2015-08-15 一：头条新闻 德鲁里：须关注中国集装箱货运量 2015-8-11 在中国大宗散货的货运量出现大幅度减少的同时，中国集装箱货运量也出现小幅下滑，虽然后者的下降幅度远比前者来的小，但德鲁里认为后者也同样值得关注，因为通常情况下，中国的增速就意味着世界的增速。 港口吞吐量与经济的增长有着密切联系，因此可以通过研究中国经济的发展趋势来推测中国港口吞吐量的发展趋势。此次国际货币基金组织（IMF）在其最新的全 球经济展望（World Economic Outlook）中依旧预测2015、2016年中国GDP增速保持6.8%和6.3%不变。虽然这仍然是其他绝大多数国家难以企及的增长速度，但是德鲁里却反而唱衰中国经济以及全球集装箱货运量。 由于中国港口数据有限的对外透明度，外界很难得知中国集装箱进出口状况的真实面貌，但如果按WTO的商品贸易数据来进行推测，中国集装箱进口量约占全球的40%至50%之间。 如果这里假定这是一个比较准确、客观的数据，再以此为依据梳理，就会发现中国集装箱进口量增速要低于全球平均水平。以去年为例，德鲁里预测的中国集装箱进口量增速只有1.6%，而出口量增速却达到9.1%，因此总的货运量的增速还能维持在5.6%不变。 在内需不振的背景下，德鲁里将今年中国港口货物吞吐量增速从5.8%下调至4.9%，这也意味增量由此将减少185万TEU，这个数字是2014年全球集装箱货运量的1%。 来自中国船检 二：造船 (Ship building) Liftboat：低迷海工市场中的一抹亮丽 2015-8-12 在目前低迷的海工市场环境下，全球各类海工装备均成交惨淡，但是近来自航自升式多功能服务平台（Liftboat）成交量却夺人眼球。7月份 先是新加坡 Triyards获得2座Liftboat，紧接着招商局重工接获天津海恒4座LiftBoat，月末吉宝远东又与Crystal Heights敲定一份Liftboat建造合同，单月成交量高达7座。除此之外，自2014年下半年油价下跌以来，Liftboat成交量已累计达到 16座，远高于油价下滑之前水平，成为备受瞩目的海工产品。 Liftboat是一种多功能海上服务平台，拥有宽敞的甲板，可以布置和运输多种功能模块，能够单独或配合海上平台完成连续油管修钻井、平台设施检修、油 田增产等海上作业。相对于从事同类作业的海洋工程装备，Liftboat具有相当的比较优势。首先，相较一般海上作业船只，Liftboat具有类似于自 升式钻井平台的升降桩腿，保证了海上作业的稳定性和安全性，能够适应更为恶劣的海况，扩大作业窗口，减少停工时间，提升作业效率。其次，相比于采用自升式 钻井平台进行修井作业的方式，Liftboat租赁费用较低，避免了高价租用钻井平台进行小规模修井、海上施工作业的资源和资金浪费，同时配备的推进系统 又避免了海上拖曳作业，进一步降低了成本，使得Liftboat的使用更为灵活。 尽管具有如此多的优势，但Liftboat的广泛应用仅局限于其诞生地——美国墨西哥湾，该地区目前集聚了全球80%以上的Liftboat。究其原因， 除1985年墨西哥湾飓风造成大量Liftboat损坏阻碍了国际社会对该船型的认可外，主要原因是在墨西哥湾以外，油公司出于普遍存在的保守策略，不愿 尝试使用未在全球普及的Liftboat进行海上作业。特别是在油价高企时，油公司专注于以增加勘探开发投资来攫取更多地利润。但是随着2014年下半年 油价断崖式下跌，油公司放弃了此前的经营策略，转而致力于以降低成本、提升作业效率来维持经营。在此背景下，Liftboat凭借其灵活高效的海上作业优 势成为油公司关注的重点。与此同时，ABS等机构针对Liftboat多次制定相关规范，技术逐步成熟，确保了Liftboat的安全性和可靠性；并且部 分油公司也已经在墨西哥湾以外地区成功应用Liftboat，共同促进了国际社会对Liftboat的认可。 时势造英雄，Liftboat借本轮油价下滑之期一跃而起，突破不被认可的瓶颈，成为目前的焦点海工产品，展望未来，其市场前景相当广阔。从船队分布来 看，美国墨西哥湾地区分布量为240座，服务于3257座平台，比例为1:14，而东南亚、西非、中东总量却仅有54座，服务于3266座平台，比例为 1:60，远不及应用成熟的墨西哥湾地区。 同时随着老油田EOR（提高采收率）作业、平台与水下设施检修作业以及海上风电安装作业的增多Liftboat将迎来属于自己的一片广阔天空。 由于其建造方式与自升式钻井平台类似，Liftboat的火爆目前已经吸引了众多自升式钻井平台建造企业进入。新加坡吉宝和胜科两个全球最大的自升式钻井 平台建造企业已先拔头筹，开始设计和建造Liftboat，拥有自升式钻井平台建造经验的招商局重工也已经承接多座Liftboat订单，甚至部分OSV 企业也开始觊觎Liftboat建造市场。 应该说，liftboat是当前海工市场低迷期的价值洼地，有志于进入的企业可抓住机遇一搏。但值得警惕的是在 市场需求总量有限的情况下，更多的进入者将使得其竞争异常激烈，建议海工建造企业加强对市场的跟踪研究，吸取业务发展中的经验和教训，科学审慎决策，防范 可能产生的相关风险。 来自中国船舶工业经济与市场研究中心

