2015 年航运展望
2015.01.06
一：头条新闻
对航运业来说2015年将带来:
1. 国际公约: 从1月1日燃料油含琉璜量0.1%条例将在北欧, 波罗的海和北美之排气控制区执行.
2. 国际公约:压舱水处理法可能于今年通过明年开始生效.
3. 原油价格暴跌替船东带来好消息
4. 超大型油轮的需求导改每天租金从 2万美金涨到 9.8万.
5. 超大型货箱船将陆续加入亚欧航线和船东联盟的成立.
6. 原油价格暴蚀跌对西方采油工业意味失业.
7. 干散船供过于求驱使船东把货船改为油轮.
What will 2015 hold for the shipping industry?
As we settle back into work on the second day of the New Year Seatrade Global dusts off its crystal ball and takes a look at what 2015 may hold in store for the shipping industry.
The first change of 2015 happened at the stroke of midnight on 1 January when 0.1% sulphur limits for bunker fuel came into force in the North Europe, Baltic and North American Emission Control Areas (ECAs). The move will cause some operational issues for owners and there have been warnings of increased engine failures, as has been seen in California where the regulation is already in place.
Also on the regulatory front from 2015 should see the ratification of the Ballast Water Management Convention with it coming into force the following year. Meanwhile IMO secretary-general Koji Sekimizu has already put passenger ferry safety high on the agenda for the coming year.
An unexpected event coming into 2015 was the crude oil price having fallen to $53 per barrel. This is good news for shipowners across the board in terms of cheaper bunker fuel prices.
It has had a particularly positive impact on the tanker market, with VLCCs closing in on the $100,000 a day level at the end of 2014 and delivering the best average rates across the year since 2010. A continued period of low oil prices would be good news for tanker owners in 2015 driving up demand and potentially heralding a much needed year of profitable rates.
For container shipping the drop in the bunker price will be especially welcome, and it remains to be seen if slow steaming will remain the order of the day. The coming year is marked by two other factors – the ultra large containership and the mega-alliance.
The rapid growth in size of vessels is set to continue with MSC Oscar to take the crown as the world’s largest boxship at 19,224 teu when it is launched this month. However, it could yet be trumped UASC’s vessels under construction at Hyundai Heavy Industries according to Alphaliner.
On the alliance front this month is set to see the roll out of 2M and Oceans Three joining the existing CKYHE and G6 alliances to dominate the main east – west trades. Whether these arrangements will enable lines to improve profitability or simply erode rates further will watched keenly in the industry.
Dry bulk is facing a less than rosy picture after the much expected rally at in the second half of 2014 largely failed to materialise and the Baltic Dry Index closed on 24 December at just 782 points, well the break even point. Overcapacity continues to dog the sector and in telling sign for might lie ahead in mid-December the aggressively expanding product tankers.Scorpio Bulkers converted six capesize newbuildings contracts into LR2
A sector the lower oil price will not be good for is the one that has been the darling in recent years – offshore marine. At $53 per barrel E&P spending by oil companies is bound to take a hit especially for more marginal field developments. There have already been warnings at the North Sea oil industry is close to collapse and warnings of waves of job losses. Meanwhile in the US Excelerate Energy's plans for a floating LNG export plant in Lavaca Bay, Texas have been put on hold.
This is not good news for the shipyard sector, which in recent years has put a strong emphasis on offshore as conventional shipbuilding orders slumped. The coming year can be expected to see a continued restructuring of the Chinese shipbuilding sector where the major yards are set to dominate. Japan has been the surprise success story in shipbuilding over the last year, but it has been heavily reliant on eco-design bulkers, which could see lower demand given current dry bulk market conditions.
Friday, 02 January 2015 08:47
Chinese Oil Buying Sends Tanker Rates Skyrocketing 油价大跌中国大买油推高油轮租金…………
09/01/2015
Not long ago, I told readers about all the oil floating at sea, stored on oil tankers just waiting for higher prices or a buyer.
Well, now some of that of oil is on the move… to China.
The beneficiaries of this development are many of the same shipping companies I mentioned before, particularly any company that is involved in the now-lucrative Asian oil tanker route.
