VFB #229 - 伊朗救造船业? 2016.01.31

伊朗救造船业?  

2016.01.31

一：头条新闻

伊朗千亿美元船舶订单青睐中国，靠谱吗？

2016-1-20

之前国内盛传一个说法，制裁解除后伊朗投放出1200亿美元新造船订单，其中绝大部分将在中国订造，一举拯救中国造船业，昨天笔者与一位伊朗业内人士交流，正好谈及此事，他觉得这说法很可笑，首先伊朗之前被冻结的资产也不过千亿美元，这其中70%是资金，30%的财产，而即使是这70%伊朗也要做很多事，包括技术引进在内，包含飞机采购，虽然可以采用融资方式，但在油价低迷的当下肯定要省着点花。 其次，中国造的船质量不好，之前很多项目是收到中国的政策性融资贷款政策才在中国建造，并且因为每年有大量的石油款项都是由人民币结算并且大多存再中国的银行内，迫于无奈只能用这些钱采购中国制造的产品，而一旦制裁解除，则选择将非常多，比如韩国造船业，不但质量比中国好得多。 另外，关于韩国，他认为还有一个主要优势，那就是韩国的一些基金甚至可以提供0利率融资，过去不被看好的伊朗国有企业长约在制裁解除后都将成为优质长约，为伊朗的融资需求带来很多便利，而相反，中国银行金融体系线条冗长且效率低下，在对待伊朗国有企业长约的问题上远不 如日韩甚至欧洲反应的那么快，因此中国就更不会成为首选。 此外，他表示伊朗还将努力发展本国的造船业，中国造船的优势是政府和企业不计成本的大投入建造大量船坞和船台，伊朗肯定不能也不会这样发展，但是伊朗也会提升造船能力，伊朗造船在工艺标准上沿用德国70年代的标准，而这个标准直到现在都比中国的标准来得高。 当问起如何伊朗企业会出于完全自愿订造中国船时？他表示，除非中国船的价格便宜到让人难以拒绝的程度，而质量再有适当提升，但即使这样中国获得的订单也应该是相应的，而远非什么绝大多数。

 长荣集团创办人张荣发今日辞世 享寿89岁

2016-1-20 据台湾媒体报道，长荣集团创办人暨总裁张荣发先生，于今(20)日上午11时05分安详辞世，享寿89岁。长荣集团表示，全体员工闻此噩耗，皆感到痛心与不舍。 有“世界船王”之称的张荣发，1968年从一艘中古船白手起家创立长荣海运，后来又在1989年成立长荣航空，至今拥有200多艘货柜船、70多架飞机，去年海空运营收规模均破千亿，并以540亿身价，名列《富比士(Forbes)》台湾富豪榜第18名。 张荣发在日治时代出生在宜兰苏澳，没有显赫家世与学历，7岁举家迁至基隆，14岁进入日本船公司后半工半读，由基层的用务员做起，后来凭藉自己苦读，成功转型成为航海技术人员，并陆续考上三副、升上大副。经历15年航海生涯后，才决定创业。 张荣发曾经多次捐助大陆赈灾，并曾力挺“九二共识”，呼吁两岸和平。 张荣发近几年健康状况欠佳，很少公开露面，旗下事业早就交由专业经理人打理，幺子张国炜是惟一在集团任职的第二代。他过世消息在盘中传出后，长荣、长荣航股价并未出现明显波动，接近收盘时下跌幅度约2%至3%，主要还是受到亚股全面重挫，连带冲击台股大跌约150点影响。

 美国大湖型散货船货运量跌至2009年以来最低

2016-1-21

美国大湖型散货船2015年货运量为8720万吨，比2014年减少了3.3%。此前最低货运量出现在2009年，为6650万吨。 据大湖型散货船协会（LCA），2015年铁矿石、煤炭和矿砂的货运量都在下降，而石灰石、水泥和谷物则有所收益。 其中矿砂的货运量下降了15%至32万吨。铁矿石运量下跌10.4%至4090万吨，是2009年以来最低水平。煤炭运量总计1765万吨，减少不到1%。 石灰石运量上升近8%，达到了2310万吨，是2008年以来最高水平。水泥运量上升了6.3%至345万吨。谷物运量上涨37%至35万吨。盐类货物则和2014年持平，为140万吨。