三：港口(Terminal)

振华重工获全球最大自动化码头订单

2015-8-11

8月10日，振华重工发布公告，全球最大的集装箱全自动化码头——上海洋 山港四期自动化码头项目向公司采购自动化装卸设备，总金额约为1.74亿美元，预计将于2016 年至2017年间交付。这是振华重工继厦门远海自动化码头、青岛港自动化码头后，在国内中标的第三个自动化码头项目。 本次中标的10台岸桥和30台自动化轨道吊，分布在3个泊位上。其中的15台自动化轨道吊是振华重工世界首创的双箱自动化轨道吊，一次可同时起吊两个集装箱，效率提高一倍，这也是该类新型轨道吊首次投放市场。 洋山港四期自动化码头计划建设7个泊位，设计年吞吐量630万标箱，此次为先期设备订单，码头后续还有设备采购。待设备全部交付使用后，届时，上海港的年吞吐量将突破4000万标箱，成为全球吞吐量最大的码头，同时也有利于进一步提升上海自贸试验区口岸的通关效率。

四：海难(Casualty)

五：买卖/租贷  2015-08-14 (S/P & Chartering)

1.SALE AND PURCHASE
Name                Size      Built   Buyer           Price(Mln$)
Tankers
Front  Glory        149834    1995    Far Eastern     16.00
SN Azzuma           72365     2003    Greek           12.45
Amber Ray           19728     2005    Nordic Tankers  21.00
 
Bulkers
Churchill  Bulker   179600    2011    Marmaras        37.00
Umberto D’Amato    92500     2011    Unknown         14.70
Rondeau             77031     2006    Greek           13.80
Star Natalie        73798     1998    Chinese          4.20
Aston Trader II     55496     2008    Greek           13.00
Aristo River        33632     2005    Swiss            9.50
Santa Francisca     28494     2001    ITC              5.30
Pacific Wind        28437     2007    Vietnamese       8.60
 
2.SOLE FOR DEMOLATION
Name               Dwt       Ldt     Built   Buyer     Price(per ldt usd)
Solidamosc         73470     13610   1991    Pakistan         370
Bulk Discovery     69346     9977    1989    Bangladesh       368
Zim Pacific        45850     16900   1996    Indian           395
Baltic Stream      12570     7080    1980    Bangladesh       400
 
3.TIME CHARTERING-TANKER     2015.08.14
Type         Period      Rate US$(pdpr)
             One year    Two years    3 years     5 years
VLCC         50,000      45,000       42,500      40,000
Suezmax      35,000      33,500       32,500      30,000
Aframax      27,000      26,500       26,500      24,000
Handy        16,800      16,000       14,750      14,500
 
4.TIME CHARTERING-DRY BULK   2015.08.14
Type                  4-6 months          One year           Two years Rate US$(pdpr)
                     Atlantic Pacific    Atlantic Pacific    Atlantic Pacific
Cape size (180k’)   14,500   14,500     15,000   15,250     15,850   15,850
Pnmx/Kmax (76-82k’) 10,150   8,500      10,000   8,750      10,500   9,900
Supramax (56k’)     10.000   9,000      10,250   8,750      10,000   9,700
Handy (32k’)        6,700    6,950      6,350    7,300      7,550    7,750

CHARTERING- VLCC (2015-08-12)

On volumes it has been a very quiet week for the VLCC's both ex Meg and also in West Africa. The monthly count for August ex Meg is some 20 behind same time last month. Despite the ongoing delays In the east, causing some prompt replacements, the list of tonnage with safe itineraries is growing daily.

Charterers have therefore regained some control of the momentum and have taken a big step back to add pressure on the rates. The rates have come off the peaks and are under pressure both in Meg and West Africa but are still yielding abt $70k/day for Meg and West Africa to East, but could soften further in the near term. For the Suezmaxes the week started on a slow note with limited activity ex West Africa , despite expectations of more 2nd decade cargoes to come into play. Charterers have kept on drip-feeding this market with firm cargoes and thereby managing to stabilize the rates.