Rates on that route have climbed to nearly $100,000 per day – a level not seen since 2008!
Steadily Stockpiling 中国政府稳定的增加战略储备油
Right now oil is at a year-end clearance sales price, and China is taking advantage.
The country tends to think in terms of years, not months, and leaders believe oil prices won’t stay down for long. Thus, it’s using the current dispute between Saudi Arabia and U.S. shale oil producers to fill its strategic petroleum reserve for cheap.
Bloomberg reports that, as of December 12, 2014, there were a record 83 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) filled with oil heading toward Chinese ports.
China also recently revealed that the first phase of its oil inventory buildup is over, with 91 million barrels stored at four different sites.
Now it seems China is buying oil for its so-called “second phase of oil inventory accumulation,” and has already stockpiled an additional 80 million barrels.
The country has stated in the past that its intent is to have a reserve of at least 500 million barrels of oil in place by 2020. For comparison, the United States’ strategic oil reserve has a capacity of 727 million barrels.
China’s Blueprint 中国政府的计划
This buying isn’t really surprising. The last time China went on such an oil-buying spree was during the 2009 financial crisis, when oil prices were also down in the dumps.
Much of that 91-million-barrel first phase was filled at that time. China is simply following the blueprint that any other commodity buyer would — buy when prices are low.
The result for oil will likely be a bottoming out sooner than most on Wall Street expect. It’s basic economics – higher demand leads to higher prices.
Oil Tanker Rates on the Up 油轮租金一路上涨
This higher demand for oil is great for the oil tanker companies, which are happily making hay while the sun is shining and the sea is calm.
Current rates are a far cry from a mere six months ago. At that time, many ship owners couldn’t even cover their operating expenses of about $20,000 a day.
Part of the reason for the higher rates is logistics. The route to China is simply longer (tying up ships for longer) from the Middle East and West Africa compared to shipping oil to Europe or the United States.
Nordic American Tankers (NAT), which owns 20 Suezmax crude oil tankers, has been a constant traveler of this route lately. Appropriately, its stock is up more than 30% from its October 2014 low.
And let’s not forget that the oil storage trade is still alive and growing, with OPEC refusing to cut production and U.S. oil output on the rise.
Add to that, a limited number of new oil tankers are entering the market in the foreseeable future.
