“航海日” 帶来的反思
2010.08.31
每年的7月11日是我国的“航海日”, 它的意义是用来记念“郑和七下西洋” 的伟绩丰功.
从明朝到今天我们的航运经过了几百年的低谷, 但现在我们又回到了航海强国的位置, 尤其是近十年来各方面的飞跃猛进, 是一个多么值得广祝和自豪的事实, 对此我们是绝对不能骄傲而止步, 因为虽然发展的 “速度和量” 我们都已做到,但 “质” 的方面我们跟西方国家还是有很大的差距.
近日来国外很多刊物都在报导我国经己成为一个经济和航海強国,但有很多方面仍然需要加强. 例如
China Passes Japan as Second-Largest Economy
The New York Times August 20, 2010
SHANGHAI — After three decades of spectacular growth, China passed Japan in the second quarter to become the world’s second-largest economy behind the United States, according to government figures released early Monday.
The milestone, though anticipated for some time, is the most striking evidence yet that China’s ascendance is for real and that the rest of the world will have to reckon with a new economic superpower.
The recognition came early Monday, when Tokyo said that Japan’s economy was valued at about $1.28 trillion in the second quarter, slightly below China’s $1.33 trillion. Japan’s economy grew 0.4 percent in the quarter, Tokyo said, substantially less than forecast. That weakness suggests that China’s economy will race past Japan’s for the full year.
Experts say unseating Japan — and in recent years passing Germany, France and Great Britain — underscores China’s growing clout and bolsters forecasts that China will pass the United States as the world’s biggest economy as early as 2030. America’s gross domestic product was about $14 trillion in 2009.
“This has enormous significance,” said Nicholas R. Lardy, an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “It reconfirms what’s been happening for the better part of a decade: China has been eclipsing Japan economically. For everyone in China’s region, they’re now the biggest trading partner rather than the U.S. or Japan.”
But while Japan’s economy is mature and its population quickly aging, China is in the throes of urbanization and is far from developed, analysts say, meaning it has a much lower standard of living, as well as a lot more room to grow. Just five years ago, China’s gross domestic product was about $2.3 trillion, about half of Japan’s.
China is already a major driver of global growth. The country’s leaders have grown more confident on the international stage and have begun to assert greater influence in Asia, Africa and Latin America, with things like special trade agreements and multibillion dollar resource deals.
“They’re exerting a lot of influence on the global economy and becoming dominant in Asia,” said Eswar S. Prasad, a professor of trade policy at Cornell and former head of the International Monetary Fund’s China division. “A lot of other economies in the region are essentially riding on China’s coat tails, and this is remarkable for an economy with a low per capita income.”
In Japan, the mood was one of resignation. Though increasingly eclipsed by Beijing on the world stage, Japan has benefited from a booming China, initially by businesses moving production there to take advantage of lower wages and, as local incomes have risen, by tapping a large and increasingly lucrative market for Japanese goods.
This year, although growth has begun to moderate a bit, China’s economy is forecast to expand about 10 percent — continuing a remarkable three-decade streak of double-digit growth.
“This is just the beginning,” said Wang Tao, an economist at UBS in Beijing. “China is still a developing country. So it has a lot of room to grow. And China has the biggest impact on commodity prices — in Russia, India, Australia and Latin America.”
There are huge challenges ahead, though. Economists say that China’s economy is too heavily dependent on exports and investment and that it needs to encourage greater domestic consumption — something China has struggled to do.
Assessing what China’s newfound clout means, though, is complicated. While the country is still relatively poor per capita, it has an authoritarian government that is capable of taking decisive action — to stimulate the economy, build new projects and invest in specific industries.
That, Mr. Lardy at the Peterson Institute said, gives the country unusual power. “China is already the primary determiner of the price of virtually every major commodity,” he said. “And the Chinese government can be much more decisive in allocating resources in a way that other governments of this level of per capita income cannot.”
贸易风月刊 2010.08.04 七大海难震憾中国海上安全
因船队的快速增大, 船东们已经很难找到资深之高级船员而只能雇用资浅或刚领到证书之高级船员. 在风平浪静的时侯一切均平安无事, 但当船或货遇到危险时, 资浅船长所作出之决策恐欠经验和考虑,而直接或间接导致海难之发生. 这种情形在中国已开始显出, 增多和恶化. (图 1).