There has however been more activity in the Caribs which has depleted the tonnage list for West Africa. In the Blsea/Med there was improved activity at the end of last week, but with each firm cargo receiving ample offers for this fixing window, the sentiment here has softened. Aframax owners in the Nsea and Baltic faced a slow market last week, and with plenty of available ships around for the few cargoes quoted rates declined. At time of writing the situation remains unchanged, and with the market lacking any momentum, no recovery is in sight in the short term. Med and Bsea proved to be more busy than it seemed at first glance last week. A combination of hidden activity and some replacement cargoes gave this area enough optimism to remain at more healthy levels than we experienced in the North. Quite a few ships discharging at Italian ports are delayed due to bad weather, hence the tonnage list seems tight for any cargoes loading in the 8-12 August window and we expect rates to firm in the short term.

CHARTERING- Dry bulk (2015-08-12)

Capesize

The Capesize market firmed up this week, driven mainly by strong front-haul market and firm pacific fixtures. West Australian market moved up slightly with fixtures concluded at $6.15 on Monday and jumped up to $6.30 on Tuesday. Wednesday saw an overall positive Australian market with prompt fixtures heard done close to mid-$6. The front-haul TCT market for Brazil/China r/v moved from USD 14,000 level on Monday to USD 16,500 Tuesday and the voyage rate Tubarao to Qingdao peaked in excess of $16.00. Front-haul market on Wednesday continued its firm stance. Few TA fixtures were concluded this week but this does not seem to affect the positive outlook on front-haul.

Panamax

After last weeks positive developments ended subdued, this week started in an unclear direction with paper trading up while physical was inactive. Further in the week tonnage list grew longer in the east overweighing demand and seeing rates slip with pac rounds being concluded around 7k. E co kamsarmaxes getting high 8 k for Nopac. Front-haul has been thin with what little done at levels below last. Grain still the driver. Also Atlantic have seen less activity and lower rates, owners ask 11k while TA being concluded at closer to 10k level. The few active takers for period are holding back and not rating expecting rates to slip further. Short term we expect market will drop further before a new floor established.

Handy

Rates coming off from last week. USG to east med for handy paying USD 25. Modern 35k vessel getting low USD 14k for Re calada to North Spain. Short periods del US Atlantic redel ww paying low 9 k. Fertilizer from Baltic to Brasil fixed at sub USD 20 for 46.00 10pct stem. Ramadan ended with less fresh cargoes than expected. Ultramaxes getting like 10k+ for Indonesia/E rounds. Nopac round to Indonesia for Supra concluded at 8k + bb. North China vessels being fixed in the high 5/low 6k levels for backhaul trips.

CHARTERING- Gas (2015-08-12)

It has been a very quiet week in the largest vessels' segment, even the Indian charterers have held their cargoes the last few days. The Baltic VLGC index has continued its downward trend - the last 10 quotation days the index has come off some 15%, however, clearly on anticipation that the next fixture(s) should be a lot cheaper than the previous ones.

The list of relets to the market has been growing steadily and therefore we see they outnumber the availabilities from the

independent owners in August. Supply and demand of vessels are the main drivers at it seems the supply is bigger than the demand now that the FOB/CFR delta between MEG and the East is still too narrow, not to mention the spot arbitrage from the West to the East being fully shut. There are rumours in the market that a handful September FOB cargoes in the USG have been cancelled by their respective lifters as the trade does not make sense and it is a better solution to pay the cancellation fee than to lift. On the positive side we have seen the HFO prices come down from USD 320's to 290's which compensates for USD 1.50 pmt on a MEG to Far East run. On the hardware side; VLGC NB no 14 of the year has just been delivered. In addition the MGC orderbook has had a 2 vessel addition last week - bringing the MGC orderbook to 28, equal to 38.4% of existing fleet 73 vessels.

六： 2015-08-12  远东2010年造二手船平均价值:

种类                       油轮                            干散货轮                           集装箱轮         (teu)

船型        VLCC   Suezmax   Aframax   Cape   Pmax   Supramax    Handy    P/Pax    Pmax    Handy   

吨位(万)             31          16           11          18         7.5            5           3         6500     4000      1400  

价值(万美元)    -0.0%   -0.0%     -0.00%    +1.0%     +1.3%    -0.0%     -0.0%    -0.3%  -1.3%   -1.5% 

七：2015/08/15船用燃油价格(每吨/usd)

来源: Bunkerworld

                                IFO 380           __IFO 180            MDO           MGO    

新加坡                       284                     294                   446              456

鹿特丹                       267                     293                   -----              453

休士顿                       261                     317                   -----              498

 

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备注:     tbn         = to be named                       ldt          = light d/weight ton

usd        = u.s.dollar                           mtpa        = million ton per annum               

cbm       =cubic meter                           tpa        =million metric ton per annu