It looks like the good times for oil tanker companies may be here for a while.
And “the chase” continues,
Source: Wall Street Daily
中日两国油轮公司新年计划
招商局能源运输股份有限公司通过转首市场收购了10艘超大型油轮(VLCC)。
2014年12月31日，招商局能源运输股份有限公司（下称招商轮船）发布公告，“China VLCC” 公司通过转首市场收购了10艘超大型油轮(VLCC)。
根据公告，招商轮船于2014年11月19日发布《关于油轮合资公司项目进展情况的公告》，公告本公司持股51%的控股子公司China VLCC通过其下属全资单船公司完成收购七艘VLCC油轮，并接收公司使用2012年非公开发行股票募集资金订造的第一艘节能环保型VLCC。自2014 年11月19日至本公告发布之日，China VLCC通过其下属全资单船公司完成收购10艘VLCC油轮,10艘VLCC从中国船舶工业贸易公司、广州中船龙穴造船有限公司、Crystal Shipping、Nappa Shipping、Agate Shipping、中国长江航运集团南京油运股份有限公司、苏美达国际技术贸易有限公司、Nanjing D One Shipping、Nanjing W Two Shipping等公司收购，船舶完工时间从2008年至2014年之间。
截止目前，招商轮船通过China VLCC持有并营运中的VLCC油轮达到28艘。
两家日本公司计划合并VLCC船队
2014-12-30 07:40
|
据外电报道，日本公司出光兴产（Idemitsu Kosan）和昭和壳牌（Showa Shell）日前确认，正在进行合并谈判， 以应对日本原油需求长期下滑的趋势和低油价环境。 |
其他新闻 (Other News)
长荣海运包租6艘超级大型集装箱船
2014-12-26 09:02
台湾长荣海运（Evergreen Line）表示，公司通过新造船包租合同，将把 6 艘18,000-teu 级超级大型集装箱船纳入到自有船队或其所属的 “CKYHE联盟（中国中远集装箱运输有 限公司、日本K-Line,台湾阳明海运股份有限公司、韩国韩进航运、台湾长荣海运）” 船队上。
该公司近日表示，正期待，通过“CKYHE联盟”合作体系，将能够有效地经营相关超级大型集装箱船，从而期待成本节省及高收益业绩。
据了解，长荣海运计划在年内选择提供相关新造船的其他船东，交付期或安排在2017年之后。该公司并表示，相关项目是公司的长期包租扩大项目一环，正在包租中的集装箱船一到期就被此次船舶替代。
另外，根据近日报道，长荣海运或在年内签署11艘超级大型集装箱船新造合同，该公司正在计划通过其他船东订造相关船舶，新船舶的交付期安排为2017年之后，另外6艘备选船舶也正在寻找泊位档期。根据相关计划，造船厂已经提交了早期竞标提案。
二：造船 (New Building)
厦船重工全球最大汽车滚装船将出坞
相当于10个标准足球场大的甲板可装载8500辆汽车漂洋过海。本周六，由厦门船舶重工股份有限公司制造的全球最大汽车滚装船就将出坞，这意味着滚装船的主体结构已经全部搭建完成。
昨天，中国工程院重大咨询项目——“中国海洋工程与科技发展战略研究（二期）”项目组的多位专家来厦，在厦船重工的船坞内提前目睹这艘“巨无霸”的全貌。
据说，这艘目前全球最大的滚装船的停车总面积达71000平方米，一次性可装载8500辆汽车。
换成具体参数来看，船身总长199.9米，垂线间长192米，型宽36.5米，设计吃水9.35米。
这艘“巨无霸”最大的特点是“能装”，除了能装轿车、卡车，还能装公路拖车、翻斗拖车等各种重型工程车。据介绍，“出船坞”对正在建造的船舶来说是个 关键节点，这意味着这艘船的主体结构已全部搭建完成，可以“封顶”，接下来将靠岸进行“内部装修”，预计明年4月可交付使用。
三：港口和引航 (Terminal/Pilotage)
1. 两次获得 ‘柳辉船长奖学金’之2007年集美航海学院优秀毕业生于龙鸣同学于2014年考取引航员证书后派往厦门港引航站工作.( 图: 于同学在外轮上工作).
2.中国籍轮船 “华龙海” 轮安全靠泊南通吉宝重工有限公司码头, 南通引航再次刷新天生港专用航道 “T”型靠泊船舶新记录。
“华龙海”轮船长181.9米，型宽43.6米，吃水6.6米，属于多用途特种运输船舶，可装载驳船、模块等特殊大件。此次是继去年首次将船长142.8米的“远景”轮“T”型靠泊吉宝码头后的又一次成功创新。
近期，新加坡吉宝集团委托吉宝（南通）船厂有限公司建造的海工产品已完成各分段的制造，计划统一运驶往新加坡进行组合整装。由于此次发运的产品数量多 达13件、重量达 7,608 吨，而且形状尺寸不一，装载计划分为三个阶段进行，即先“T”行靠泊吊装作业，然后移至 #5锚地下潜装载，再 “T” 型回靠吉宝码 头吊装作业，最后载运出江。为此南通引航站在总结以往经验的基础上，制定了详细周密的引航方案和应急预案，站领导带领业务科负责人、资深引航员多次到现场察看，详细了解码头前沿最新水深，不断优化靠泊作业方案，并对码头下一步安全接靠作业作了专业化指导。引航站选派技术精湛、经验丰富的高级引航员带队引领，利用高平潮时间靠船减缓水流对船舶靠泊作业影响，落实了特殊情况下的安全处置措施。
2015-01-04
3. “中海环球”号抵达英格兰: 据 英国《每日邮报)1月7日报道，世界最大的集装箱船“中海环球”号抵达英格兰东南部萨福克郡的费利克斯托港。这艘体型巨大的货轮一经抵达就引来无数人围观。“中海环球”货轮长 400米，宽54 米，约10层楼高，船体超过4个标准足球场，可装载19100个集装箱。此次航行是“中海环球”的首航，它从中国上海出发，前往欧洲四国。
4. 青岛港12月份卸了16条30万吨级的油轮
油价跌得有多快？一船油运过来，路上就跌去4000万美元！
我国每年进口将近3亿吨原油，油价的降低直接意味着外汇支出的减少。国际油价暴跌，对于石油对外依存度已达58%的中国来说，正是储油的好时机。市场监测数 显示，从几个月前开始，中国就加大了原油进口量，并且这一进口速度已经在近期达到历史高峰，那么实际上，港口的情况是不是如此呢？记者来到青岛港口的时候，两艘超大型油轮，刚刚停靠码头，开始卸油作业。这两艘船都是世界上最大载重级别的油轮，比航空母舰都要大得多，它们的长度都超过300米，吨位在30万吨左右，相当于200万桶原油的装运量，全部卸完要花上整整两天时间。
