTERING-GAS
Another uneventful in the VLGC market is over, and we can only hope for a more dynamic market at the start of fourth quarter. The spot rates did not change much despite the softer sentiment last week. However, it looks as if relet tonnage will have less impact on rates ahead and the downward pressure on rates may be over already now that independent owners are in a position to take charge. Nonetheless, on the last September day the Baltic VLGC index fell below the magical 100 mark for the first time since beginning of June. It is hard to say whether the index and actual rates will bounce up again after the dip, or whether the fairly oversupplied markets in the East will continue to impact the spot rates negatively. The fleet balance seems to be rather reasonable in October, and in a "normal" month the number of vessels should find sufficient employment to enjoy a healthy 3-digit freight market ahead.
六： 2014(week #40) 远东2004年造二手船平均价值:
种类 油轮 干散货轮 集装箱轮 (teu)
船型 VLCC Suezmax Aframax Cape Pmax Supramax Handy P/Pax Pmax Handy
吨位(万) 31 16 11 18 7.5 5 3 6500 4000 1400
价值(万美元) -0.4% -0.3% -2.4% -0.6% -0.0% -0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
七：2014/09/16船用燃油价格(每吨/usd)
来源: Bunkerworld
IFO 380 __IFO 180 MDO MGO
新加坡 552 568 795 805
鹿特丹 538 563 ----- 775
休士顿 545 660 ----- 905
*****************************************************************************************************
备注: tbn = to be named ldt = light d/weight ton
usd = u.s.dollar mtpa = million ton per annum
cbm =cubic meter tpa =million metric ton per annu