日本大岛造船获一般木片运输船订单

2016-1-21 日本邮船日前表示，已经投放一艘木片运输船 (Wood chip Carrier)订单给日本大岛造船。 日本邮船已与日本北越纪州制纸达成一艘新造木片运输船的长期租船协议。 据悉，这艘木片运输船预计将在2018年交付。根据设计，该船将能够装载430万立方英尺的木片，并将采用最新环保设计及电控发动机系统。 据了解，日本邮船与北越纪州制纸已达成6艘木片运输船的长租租约，这也是北越纪州制纸有史以来签订的最大规模租约。

 金海重工第4艘VLCC提前70天出坞

2016-1-21

1月20日上午，金海重工第4艘32万吨原油轮J0211船在江南山基地7#船坞举行出坞仪式。经了解，该船出坞时间较生产计划提前了70天，再次彰显了金海速度。  作为金海重工同系列VLCC的最后1艘，江南山基地广大干部员工向J0211船倾注了大量心血，通过合理制定计划与充分准备，该船实现了高速、提前生产的状态。而决定该船能否提前出坞的关键因素，是配套物资能否提前到达，尤其是主机等关键设备。在全面梳理出急需设备后， 李春楼副总监亲自带领物资部、生产运行部等部门干部，前往上海、南通的设备厂家协调急需设备提前交货，最终各项急需设备于1月7日全部到厂。 在各部门的紧密安排、协同合作下，J0211船在3天内完成主机吊装，两周内又实现出坞，且比生产计划足足提前了70天，又一次刷新了金海记录。值得一提的是，该船出坞完整性达到历史最佳，原拟于码头调试的机舱系统已提前完成内检17项、外检13项，将直接缩短码头周期。 同时，张天弋副总监组织各部门上船进行大扫除，焕然一新迎出坞。 后续，江南山基地将借鉴“天津”号码头建造经验，进一步缩短J0211船码头周期，为实现提前交付“争分夺秒”。

二：买卖/租贷  2016-01-27 (S/P & Chartering)     

1. SALE AND PURCHASE

Name              Size      Built   Buyer        Price (Mln$)
Tankers
TRF Oslo          45562     2014    UACC          38.00
Ebtank Germany    35407     1999    Greek          9.80
Dragonaria        6555      1998    Taiwan         3.20

Bulkers
Hanjin Busan      179800    2016    Undisclosed     35.30
Eternity Island   81305     2012    Undisclosed     13.60
Salvatore Cafiero 75668     2001    Chinese          3.50
Hudson Trader 1   58129     2009    Vita Management  7.50
Great Dream       58129     2004    Undisclosed      4.80

2. SOLE FOR DEMOLATION

Name               Dwt      Ldt      Built    Buyer      Price (per ldt usd)
Ore Timbopeba      200692   24286    1986     Bangladesh    267
Berge Matterhorn   171928   20884    1996     Bangladesh    263
Taroko             122292   16516    1996     Bangladesh    265
Elite              75473    9997     1996     India         264
Mighty Christos    71678    9759     1997     Pakistan      260
Bravo John         71333    9596     1997     Pakistan      265
Spar Sirius        45402    7779     1996     India         263
Kholmsk            33618    8421     1988     India         260

3. TIME CHARTERING-TANKER     2016.01.27

Type       Period       Rate US$(pdpr)   ______________________
           One year     Two years     3 years     5 years

VLCC       46,000       41,500        39,500      38,500
Suezmax    37,500       36,000        32,500      29,000
Aframax    27,000       27,000        26,000      24,000
Handy      17,250       16,750        15,750      15,000

4. TIME CHARTERING-DRY BULK   2016.01.27

Type                  4-6 months     One year     Two years Rate US$(pdpr)­     
Cape Size            4,500  4,500    5,500  5,500     8,500   8,500
Pnmx/Kmax (76-82k’) 5,500  4,500    6,000  5,000     6,850   6,100
Supramax (56k’)     5,600  4,250    6,000  5,150     6,750   6,000
Handy (32k’)        5,000  4,500    5,500  5,000     5,850   5,800

CHARTERING- Tanker (2016-01-27)