孟 队长在青岛港干了25年的码头调度，从来没见过这么繁忙的时候。仅12月份，他就负责卸了16条30万吨级的大船，一个月的卸油量达到327万吨，而码头 上的繁忙只是庞大进口量的冰山一角，就在眼前这些船进行作业时，还有很多我们看不见的船，在外海里的锚地等待，由于冬季风浪大，无法出海拍摄，不过记者在调度室里找到了这些满载原油的大船。
这是青岛港的一张实时电子海图，我们在屏幕上可以看到从码头到锚地，都密密麻麻分布着各类运输船舶,这是一艘从阿曼到港的船，船长是330米，吨位是28万吨，而像这样吨位的运油船，外锚地里还有至少五艘在等待，那么在未来一周这五艘船都完成卸油，就会有140万吨以上的原油通过青岛港进入到国内。
青岛港调度中心值班主任于健：12月份船还是比较多的。12月份基本上就是说，到港船和在港船都是满负荷运转。进口原油激增的时候，国际市场上，油价也在以惊人的下跌速度，刷新着各大贸易商的成本。
12月份，国际油价正在向50美元突破，相对于7月份100美元的价格，同样一桶油，半年就便宜了一半。与此同时，我国2014年12月的原油总进口量达到3037万吨，相当于每日超过700万桶。而半年前的2014年7月，海关数据显示中国原油进口量仅为2375万吨，半年就增长了30%。
四：买卖/租贷 (S/P & Chartering)
1. SALE AND PURCHASE
Name Size Built Buyer Price (Mln$)
Cape Endurance 109675 2011 Teekay 49.00
Cape Endeavour 109001 2000 46.00
Cape Enterprise 108650 2011 49.00
Cape Endless 108650 2011 49.00
Diamond Aspire 107617 2008 36.80
STI Heritage 73956 2008 BW Maritime 31.90
STI Harmony 73919 2007 29.40
Bro Anton 16376 1999 Chinese 8.80
Stella Rhapsody 49917 2002 Thailand 8.00
Black Bird 43246 1994 Chinese 6.00
Princess 1 38858 1994 Greek 5.90
Ever Regal 23468 1998 Turkey 6.20
2. SOLE FOR DEMOLATION
Name Dwt Ldt Built Buyer Price (per ldt usd)
RORO Ina 9019 4993 1978 Bangladesh 481
3. CHARTERING- Dry bulk (2015-01-14)
Handy
On a general basis we can say that rates are softening in both hemispheres. Allthough for some specific trades we can see premiums being achieved. In the Atlantic the TA's are down ard Usd 1,200 w-o-w. Fhauls are being fixed below 10k now but bring the owners into a market with a touch more activity., but still it is a declining market. Short rounds with China redly are being fixed in region of 7k, while EC India cgos are fixing_ slightly better 8k. The period market is a bit more active, with Ultramax NB's being fixed ard 10k for the shorter periods.
Panamax
Seems like the panamax market continue on low pace. Atlantic flooded with tonnage and charterers are in the driving seat. Spot requirements being fixed at extremely low levels. Atlantic paying in the mid 6 k now. Atlantic have been the most active hemisphere this week but still on low levels. Some major player entered the market with coa possibilities showing they feel market close to a bottom for now. In all fairness we have to add that low bunker prices contribute to the lower rates as well. Pacific also very slow, paying in the low 6 k range while nopac tic better in the 7k range. The newbuildings continue to pop out from the yards. Owners beeing forced to accept levels for their NB far under breakeven. 1 year periods concluded at mid 7k which is very low. Limited with fronthaul business this week but paying in the high 11 k low 12 k region.