Seven major blows shake China safety- A series of accidents are raising safety concerns over a rise in fledgling Chinese players.
Concern is growing over the safety management and quality of China’s fast-expanding dry-bulk fleet with TradeWinds analysis showing the country’s ships have been involved in seven major casualties in the past year.
Tanker owner AET says its Bunga Kelana 3 was hit on the port side by the 25,400-dwt bulker Waily (built 1983) at Singapore’s traffic-separation scheme and says its ship was in the correct lane when the accident occurred.
However, AET is now distancing itself from reported comments that it entirely blames the Chinese ship for the collision.
A spokesman for the Waily’s operator, Hong Kong-based Treasure Target Marine, tells TradeWinds that he cannot comment on details of the accident as the company’s lawyers are now involved.
The vessel had recently been switched from the Hong Kong register to the less well-regarded St Vincent & Grenadines register, a blacklisted flag under the Paris MOU.
However, its port-state-control (PSC) record shows no recent detentions.
But the incident is one of a series involving Chinese-controlled bulkers. It comes less than a month after a similar bulker, the 27,000-dwt Sea Success (built 1998) operated by Hong Kong-based owner Li Hai International Shipping, collided with the Mitsui OSK Line (MOL)-controlled, 178,000-dwt capesize Bright Century (built 1997) off the east-coast of China.
The collision led to the loss of the MOL vessel. MOL has not commented on the causes of the accident, which is currently under investigation, but navigational errors by one or both bridges are likely to be factors.
That accident also follows the grounding this year of the Tosco-controlled, 69,000-dwt bulker Sheng Neng 1 (built 1993) in Australia’s Great Barrier Reef with investigators showing that the vessel was off course and sailing through an environmentally protected region.
A Norwegian trial of two officers from the 26,000-dwt Cosco bulker Full City (built 1995), which grounded off Langesund, Norway, in July last year polluting the coast line, found the officers guilty of negligence in responding to the heavy weather and sentenced them to jail.
Casualty analysis by dry-bulk association Intercargo found that three out of nine bulker losses last year were from independent Chinese owners, including the losses of the 61,400-dwt Chang Ying (built 1976) in August, 27,000-dwt Te Hsing (built 1977) in July and 39,800-dwt Wan Shou Shan (built 1989) in October.
Brokers now suggest that not only is China the fastest-growing country in terms of dry-bulk newbuildings but also the largest player in the sale-and-purchase (S&P) market as new owners emerge to take advantage of the country’s booming raw-material import market.
One shipmanager told TradeWinds: “All owners and managers are struggling to get experienced and qualified crew and that is the same for China. It’s just that they are growing faster than everyone else and the cracks are now beginning to show.”
香港华光公司董事长赵世光先生本月20日于贸易风周刊说: “目前航运的情形是被一批投机份子趁运费高涨时想发财所造成.”
对这一点笔者十分同意因年轻时也亲自在这种船上工作过. 投机者一般是以低价买进超龄二手船,以最低费用和最快速度改名字, 注册港和船级社, 最后是略加粉刷然后出海, 只要运气好跑上几个航次便可赚回本钱, 如发生海难即由保险公司负责. 这种草管人命的行为真令人痛心.
海难的发生有2个主要原因:
1. 船只超龄,维修欠妥, 和安全检查不到位等等.
2. 船长和大副之疏忽或大意, 如装卸货秩序不妥导致 Bending moment and Shearing
force 之超出和在恶劣天气作出致命的错误. 如上述之 “Chang Ying” 昌盈号 (1976) 61400-dwt 去年8月于高雄卸煤炭之中因台凤的到来, 奉港务局之命出海避风, 这本是一件很普通的事情但该轮竞于出海后第二天沉没,全部海员遇难. 这是一件非常悲痛之海难, 虽然说出事原因不详,但无论如何希望它不会再次出现于国轮/同胞之身上.
最后寄语同学们在找工作之时必需提高警惕, 如遇到上述情形时最好是避而远之, 如对公司船只和船级社有所疑问时可来信笔者资询.