Crude

A week suffering under the oversupply of tonnage. Newbuildings and 'ships-with-needs' has added pressure on rates and despite relatively stable volumes rates have corrected down sharply both in the Meg and also for West Africa/East. A couple of charterers in the Meg have commenced asking for Iran loading, but for the time being not yet workable for all due to outstanding issues like P and I cover. Mid-week the market appears to have found a bottom and increased activity may have halted the falling trend. Further upside in the near term appears however to take some time. As we move in to mid-February fixing dates, the Med-Black sea market has corrected itself some 40 ws-points since the beginning of the year for Suezmaxes. The cargo volume ex Bsea/Med has been limited so far this year and we need to see more cargoes for it to firm up again. In Wafr, the rates have been balancing both north and south of W85 for UKCM discharge, but have now dropped another 5-7,5 points on a West-option cargo. Activity is up in the Middle East as a handful of charterers have come out to play in order to fulfill their 3rd decade requirements. North Sea and Baltic Aframax markets firmed on the back of a busy couple of days beginning of this week. Baltic ice market is now looking stronger than non-ice, and we are expecting a two tier market for the next couple of months with ice in play. Med/Bsea has this week been much like the week before. Turkish straits is still between 4-6 days, owners are taking on cargoes with a minimum earning, and the position list is unfortunately long. However, the consolation for owners at this stage is that the market seems to be at the bottom, there is a steady flow of cargoes, and some owners are looking to ballast out of the Med to take on Nsea cargoes.

CHARTERING- Dry bulk (2016-01-27)

Capesize

Freight rates remain at record low levels, more or less unchanged from last week. Iron ore out of Australia is steady whilst the operations out of Tubarao resumed at the beginning of this week after having been suspended last week due to environmental concerns. Ship owners are faced with difficult questions; To scrap or lay-up tonnage or to continue trading. So far most owners are taking a wait and see attitude, however if present freight- levels remain, the latter may be difficult.

Panamax

Nowhere to hide in the Panamax market with new all-time-lows all across the block. Owners are reluctant to fix the levels offered, and activity is low. Even challenging INL breach or iceclass requirements in the Atl is fixed at the poor levels offered.TA rounds south of 2K on T/C and fronthaul, although at limited pace < 20 pmt from USG and 12 pmt from ECSA. The Eastern hemisphere is slow and affected by holidays down under and in India. Modrn units get < 2K in return, bss APS and waiting days. The only increase we see is in scrapping and poss lay-up. Period market hardly evident, with a few index linked agreements reported. The forward curve is not particulary volatile at 4300 rest of year and 5300 for C ...

Handy

We are breaking records every day now. We are down to levels where lay up costs are more interesting than letting your ship go for another round. Short periods on Tess 58's are fixed in the mid 3's for Feast delivery. Indo rounds are fixing at USD 1,500 bss Spore delivery. Indo/India trips are done at ard USD 2,500 bss APS delivery. In the Atlantic we see the same tendency with rates slipping even further. TA's paying in the mid 3k while USG/Cont can get in the 6k's. The Chinese New Year is approaching and it seems that market players are not too optimistic for the short/medium term. We reckon the 1 year period rate would be at ard 5k flat as owners would hesitate to lock in less for 1 year.

CHARTERING- Gas (2016-01-27)

We do not have much to write about in this week's report, there were few VLGC freight discussions and even fewer fixtures - some vessels have been idle for quite some time. One vessel was fixed above the Baltic index for a laycan only one owner could meet and consequently pulled the index up, however, we believe the index and the actual fixtures should come off modestly from current picture. The news of last week with the sanctions lifted on Iranian LPG exports have not had any market impact yet, most owners have some paperwork to do related to their P and I coverage before they can proceed to Iranian loadports. Besides, there is no shortage of VLGC capacity (13-14 vessels) that have been loading in Iran after 2012 upto now and under the sancion's radar. In the very short term, potential charterers in the MEG sit back and await the announcement of February posted prices that are due in a few days' time. In the USG there are cargoes available that need freight in February and March, but at current the FOB/CFR spreads do not work at all. There are ongoing talks about lifters in the USG considering to cancel their cargoes due to the lack of trade economics, but that "penalty" of a million USD or more per cargo cancelled have so far made lifters defer their final decision. This space is certainly being watched carefully!

三：2016/01/19船用燃油价格(每吨/usd)

来源: Bunkerworld

                                IFO 380           __IFO 180            MDO           MGO    

新加坡                       173                     180                   282              292

鹿特丹                       153                     179                   -----              285

休士顿                       145                     200                   -----              340

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备注:     tbn         = to be named                       ldt          = light d/weight ton

usd        = u.s.dollar                           mtpa        = million ton per annum               

cbm       =cubic meter                           tpa        =million metric ton per annu