Capesize
The week started with a firmer sentiment, led by a very apparent increase in Atlantic demand. This transpired into stronger fixtures on vessels open on the Continent. The pacific, has struggled to follow suit. There was some rumour of an increase in the West Australian market, but although a couple of vessels attained slightly higher numbers, the market has now retreated to where the week started. The essential Brazil to China trade remains very quiet and the market seems to be flat. On the period front there is some talk, but mostly with hybrid rates, meaning some form of combination between fixed hire and an index linked floating portion.
CHARTERING-Tankers
Crude- VLCC
A very active week as such for the Vlcc's and in the Meg particularly as a steady flow of January cargoes have brought the count up to about 130 and basically finished. Rates have stabilized and levels yielding abt $75k/day for meceast voyages. In the interim, focus is in West Africa as Meg stem confirmations are not due until over the week end. Rates here remain firm and mirrors the earnings in the meg. The main topic is however the widespread interest for Vlcc's on storage to 'play the contango-game' with some 20 ships recently tied up. As we predicted last week activity for Suezmaxes did improve, particularly from West Africa. Rates stabilized at levels yielding in the low usd 50,000 pdpr on a round trip voyage West Africa to Western destinations. In order to maintain present levels we need to see February laycan stems come into play very, soon. In Med/Bsea, rates also stayed at firm levels, not only due to delays in Turkish Strait, but also delays in Weather ports in the Med and several ports in Bsea closed due to weather. Aframax owners trading in the ice ex Baltic enjoy daily earnings close to 90k per day at current rate levels. There is a two tier market in the north as owners with non-ice ships is getting paid about ws50 points less than the vessels with ice class. We expect this market to stay firm going forward as the bad weather in the Atlantic and North Sea seem to continue for the next few days as well. Aframax rates in the Mediterranean and Black Sea has also increased due to weather delays in the area. Charterers looking to secure tonnage with safe itinerary is facing an uphill battle with owners pushing for a premium on rates. We expect this market to stay firm going into February.
CHARTERING-GAS
Activity in the VLGC market picked up quite a bit last week, in addition to some Indian inquires we also saw other IG/East as well as some West to East long hauls. We have repeatedly written before that supply/demand in the VLGC fleet is near balanced hence it takes very few fixtures to hike the freight rates at a good pace once chartering initiative is back. We may see exactly that happening now, a few positions gone and a few more freight inquiries emerging in the market. Unconditional optimism among owners is not quite there yet, though, as crude oil keeps falling and pull napha and LPG values with it - but at least the three months old downward spiral of nominal freight rates may have stopped or even turned upwards. In the event there will be a normal number of spot freight inquiries in February, there is a good chance of VLGC spot rate recovery as the fleet line-up seems modest ahead. The Baltic VLGC has gained some 6-7 % since end of last week and now equivalent to about USD 48,000 per day subsidized by a HFO price below USD 300 per ton.
五： 2015-01-13 远东2005年造二手船平均价值:
种类 油轮 干散货轮 集装箱轮 (teu)
船型 VLCC Suezmax Aframax Cape Pmax Supramax Handy P/Pax Pmax Handy
吨位(万) 31 16 11 18 7.5 5 3 6500 4000 1400
价值(万美元) -0.2% -0.5% +0.2% -4.3% +0.7% -1.4% -16.7% +0.0% +0.4% +0.6%
六：2015/01/15船用燃油价格(每吨/usd)
来源: Bunkerworld
IFO 380 __IFO 180 MDO MGO
新加坡 280 295 480 490
鹿特丹 237 262 ----- 455
休士顿 257 295 ----- 570
*****************************************************************************************************
备注: tbn = to be named ldt = light d/weight ton
usd = u.s.dollar mtpa = million ton per annum
cbm =cubic meter tpa =million metric ton per annu
